7
7point62
Guest
I used to think successful COIN warfare was possible, provided it was done right. But now, after putting a lot of thought into it, I'm not so sure.
I'm guessing--I don't have any real numbers--that you're kind of fucked from the get-go. I'm figuring maybe a 20-25% chance of a successful outcome provided it's done right, and--here's the rub--provided you have 15-20 years to dedicate to the prosecution of the war.
For us Westerners, our people just don't have the patience or the interest to wage a long-term COIN war. They didn't 40 years ago and they sure as shit don't now.
Obviously, some of the elements of COIN doctrine make sense. Like don't piss off the locals. If they don't like you they're going to tell your enemy where your ambush site is. They're not going to be so forthcoming about the location of that IED. If they do come to like you, you stand to gain some valuable intel from them. But you are always going to be the Outlander. Always.
And let's face it. We know and they know that we are not going to be there forever. In fact, in today's world, 8-9 years is about the maximum commitment we are going to see, if that. And they are not going to embrace Americanism or Westernism. It's not going to happen.
I think COIN doctrine needs a major overhaul. Take what makes sense and discard the rest.
Any thoughts?
I'm guessing--I don't have any real numbers--that you're kind of fucked from the get-go. I'm figuring maybe a 20-25% chance of a successful outcome provided it's done right, and--here's the rub--provided you have 15-20 years to dedicate to the prosecution of the war.
For us Westerners, our people just don't have the patience or the interest to wage a long-term COIN war. They didn't 40 years ago and they sure as shit don't now.
Obviously, some of the elements of COIN doctrine make sense. Like don't piss off the locals. If they don't like you they're going to tell your enemy where your ambush site is. They're not going to be so forthcoming about the location of that IED. If they do come to like you, you stand to gain some valuable intel from them. But you are always going to be the Outlander. Always.
And let's face it. We know and they know that we are not going to be there forever. In fact, in today's world, 8-9 years is about the maximum commitment we are going to see, if that. And they are not going to embrace Americanism or Westernism. It's not going to happen.
I think COIN doctrine needs a major overhaul. Take what makes sense and discard the rest.
Any thoughts?