The China Thread (Threat)

DoD/NORAD first aware of the balloon on the 28th, news reporting thanks to civilians seeing the balloon sometime later- where is the reporting that the DoD was tracking the balloon prior to entering Alaska's airspace, 1, and 2, where is the reporting that they had assessed it wasn't a threat? Not being adversarial, just haven't seen that anywhere, and would be helpful to flesh out the story.

As for the debris field/interrogation... @Johca you know this as intimately as I do, but recovering the sensor suite/air handers/information storage medium/comm suite in deep Atlantic water over that area is an absolute nightmare, if not statistically completely ridiculous, considering we shot it down, then those pieces fell at freefall speed, and then hit the water. What's your best guess for "getting anything other than the balloon material"? I am gonna settle on.... -25%

That water is only about 45, maybe 50, feet deep. In the summer and fall there's some great diving.
 
where is the reporting that they had assessed it wasn't a threat? Not being adversarial, just haven't seen that anywhere, and would be helpful to flesh out the story.
DOD did not think the spy balloon was a military threat when it was first detected<-----"The Pentagon did not shoot down the Chinese balloon as it approached Alaska in late January because it did not pose a military threat to the United States or Canada, the top commander for defending the United States said Monday."

Spy balloon part of a broader Chinese military surveillance operation, US intel sources say <--- ..."Sources familiar with the effort say that officials want to understand as much as possible about the balloon’s technical capabilities including what kind of data it could intercept and gather, what satellites it was linked to and whether it has any vulnerabilities that the US might be able to exploit. And perhaps critically, the investigators will be looking at what digital signatures it emitted to see if they provide a better way for the US to track this kind of balloon in the future." ... "One source familiar with the FBI operation said the analysis and reconstruction of the balloon’s payload will ideally determine whether the airship was equipped with the ability to transmit data it collected in real-time to the Chinese military or whether the device contained “stored collection” that China would later analyze after the device was eventually recovered."

As I said the narrative being fed to the public is DOD and intelligence didn't fail, but at the same time the surveillance of the balloon wasn't effective in producing anything useable for determining what info the balloon was gathering and getting back to China. This whole thing is a PR mess from the get go which is causing more compromise and damage than any info the balloon gathered.
 
Dunno. Looks like they pulled up ...
I was assigned to HQ ACC at Langley. Back then they had a Huey unit that would fly with to do lows and slows, sling-loads, and other currency. Lots of crab pots out there, won't be surprised at all if NCIS TV shows show an investigation of crabs being stollen from the crab pots or the divers selling spy balloon souvenirs for profit. Well at least NCIS would be doing something about what they pulled up more so than AFOSI. :P
 
DOD did not think the spy balloon was a military threat when it was first detected<-----"The Pentagon did not shoot down the Chinese balloon as it approached Alaska in late January because it did not pose a military threat to the United States or Canada, the top commander for defending the United States said Monday."

Spy balloon part of a broader Chinese military surveillance operation, US intel sources say <--- ..."Sources familiar with the effort say that officials want to understand as much as possible about the balloon’s technical capabilities including what kind of data it could intercept and gather, what satellites it was linked to and whether it has any vulnerabilities that the US might be able to exploit. And perhaps critically, the investigators will be looking at what digital signatures it emitted to see if they provide a better way for the US to track this kind of balloon in the future." ... "One source familiar with the FBI operation said the analysis and reconstruction of the balloon’s payload will ideally determine whether the airship was equipped with the ability to transmit data it collected in real-time to the Chinese military or whether the device contained “stored collection” that China would later analyze after the device was eventually recovered."

Also not being argumentative, what, exactly, is a "military threat"? (Rhetorical).

The logic eludes me. What if this wasn't a balloon, but a Chinese version of a RC-135. Would we have treated it the same because it was an intelligence-gathering platform only? Based on what the USSR, Libya, Cuba, et al., have done to our spy planes, why should it be treated differently?

Honestly, it would have been better of they left out 'not a military threat' entirely.
 
What's your best guess for "getting anything other than the balloon material"? I am gonna settle on.... -25%
I learned rather early in my career that one never knows what condition devices are in until you actually get hands on. The closest comparison I can provide is if one accidentally drops their smart phone in the toilet letting it dry and using the rice trick might result in a still functioning cell phone or not.

Another comparison I can make is back in early days of Rescue-Special Operations Low Level, it was the PJs duty on the H-53s to ensure certain devices were destroyed and if necessary, the whole helicopter. We quickly learned using only explosives wasn't effective.

The Air Force HC-130s back in the day had a location device certified to function as deep as 60 feet in sea water, the PRC-90 radio if I recollect correctly was also rated as being able to withstand being submerged in 30 feet of sea water, should an emergency ditching or crash landing in the water happen. This was before RAMZ and expectation these aircraft would routinely fly patterns at 500 feet to 1000 feet to drop MA-20, MA-7 survival kits to survivors floating around in the ocean. MA-20 is two 20-man life rafts and survival equipment and MA-7 is two 7-man life rafts and survival equipment that were dropped without use of a parachute.
 
A little bit off topic, but is a good example of you never know until you get hands on.

Broken Arrow: When the first U.S. Atomic Bomb went missing
ASN Wikibase Occurrence # 72552
Broken Arrow, A Lost Nuclear (Fat Man Bomb) <-- probably the most informative
UFO? Lost Cold War nuclear weapon? Canada's navy to investigate object found off B.C. coast <---somebody thought they found the bomb in 2016

There is some details missing pertinent to "The Air Force tried three times to send expeditions to the remote mountain crash site, but each team had to turn back due to bad weather and grueling conditions." But some PJs were parachuted in as was some explosives. Not sure if the explosives were parachuted in and used before ground teams arrived, but SOP would be nothing was blown up before ground teams arrived to evaluate.

The demolition which actually had to be done at least twice as explosives spew debrie more so than destroy the classified devices needing to be destroyed.
 
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Pentagon Downed Object Over Alaska, Official Says Splash two, it's becoming as frequent as shooting down MIGs in MIG ALLEY during the Korean War (Slight exaggeration). Or it might have been ET doing a bit of sightseeing that was shot down. The only certainty is it wasn't Air Force 1 that was shot down.

"The U.S. official said it was not confirmed if the object was a balloon, but it was traveling at an altitude that made it a potential threat to civilian aircraft."
 
Pentagon Downed Object Over Alaska, Official Says Splash two, it's becoming as frequent as shooting down MIGs in MIG ALLEY during the Korean War (Slight exaggeration). Or it might have been ET doing a bit of sightseeing that was shot down. The only certainty is it wasn't Air Force 1 that was shot down.

"The U.S. official said it was not confirmed if the object was a balloon, but it was traveling at an altitude that made it a potential threat to civilian aircraft."
What’s funny about that headline, and this one, Pentagon shoots down unknown object flying in U.S. airspace is that a week ago we would have thought, “we shot down a UFO???”
 
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