The Trump Presidency 2.0

[Box]

A poll (from CNN of all places!) shows the Democratic party at it lowest popularity/favorability level ever. According to the NY Times, the DNC is in "chaos and desperate for cash."

They've drifted so far to the left that most reasonable Americans--I suspect even many moderate liberals--can no longer identify with that party. They've attracted violent, militant, anti-American fringe groups. They're burning American flags in the street. Their anti-Trump rhetoric has gone beyond Trump. Now it's downright anarchistic, full of hate for the country they live in. They're out there calling for revolution. This "Trump is trying to be King" BS is not only nuts, it's just inflaming all these marginally intelligent street clowns.

If all this is coming back to bite them in the ass, I'm good with that.

And yet - if there was an election tomorrow - the overwhelming amount of democratic voters would zealously cast their votes for...
...another democrat

 

[DA SWO]

It's absolutely going to bite gun owners in the near future. The nationwide injunctions against the ATF regarding pistol braces and bump stocks were both put in place by District Judges...

I understand that, I'm willing to have those rulings truncated ( I am in the 5th Circuit AO, so am safe for now) in order to preserve the Constitution.

 

[AWP]

I have to wonder if the BBB's Medicaid cuts will swing any seats in the midterms.

 

[Topkick]

I have to wonder if the BBB's Medicaid cuts will swing any seats in the midterms.

Its not going to win any hearts, but the Medicaid cuts will mostly effect people who vote Democrat already. Medicare is another discussion.

 

[AWP]

Its not going to win any hearts, but the Medicaid cuts will mostly effect people who vote Democrat already. Medicare is another discussion.

I don't follow that aspect enough to really have an opinion, just questions. I know it and Medicare are hot items though and any cuts will instantly trigger an emotional response among some. People can also have that emotional response, "make up their minds" (for lack of a better description) and when faced with a vote that lingering emotional response will shape their answer. Humans doing human stuff, you know?

 

[Topkick]

I don't follow that aspect enough to really have an opinion, just questions. I know it and Medicare are hot items though and any cuts will instantly trigger an emotional response among some. People can also have that emotional response, "make up their minds" (for lack of a better description) and when faced with a vote that lingering emotional response will shape their answer. Humans doing human stuff, you know?

Medicaid is funded indirectly and generally used by lower income folks of any age. A lot of these people vote D or don't vote at all. I don't think it'll shake up the elections all that much, but if you start messing with retirees who are likely to vote Republican and have paid into Medicare all their lives, I think you'd see some swing.

 

[TLDR20]

Its not going to win any hearts, but the Medicaid cuts will mostly effect people who vote Democrat already. Medicare is another discussion.

Children are the largest enrollee in Medicaid by a large margin, I don’t think they vote. The elderly are the second largest enrollee and the largest cost to Medicaid. Cutting Medicaid will significantly curtail medical benefits to the very old and very young.

https://www.cbpp.org/research/healt... spending,being uninsured during the pandemic.

 

[Topkick]

I don’t think they vote

Their parents do.

 

[TLDR20]

Their parents do.

Anecdotal take:

I did a lot of work in rural hospitals over the last 5 years in NC. Some of which are almost entirely Medicaid patients. I think who those patients vote for would surprise you based on the amount of red hats I saw, and I can see what insurance every patient has.

 

[Topkick]

Anecdotal take:

I did a lot of work in rural hospitals over the last 5 years in NC. Some of which are almost entirely Medicaid patients. I think who those patients vote for would surprise you based on the amount of red hats I saw, and I can see what insurance every patient has.

Fair. Location matters and NC is a swing state.

 

[Box]

Lets not pretend that "red" voters are well known for their tendency to routinely and reliably "vote their conscience"

Red voters are no different from blue voters in as much as MANY of them are going to vote red now matter how much it hurts.
Republicans in government fuck their constituents dead in the ass ALL.OF.THE.TIME. and still manage to spend decades in office with little to no resistance because "anything is better than that turd from the opposition"

...just a personal opinion, based entirely on my own observations and bias - not on facts.

 

[DA SWO]

What is being cut? and who is losing benefits?

 

[amlove21]

What is being cut? and who is losing benefits?

What a good question.

Fraud is being cut. Eligibility requirements are getting more stringent, leading to fewer people getting carte blanche approval and coverage. Some estimates quote a 10-20 million reduction in Medicaid benefits... but an astute voter will note that those cuts are due to the more stringent eligibility requirements (focusing specifically on non-citizens) and may in fact lead you to believe that we may just be paying people/allowing people to get benefits that don't qualify or don't need medicare/medicaid.


For Medicare/Medicaid impact on American citizens-
- No cuts to core services (hospital stays, physician services, pharma)
- Adults over 65 won't see cuts to Part A/Part B services (65+ remains largely status quo)
- Blocks grants and per capita caps allow more state control
- Generalized restructuring of payment

Drawbacks-
- Reducing medicare payments could lead to providers deciding to stop taking medicare/medicar clients- this is both indirect and speculative
- Stringent eligibility requirements could drive tougher access, for both those that are truly eligible and those that aren't
- Higher medicare premiums could select out for a small portion of low-income beneficiaries

The bottom line is that there won't be sweeping changes to the process (much to my lament) for rank and file Americans. The "they're coming for your benefits" line of attack doesn't have any teeth.

The third rails of spending are these entitlements- we are going to do absolutely nothing to the deficit until we address social security, medicare/medicaid, and military spending.