2016 Presidential Race

[Salt USMC]

FiveThirtyEight (which I like very much), RCP, Gallup....none of those polls matter. The LA Times poll? Doesn't matter. Rasmussen? Doesn't matter. The only polls that matter are Florida, NC, Pennsylvania, and a couple others.

I do think HRC is going to win. But this election feels so different from the last couple. Obama-Romney, there was NONE of this last minute swell that Trump is getting.

Right, the state polling is the only one that matters. I was just referencing those polls because 538 was talking about them as a metric for EV performance in the general.

 

[ThunderHorse]

So...you know how we talked about voter fraud, well here in Texas: Early Voters From Amarillo Are Saying Their Votes Were Changed On the Ballot

 

[Devildoc]

So I just wanna throw this out there: What are you going to do if your choice doesn't win? Just shrug, say "what's done is done," and move on? Become politically active? Stock up on guns and ammo?

My kids have been asking me this question this week.

 

[Il Duce]

One of the things I wonder too is if the Republican party splits into multiple parties on the lines of what I discussed earlier is what vulnerabilities does that generate in traditional Democratic voting blocks? Democratic voting blocks tend to be less ideological and more identity-based (talking about models, not thought-process).

So, significant groups of African-American and Latino voters have a great deal in common with religious conservative groups on the right. Their opinions like up on a number of social issues and general economic policies - but their voting patterns are polar opposites. If the religious conservatives split off, are unencumbered by the white-identity politics of the rest of the Republican party, and are more amenable to the social welfare programs abhorred by the business elite I wonder what chunks of those demographics would be willing to move over.

Further, I wonder how deep the commitment to economic policy really is on the left when looking at a demographic of upwardly mobile, college-educated, white, Asian, and LGBT demographics if there is an aspect of the Republican party wholly committed to the business elite principles but unencumbered by the social and religious conservatism that translates as racist, homophobic, and anti-science to those groups.

I've been working through Rick Perlstein's trilogy on the rise of the modern Republican party starting with the Goldwater election, going through Nixon's election, and culminating with Reagan's election. Very interesting - he weaves a narrative that explains a great deal about how voting demographics shifted to where they are today. A lot of really interesting parallels with today's election. It's kind of taken me aback as I had been very committed to the idea of how this election was totally revolutionary and we hadn't seen anything like it. That's true in a number of ways but also some significant points of convergence. I highly recommend the books if it's a topic that interests you.

 

[ThunderHorse]

I just look at how states vote, for the most part urban areas vote democratic and rural areas vote Republican. If you look at California or NY for example, you win the state by winning NYC, you don't have to worry about any other place for the most part. In California, win LA and the Bay.

In regards to what I'm going to do...move forward.

 

[Devildoc]

In regards to what I'm going to do...move forward.

What does that look like? I said that after Obama and yet I talk smack about him, email my congress critter, etc.

 

[TLDR20]

One of the things I wonder too is if the Republican party splits into multiple parties on the lines of what I discussed earlier is what vulnerabilities does that generate in traditional Democratic voting blocks? Democratic voting blocks tend to be less ideological and more identity-based (talking about models, not thought-process).

So, significant groups of African-American and Latino voters have a great deal in common with religious conservative groups on the right. Their opinions like up on a number of social issues and general economic policies - but their voting patterns are polar opposites. If the religious conservatives split off, are unencumbered by the white-identity politics of the rest of the Republican party, and are more amenable to the social welfare programs abhorred by the business elite I wonder what chunks of those demographics would be willing to move over.

Further, I wonder how deep the commitment to economic policy really is on the left when looking at a demographic of upwardly mobile, college-educated, white, Asian, and LGBT demographics if there is an aspect of the Republican party wholly committed to the business elite principles but unencumbered by the social and religious conservatism that translates as racist, homophobic, and anti-science to those groups.

I've been working through Rick Perlstein's trilogy on the rise of the modern Republican party starting with the Goldwater election, going through Nixon's election, and culminating with Reagan's election. Very interesting - he weaves a narrative that explains a great deal about how voting demographics shifted to where they are today. A lot of really interesting parallels with today's election. It's kind of taken me aback as I had been very committed to the idea of how this election was totally revolutionary and we hadn't seen anything like it. That's true in a number of ways but also some significant points of convergence. I highly recommend the books if it's a topic that interests you.

Good points there. If conservatism was limited to helping the business elite, and paying if social/religious issues, I may be right there with them.

 

[ThunderHorse]

What does that look like? I said that after Obama and yet I talk smack about him, email my congress critter, etc.

If whomever does a shit job, talking smack will probably be a part of moving forward. I've already voted, but at that point I will probably still need to find a job, so I'll keep doing that. I still can't believe this is where we are, though.

 

[Bypass]

Report: Votes Switched From Trump to Hillary in Texas

 

[Salt USMC]

This happens in every single election. Touch screen machines fall out of calibration sometimes and need to be re-adjusted.

 

[nobodythank you]

Just my opinion on all.

I can agree with much of what you have said. Minus the constant reference to white voting blocks. With respect, this kind of discussion only serves to further the divide in existence. It almost paints a picture that it is a crime to be white (admittedly that view might be personal bias coloring my thoughts). I believe it goes much deeper than a simple binary trait as color. While I agree that most staunch religious (read usually non-educated) blocks won't/can't change, those that refuse to change will be lost in time. Look at how the issue of civil/gay rights has slowly eroded over time. Most people are moderates even within their own religions and can reconcile the religious and social aspects of their lives.

All in all I think we are both saying similar things. The difference being that I am looking at it in the germs will make you sick (macro) viewpoint, and you are looking at it from the "this specific protein marker is what makes you sick with gonasyphaherpalaids type 4 (micro) viewpoint. Well done in any event.

 

[Bypass]

This happens in every single election. Touch screen machines fall out of calibration sometimes and need to be re-adjusted.

Yeah right.

 

[Il Duce]

I can agree with much of what you have said. Minus the constant reference to white voting blocks. With respect, this kind of discussion only serves to further the divide in existence. It almost paints a picture that it is a crime to be white (admittedly that view might be personal bias coloring my thoughts). I believe it goes much deeper than a simple binary trait as color. While I agree that most staunch religious (read usually non-educated) blocks won't/can't change, those that refuse to change will be lost in time. Look at how the issue of civil/gay rights has slowly eroded over time. Most people are moderates even within their own religions and can reconcile the religious and social aspects of their lives.

All in all I think we are both saying similar things. The difference being that I am looking at it in the germs will make you sick (macro) viewpoint, and you are looking at it from the "this specific protein marker is what makes you sick with gonasyphaherpalaids type 4 (micro) viewpoint. Well done in any event.

I hear what you're saying. I think characterizing voting groups is an effective modeling tool to predict large group behaviors but, like any modeling tool, is very problematic the tighter you take the group. It also implies causation and lumps people together that might have extremely diverse views - they just happen to fit inside certain voting patterns. Also, some of the blocks are controversial. I don't think there's any way to talk about 'white identity' parties and politics without the specter of atrocious racism hanging in the background.

I definitely don't ascribe my opinions and beliefs to my being a part of any demographic or group - and wouldn't put the same label on individuals on this site or anywhere else. However, I still think the modeling tools and political science/polling lexicon are useful and predictive instruments in describing electoral politics. I guess it's like saying someone is generation whatever. It's a good tool for policy because it's a predictor of large group behavior i.e. more people will/will not own homes, carry debt, etc. but the minute you try to say 'you were born in year X so you believe Y and live like Z' you're totally full of shit.

 

[nobodythank you]

I hear what you're saying. I think characterizing voting groups is an effective modeling tool to predict large group behaviors but, like any modeling tool, is very problematic the tighter you take the group. It also implies causation and lumps people together that might have extremely diverse views - they just happen to fit inside certain voting patterns. Also, some of the blocks are controversial. I don't think there's any way to talk about 'white identity' parties and politics without the specter of atrocious racism hanging in the background.

I definitely don't ascribe my opinions and beliefs to my being a part of any demographic or group - and wouldn't put the same label on individuals on this site or anywhere else. However, I still think the modeling tools and political science/polling lexicon are useful and predictive instruments in describing electoral politics. I guess it's like saying someone is generation whatever. It's a good tool for policy because it's a predictor of large group behavior i.e. more people will/will not own homes, carry debt, etc. but the minute you try to say 'you were born in year X so you believe Y and live like Z' you're totally full of shit.

I see your point. From a scientific/academic standpoint it makes sense. Thank you for laying it out that way.

 

[Brill]

I think we'll see a resurgence of a Tea Party like element where blue collar workers, who are religious but tolerant to a point (do what you do inside your house of worship but don't push it on me), are sick of the DC bullshit at the workers expense and are tired of the PC crap.

Rich and poor Republicans are tired of politicians in power telling them X is for their own well being when hardly any of X applies to themselves.

I cannot believe this country would allow husband and wife POTUSes.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I think regardless of the political future, party systems and or agendas, we as a nation are heading for a very nasty reform, for one side or the other. When that happens, on issues of rights, states rights and national debt, I think we will face a second civil war and at that point it won't fucking matter what party is clamoring for power.

Fuck Hillary, she is a lying bitch.
Fuck Trump he is a fucking asshole.
Fuck all the political groups, packs, parties, etc. Your fucking country and countrymen should always come first. And I can't wait to see the day when the corrupt motherfuckers are publicly executed for their crimes...
$.02

 

[Brill]

Soviet Russia would be proud of the "news" machine.

In the twelve weeks since the party conventions concluded in late July, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has received significantly more broadcast network news coverage than his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, but nearly all of that coverage (91%) has been hostile, according to a new study by the Media Research Center (MRC).

MRC Study: Documenting TV’s Twelve Weeks of Trump Bashing

 

[ThunderHorse]

This happens in every single election. Touch screen machines fall out of calibration sometimes and need to be re-adjusted.

When you input 1 but that's really a zero. . .

 

[RackMaster]

This happens in every single election. Touch screen machines fall out of calibration sometimes and need to be re-adjusted.

Which should have been done when first setup and before voters used them. Especially if it's a known fault and if it happens even once, they should be removed until recalibrated. And if it was just a calibration problem, there would be instances of it switching to other parties as well, not just democrat.

 

[Salt USMC]

Which should have been done when first setup and before voters used them.

Election stations do this before voters show up.

Especially if it's a known fault and if it happens even once, they should be removed until recalibrated.

According to the Facebook posts that sparked this controversy, that's exactly what happened.

And if it was just a calibration problem, there would be instances of it switching to other parties as well, not just democrat.

From the last election:

I imagine that there aren't more recordings like this because there isn't a prominent narrative of vote-switching on the Democrat side, so instead of throwing up a video and screaming "RIGGED!!!" to the heavens, they just get a poll worker to fix the problem, and vote as normal. You'll note that in those Facebook posts, the voters involved were able to cast their votes correctly after poll workers took them offline, which tells me that that this is just an inconvenience rather than evidence of malfeasance.

Look, if you get touch-sensitive LCD screens, especially older ones, and have hundreds or thousands of grubby fingers jabbing them in a single day, some of them might fall out of calibration. I don't know how old those specific machines are, but I would wager that some of them were probably used in the midterms as well as the 2012 election. I had a Blackberry that used to do this (back when Blackberries were still a thing) and had to recalibrate it close to once a week, which was super annoying and I'm glad that I ditched that piece of shit. The Chase bank location near me has a nearly brand-new ATM with an LCD screen, and the cursor drifts ever-so slightly so that you kinda have to put your finger slightly up and to the left of the number you actually want to hit.

If the voting machines really were "rigged", wouldn't your vote appear as normal and just be miscounted on the digital register? If this is evidence of rigging conspiracy in the most visible election on the entire planet, then the conspirators are some of the most incompetent amateurs in history.