Save the Ukraine

[Scotth]

Their no will in the country regardless of who is sitting in the White House to go to war in Crimeria, Syria, Iran, NK , Russia or anywhere else in the world. That probably isn't going to change for the next President's term even if we get out of Afghanistan this year. That is what Russia sees and that is the same calculus Russia used in Georgia and Crimeria.

Honestly let Russia reconstitute the old empire, I would love to see their empire come crashing down a second time in my life time. If Putin wasn't greedy he would take eastern Ukraine for the obvious strategic importance to Russia. I don't think Putin has the ego to allow him to be satisfied with just makes sense though.

 

[DA SWO]

Their no will in the country regardless of who is sitting in the White House to go to war in Crimeria, Syria, Iran, NK , Russia or anywhere else in the world. That probably isn't going to change for the next President's term even if we get out of Afghanistan this year. That is what Russia sees and that is the same calculus Russia used in Georgia and Crimeria.

Honestly let Russia reconstitute the old empire, I would love to see their empire come crashing down a second time in my life time. If Putin wasn't greedy he would take eastern Ukraine for the obvious strategic importance to Russia. I don't think Putin has the ego to allow him to be satisfied with just makes sense though.

That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?

 

[pardus]

That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?

I honestly don't see that as a viable scenario. Possible? Yeah, but the Krauts aren't going to stand for that again, I think the west would go into mobilize mode pretty quickly.

 

[Scotth]

That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?

I hear what your saying and it is obviously a concern. I don't think we need to be overly worried or at least react in a way that doesn't make sense to our interest. Worse case scenario is Russia doesn't stop in Crimeria and tries to reconstitute the old empire.

At the end of the day Russia would try to reabsorb a bunch of weak countries. The economics of Russia hasn't really changed much since the Soviet Union other then oil. If they have to use their oil money to prop up these weak countries all the better for the US. We all have to remember that Russia is a HUGE country with a lot of borders to protect. With China being there closest adversary, absorbing more countries on the western front doesn't make their job easier on the eastern front, it makes it harder. The oil revenue they are using today to rebuild, is going to be quickly depleted considering the rise in Canadian and US coming power in oil and natural gas exporting and the rise of the Chinese and the weakness of the former Soviet Union countries..

Granted your talking about things that will take decades to play out. If Russia gets greedy it will probably not be stopped by use but it will lead to their eventual down fall and once again and I can only hope it will happen again in my life time.

 

[0699]

That is the part the scares me, what happens when he runs out of Russian Speaking provinces to annex?

They'll invade Poland again.

I honestly don't see that as a viable scenario. Possible? Yeah, but the Krauts aren't going to stand for that again, I think the west would go into mobilize mode pretty quickly.

My brother, Europe gets a shit ton of their natural gas and petroleum from Russia. Not sure how'd well they'd mobilize with no POL.

 

[AWP]

Wonder who we'll appoint to command Army Group Vistula?

 

[pardus]

I think I'm going to watch Stalingrad again tonight.

My brother, Europe gets a shit ton of their natural gas and petroleum from Russia. Not sure how'd well they'd mobilize with no POL.

Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier.

But again, I just don't see Russia as a real threat to the west... at this stage anyway.

 

[Red-Dot]

Looks like this shit sandwich is turning into a shit supper!!

All I can say is line 1-3 N/A, 338ft, Russian Horde, LS 68375235, none, 600m to the east, egress as needed. Call in with heading, all your GBU-31's, instantaneous fuze, expect clearance from Shocker on final. Word to your Mom it's time to drop bombs!!

 

[AWP]

Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier.

The Americas. For example, Germany consumed 44 million barrels in 1938, the UK 76 million barrels, and Russia consumed 183 million barrels. Germany imported 28 million barrels in 1938. Doing some scattered reading, it looks like Mexico was a major player in oil exports along with Venezuela.

A hard answer would take some digging, but it appears the Americas provided the lion's share of Europe's POL supplies in the 1930's.

ETA: a study of synthetic fuel in Germany. This has some basic numbers and sources.
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

 

[pardus]

The Americas. For example, Germany consumed 44 million barrels in 1938, the UK 76 million barrels, and Russia consumed 183 million barrels. Germany imported 28 million barrels in 1938. Doing some scattered reading, it looks like Mexico was a major player in oil exports along with Venezuela.

A hard answer would take some digging, but it appears the Americas provided the lion's share of Europe's POL supplies in the 1930's.

ETA: a study of synthetic fuel in Germany. This has some basic numbers and sources.
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1981/jul-aug/becker.htm

Yeah that's what I figured. Between the Americas and the ME I think Europe would cope, providing they can keep the supply lines open.

 

[Red-Dot]

Pretty funny, Obama. Putin sends in troops, seizes Ukrainian military bases and begins large scale air defense preparations. Obama....he makes a phone call and sends six F-15's. Those won't last long when the SA-12's and
SA-15's get spun up....

 

[TLDR20]

Looks like this shit sandwich is turning into a shit supper!!

All I can say is line 1-3 N/A, 338ft, Russian Horde, LS 68375235, none, 600m to the east, egress as needed. Call in with heading, all your GBU-31's, instantaneous fuze, expect clearance from Shocker on final. Word to your Mom it's time to drop bombs!!

Good luck getting those bombs when our AirForce is going against a horde of quality opposing fighters....

 

[Brill]

If I were CINC, I'd convene my war counsel on Key Largo this weekend!!!

 

[DA SWO]

Good luck getting those bombs when our AirForce is going against a horde of quality opposing fighters....

I thought all their stuff was second rate.

 

[TLDR20]

I thought all their stuff was second rate.

It is(to an F-22) but there are a lot of them and they could fly from bases in their home country.

 

[Red-Dot]

I thought all their stuff was second rate.

Say what?

 

[Red-Dot]

It is(to an F-22) but there are a lot of them and they could fly from bases in their home country.

Don't know how many of the T-50's they have on line yet....they are pretty nasty.

 

[pardus]

I thought all their stuff was second rate.

I just watched a doco about German Mig-29's going up against US F-18s in war games/training, they were at least holding their own, with the US even putting restrictions on what the Germans were allowed to do to win.
Ive also been hearing that the USAF is having major problems now with the aircraft being worn out during the last two campaigns.

 

[DA SWO]

Say what?

Gates killed the F-22 (in-part) based on a lack of 1st rate opponents.

The big question is how well trained/maintained are the Russian Pilots/aircraft.

 

[0699]

Where did it come from pre Russia? In a WWII type scenario (which is the only scenario I can really see the west mobilizing in) I think the US/Canada would step in as Oil supplier.

Sorry for the shitty source, but I think one of the major reasons Germany invaded Russia was for the raw materials and POL.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barbarossa

The German economy needed more oil – controlling the Baku Oilfields would achieve this; as Albert Speer, the German Minister for Armaments and War Production, later said in his post-war interrogation, "the need for oil certainly was a prime motive" in the decision to invade.

But again, I just don't see Russia as a real threat to the west... at this stage anyway.

IMO, the only way they can be a threat is if we let them be a threat by getting ourselves entangled in their bullshit. If we decide to get involved (against our own true national strategic interests), it could suck down a lot of money and people.