The China Thread (Threat)

So the PRC has decided our coal, the best quality anywhere is now not good & so has refused to unload 14 million tonnes sitting on boats in Chinese ports. But this has had an interesting outcome, for while the PRC complains that we are manipulating the iron ore price, it’s really their own fault as the price per tonne continues to rise as it’s simple supply & demand. So whilst the PRC complains, all the big iron ore producers here, BHP, Fortescu, Roy Hill & even the smaller ones like Fenix can’t get it on ships fast enough. The PRC knows that every tonne mined is heading for a ship. So the Chinese decision to ban coking coal from its steel mills, has increased prices but also distorted the market & also affects Chinese steel mills as coking coal helps soak up impurities in iron ore. When metallurgical prices are high, steel mills shift to a higher grade & therefore more expensive iron ore, to minimise the use of coking coal. So ergo, when coking coal is cheap, they can buy more iron ore. But the bans on coking coal have pushed up the price for the steel makers of the PRC to above $US200 per tonne. To add to the fun there are also market shortages...So the Chinese steel mills have to wear the rising cost along with the steel manufacturers. All they have to do is let the coal onshore as a solution, but well, I hope those ships leaving Oz with iron ore fill to the gunwales as I don’t think the PRC will back down. China vewy upset, pwice vewy high. Lordy Lordy me.
 
CQB said:
So the PRC has decided our coal, the best quality anywhere is now not good & so has refused to unload 14 million tonnes sitting on boats in Chinese ports. But this has had an interesting outcome, for while the PRC complains that we are manipulating the iron ore price, it’s really their own fault as the price per tonne continues to rise as it’s simple supply & demand. So whilst the PRC complains, all the big iron ore producers here, BHP, Fortescu, Roy Hill & even the smaller ones like Fenix can’t get it on ships fast enough. The PRC knows that every tonne mined is heading for a ship. So the Chinese decision to ban coking coal from its steel mills, has increased prices but also distorted the market & also affects Chinese steel mills as coking coal helps soak up impurities in iron ore. When metallurgical prices are high, steel mills shift to a higher grade & therefore more expensive iron ore, to minimise the use of coking coal. So ergo, when coking coal is cheap, they can buy more iron ore. But the bans on coking coal have pushed up the price for the steel makers of the PRC to above $US200 per tonne. To add to the fun there are also market shortages...So the Chinese steel mills have to wear the rising cost along with the steel manufacturers. All they have to do is let the coal onshore as a solution, but well, I hope those ships leaving Oz with iron ore fill to the gunwales as I don’t think the PRC will back down. China vewy upset, pwice vewy high. Lordy Lordy me.
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Seeing that China's Belt and Road scheme revolves around infrastructure projects that require large amounts of steel, these price increases may be a godsend. I feel a worldwide crackdown on CCP conglomerates and personnel should be the next step to slowing their expansion.

As an aside, it's interesting seeing how China's dominance of the US consumer market has enabled them to acquire the resources needed to fuel their expansion. Other than having a large workforce and manufacturing base China really has nothing going for it. Without outside innovation and resources China should fracture.
 
CQB said:
There are other signs that aren't encouraging. Currently there is seven people for every elderly Chinese, by 2050, the ration will be two to one. They may get old before they get rich.
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That's probably why they're pushing to expand so rapidly. With their population a ticking time bomb, coupled with a lack of resources, I expect them to grow even bolder as they near peak age. At this point, I'm assuming the CCP has always intended to expend a large portion of it's population; in order to gain territory and resources.

Like a cornered animal, nursing the last of it's strength, the CCP is dangerous foe. Given their level of infiltration in govt, tech, and academia, I fear they've laid the groundwork for something terrible.
 
That would be a worse case scenario. In news just to hand, the refusal to take our thermal & coking coal as discussed, has led to electricity shortages & rationing in Zhejiang, Hunan, Shaanxi, Jiangxi & Inner Mongolia. Considering they put a lot of effort into maintaining civil stability, this looks like the government there may have to deal with a problem of their own making.
 
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CQB said:
That would be a worse case scenario. In news just to hand, the refusal to take our thermal & coking coal as discussed, has led to electricity shortages & rationing in Zhejiang, Hunan, Shaanxi, Jiangxi & Inner Mongolia. Considering they put a lot of effort into maintaining civil stability, this looks like the government there may have to deal with a problem of their own making.
Click to expand...
That is worrisome. Any word on how much Aussie coal and iron ore China has stockpiled? If they're funneling/rationing energy out of the periphery provinces, in the dead of winter, something is going on.
 
There’re not stockpiling iron ore, they’re using it in manufacturing appliances etc. & the coal isn’t being offloaded to be used, it’s just sitting on ships offshore. The potential risk is that the natives will get restless as they slowly freeze due to the lack of coal for their power stations in the provinces mentioned above. As discussed, Chine prides itself on civil harmony, but this may change as the northern winter bites.
 
Certain generations of Chinese are used to hardship so I doubt there will be much if any civil unrest from it. It would affect rural areas more than anything and the farmers already have a bit of a shit life. Older people will tell them to shut up and get on with it but the younger people won't be happy I'd imagine.
 

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