Covid-19

[R.Caerbannog]

I think the “wartime footing” was valid as @R.Caerbannog noted when models forecast 2mil dead but those SAME once incorrect models are now right at 70k deaths?

I‘m going to say no.

The reality is our decision makers will be butchered by the media if they open the states and US tomorrow or in the Fall so there isn’t any downside.

Honestly, I think we're gonna be on wartime footing for a while. The world can't let China off the hook for this. Sucks our MSM outlets are CCP shills and have dual loyalties. When this is over we need to go medieval on the CCP, WHO, and the pro china MSM shills.

On the bright side, the country will be opening up soon; most likely in stages. Americans have pulled together and done a really good job by staying at home and lowering the curve. All in all, we've gained time for research to be done, rules & regs regarding treatment to be streamlined, and mobilized our assets.

Not trying to fear monger or be ghoulish, but the second wave of the 1918 pandemic was what really stacked up the bodies. Just cause numbers are low now don't mean they won't shoot up again.

 

[GOTWA]

Well, I have reached the saturation point of fear mongering and no longer believe any of the numbers provided....

Spoiler: American Gods...Fear

MR.WORLD: Fear is the product of the imagination. It's made up in the mind.
The mind can dream and think of anything.
You love fear.
You love horror.
You pay money for a pair of three-dimensional glasses and popcorn for an hour and a half of anxiety.
Something on Earth that keeps people thinking is the idea that it can end at any moment.
Fear has no end.
Fear is limitless.
Fear thrives and feeds on itself, preparing you for calamity, preparing you to believe that the most important things are the most dangerous.
If it's real in your mind, it's real in the world. The more you believe the more you believe.

Humans like the idea that love makes the world go round. It doesn't. You don't lock your doors at night because you love thy neighbor; you deadbolt with reinforced steel because you fear thy neighbor. Fear is order. Fear is control. Fear is safety. Fear is fiction. 80 years ago, actor Orson Welles announced to audiences in a chilling radio performance that Martians were invading New Jersey, leading terrified listeners to believe that Earth was under attack by hostile aliens. Before this moment, people in America did not conceive of what an alien spacecraft might look like.They did not believe an alien attack could happen. What made it real was the fear that it could exist, and the fact that it was feared so deeply meant that it did exist. Believing is seeing.

100%

 

[Cookie_]

The IHME has always been a fantasy. Johns Hopkins is saying the case fatality ratio is around 6%. The peer-reviewed published Lancet article puts Ohio at 4%. They are using the algorithm > Number recorded deaths / Number confirmed cases. Depending on location and using that same model establishes a case-fatality rate is likely somewhere between 1.38% and 6%.

A German study just estimated as low as .37%, Diamond Princess Cruise was .66%. The German study can be criticized for sure as it's a small population in Gangelt, but the answer is likely still on the lower end. The 6% from Johns Hopkins is incredibly misleading and has had 90,000 US cases go 'missing' 3 days ago, but they are working to get them back USA cases decreased by ~90,000? #2093.

Unfortunately a lot of media outlets and leaders are using Johns Hopkins peer reviewed Lancet published work with big scary numbers to instill fear.

It's the old Twain quote;

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

There are going to be institutes that assume more liberal or conservative (not in political sense) spread and lethality of the virus.

My point is none of these institutions are "lying" or "making up" data, but using different metrics to make the models.

On that note, the models are nowhere near as important to look at as the actual numbers we're getting.

Places of relatively high urban population (NYC, Chicago, LA, Seattle) are getting rocked, especially if they are designed around public transport.

That should be what's looked at when reopening the economy.

To use the state where I live; maybe Denver metro area/Colorado Springs doesn't open up quite yet, but Pueblo and other less hit cities do.

This doesn't make sense to be an all or nothing thing, both for locking down and opening up

 

[RackMaster]

A great resource to fact check any info on the virus.

Home - Infotagion

 

[Dvr55119]

Additionally, regardless of cause of death, they're being very liberal with coronavirus death attribution that'll certainly force the numbers higher than they are. It'll be interesting to see the actual numbers in a few years, if we can ever get even semi-reliable estimates on total infection vs death rate instead of just the very limited confirmed case numbers.

What leads you to believe this? Specifically here in the United States?

 

[Florida173]

It's the old Twain quote;

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

There are going to be institutes that assume more liberal or conservative (not in political sense) spread and lethality of the virus.

My point is none of these institutions are "lying" or "making up" data, but using different metrics to make the models.

On that note, the models are nowhere near as important to look at as the actual numbers we're getting.

Places of relatively high urban population (NYC, Chicago, LA, Seattle) are getting rocked, especially if they are designed around public transport.

That should be what's looked at when reopening the economy.

To use the state where I live; maybe Denver metro area/Colorado Springs doesn't open up quite yet, but Pueblo and other less hit cities do.

This doesn't make sense to be an all or nothing thing, both for locking down and opening up

It's hard to believe they are truly getting rocked by watching citizen journalists checking in on things, and/or looking at the lack of using the USNS Comfort. I'm not dismissing the fact that it may be rough in these microcosms, just that I don't care and want to get on with my life. Locking down a country and taking away more and more of my personal liberties is complete bullshit

 

[Dvr55119]

It's hard to believe they are truly getting rocked by watching citizen journalists checking in on things, and/or looking at the lack of using the USNS Comfort. I'm not dismissing the fact that it may be rough in these microcosms, just that I don't care and want to get on with my life. Locking down a country and taking away more and more of my personal liberties is complete bullshit

Here is something that speaks to why the Comfort and Army field hospital are not being used to capacity.

USNS Comfort, Javits Center still largely empty of NYC coronavirus patients

 

[Blizzard]

My Sister has the Corona Virus in Georgia. She is a school teacher.

How's your sister and her family doing? Hope she's recovering/recovered

 

[Blizzard]

Here is something that speaks to why the Comfort and Army field hospital are not being used to capacity.

USNS Comfort, Javits Center still largely empty of NYC coronavirus patients

I don't know about Javits, but it was widely reported early on that the Comfort was never intended for Covid patients; it was intended as a reliever for more "standard" type hospital patients. When and why did this change?

My question is this, did NYC not designate certain hospitals as Covid-19 locations? If not, why?

That said, 75% of those with the virus don't require any hospitalization or special treatment anyway.

 

[Dvr55119]

I don't know about Javits, but it was widely reported early on that the Comfort was never intended for Covid patients; it was intended as a reliever for more "standard" type hospital patients. When did this change?

My question is this, did NYC not designate certain hospitals as Covid-19 locations? If not, why?

That said, 75% of those with the virus don't require any hospitalization or special treatment anyway.

I had seen that originally as well. I thought they were going to be handling non COVID response, like traumas, emergent heart caths, and that kind of stuff. That NY Post article implies they were only for the sickest COVID patients. So idk.

 

[Intel Nerd]

What leads you to believe this? Specifically here in the United States?

Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death"

 

[Dvr55119]

Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death"

Thanks. Seems like the right thing to do.

 

[Blizzard]

I had seen that originally as well. I thought they were going to be handling non COVID response, like traumas, emergent heart caths, and that kind of stuff. That NY Post article implies they were only for the sickest COVID patients. So idk.

Me neither and I'm not saying it couldn't be right but I'm going to take a healthy dose of skepticism as to the accuracy of that article. It has too many gaps and just doesn't align with other reports.

I know hammering on the media gets old, but I don't know why it's so difficult for journalists to do their jobs. Many are just putting out pure shit and I have no idea why. It's as though they lack any critical thinking skills. They unnecessarily complicate the entire problem and have no accountability.

 

[Brill]

A great resource to fact check any info on the virus.

Home - Infotagion

MISLEADING. DO NOT SHARE.

 

[Cookie_]

It's hard to believe they are truly getting rocked by watching citizen journalists checking in on things, and/or looking at the lack of using the USNS Comfort. I'm not dismissing the fact that it may be rough in these microcosms, just that I don't care and want to get on with my life. Locking down a country and taking away more and more of my personal liberties is complete bullshit

I want to make it clear upfront that I'm not trying to be flippant or confrontational with this comment, but the people I see with this sentiment are usually people who aren't likely to be affected by this anyway.

I don't see many in healthcare, public service, or those current "essential" employees (mostly low wage service industry) not caring about this.

We keep arguing that it's not that bad in these cities, negating the fact that the average citizens' lives and social interactions have been drastically reduced; I bet there's a correlation there.

We need more widespread testing yesterday, and we need a slow opening of most businesses, with protections for workers that need to continue isolation for personal safety.

Hard agree on the civil liberties though; we've got enough data now to attempt to treat this with a scalpel as opposed to a bonesaw.

 

[Brill]

My point is none of these institutions are "lying" or "making up" data, but using different metrics to make the models.

100% agree but decisions are being made based on “bad” data.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1249335616174776321

https://twitter.com/x/status/1249058489177178113

 

[ThunderHorse]

Here is something that speaks to why the Comfort and Army field hospital are not being used to capacity.

USNS Comfort, Javits Center still largely empty of NYC coronavirus patients

Comfort and Mercy were deployed to relieve the strain of "normal" hospital visits on the hospital systems. It weird in the IHME model stating that we have an ICU bed shortage when it appears to me the surged capacity in certain places it's not being used. The Javits Center Field Hospital is meant to service COVID-19 patients though.

Inslee (Governor of Washington) returned a field hospital to the Federal Government early last week. Interestingly he chose to do it only after three days of the hospital being open for business. However, in three days they had seen zero patients.

So for now I'm looking at those shortages in the IHME model skeptically.

 

[Blizzard]

100% agree but decisions are being made based on “bad” data.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1249335616174776321

https://twitter.com/x/status/1249058489177178113

I'll add to this, the fact the media and leaders continue to report and talk about this in terms of total cases is ridiculous. A running total is irrelevant.

What matters is the number of active cases, which is a much different metric. As an ex. today, MN Dept of Health reports 1,621 cases in MN. However, they don't report in terms of active cases; ie they don't adjust for those that are recovered. When looking at just active cases, the number is 779.

Another interesting note about the current active cases, the past few weeks the number of net new cases was on a shallow upward curve averaging 28 net new cases per day. Something happened with the way the reported today that added 145 net new cases; this is a significant outlier in that is more than double the peak anywhere previously.

Overall, in MN, while number of daily active cases continues to increase moderately (adding ~100 new cases every 5 days), the number of daily deaths both as actual and in terms of percentage have remained relatively flat; slight increase.

 

[GOTWA]

Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death"

Shit, in China if someone dies, that person never existed anyway.

I'll add to this, the fact the media and leaders continue to report and talk about this in terms of total cases is ridiculous. A running total is irrelevant.

It's number manipulation and done all the time. "America corona cases grow to 100,000!" or "USA deaths exceed the total number of deaths in Italy!"

When you look at the numbers, 100,000 looks like a lot, but it isn't. It's way more engaging and scary than saying .03 % of the population... or when you compare a country with 328m people to one of 60m. It doesn't sound so sexy and appealing if they state we have only 20% of the number of deaths to overall population when compared to Italy. One makes it sound out of control, the other like we're doing a great job. Great doesn't sell, panic does.

 

[Cookie_]

*dudes too