Election Predictions

[Cookie_]

How, in 2022, 5 days after the election, can some districts (see CA in link below) still have less than 40% of the vote counted?! This is completely mind-boggling. When did voting and tallying become so complex?

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...n&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Did you happen to notice that in almost all of those states they either use rank choice voting or allow votes to be mailed election day?

This seems new for two reasons. The first is increased scrutiny about our election process and state laws. This isn't something I think really became widespread on the average American's level until the last election.
The second is we're seeing a larger amount of close races than we'd be expecting right now, so whereas a race would normally be called without all the votes in (DeSantis for example) we've got situations like the one local to me where there are less than 1000 votes separating the candidates, in what was expected to be a 9+ point district for one of them.

There are legit reasons to look at our process and see that it needs improved. Florida's system is one of the better ones for speed. Their laws allow them to begin counting mail-in/absentee ballots when they are received, not wait until election day. That allowed for 1.1 million ballots to be rreceived and counted almost 10 days before the election. If we assume everyone voted for the governor, that's a decent number of the 7.7 million total that did it days before the election. Clearly their system is one other states should replicate.

ETA: That NBC link is actually a good example of what I'm talking about with close races. Florida is still counting thousands of votes like other states, but the remaining votes won't change the results. Having a GOP blowout of Dem candidates is what made them seem so fast.

 

[AWP]

Only Florida Man can save our election system.

Let that sink in.

 

[Blizzard]

One for you, 1,2,3 for me, 1, 2 for you, 1 for me…..

I'm thinking they ran out of fingers and toes and aren't sure what to do.

 

[amlove21]

Congrats to the senate democrats for suddenly pulling ahead and winning surprising victories by the perfect margins 5 days after the polls closed, in the dead of night, only in states with mail in voting for the 2nd time in a row. We have never seen anything like it in 244 years.

What the literal fuck.

 

[Ooh-Rah]

Careful Brother. Jan 6th protestors are still in prison for having those thoughts.

Ummm…I’m ’pretty sure’ they are in prison for more than just thoughts.

 

[Devildoc]

Like what? Trespassing? Breaking and entering? People have burned down cities and murdered other human beings and have had less consequences/repercussions.

For sure the difference between 99% of the people who were arrested/charged at the Capitol and, say, ANTIFA/BLS are night and day.

 

[Bypass]

For sure the difference between 99% of the people who were arrested/charged at the Capitol and, say, ANTIFA/BLS are night and day.

Hey I'm sorry man I'm dropping out of the conversation. I shouldn't have said anything. Saying ANYTHING on the internet anymore scares me. Never know who might be watching nowadays. I deleted my previous posts.

......................

You win. You have your dictatorship. Now leave me alone.

 

[Bypass]

I hope the left wins control of the House to go along with the senate and the presidency. Then they will have no one else to blame when it all goes to shit or should I say China.

 

[Blizzard]

Did you happen to notice that in almost all of those states they either use rank choice voting or allow votes to be mailed election day?

This seems new for two reasons. The first is increased scrutiny about our election process and state laws. This isn't something I think really became widespread on the average American's level until the last election.
The second is we're seeing a larger amount of close races than we'd be expecting right now, so whereas a race would normally be called without all the votes in (DeSantis for example) we've got situations like the one local to me where there are less than 1000 votes separating the candidates, in what was expected to be a 9+ point district for one of them.

There are legit reasons to look at our process and see that it needs improved. Florida's system is one of the better ones for speed. Their laws allow them to begin counting mail-in/absentee ballots when they are received, not wait until election day. That allowed for 1.1 million ballots to be rreceived and counted almost 10 days before the election. If we assume everyone voted for the governor, that's a decent number of the 7.7 million total that did it days before the election. Clearly their system is one other states should replicate.

ETA: That NBC link is actually a good example of what I'm talking about with close races. Florida is still counting thousands of votes like other states, but the remaining votes won't change the results. Having a GOP blowout of Dem candidates is what made them seem so fast.

Doesn't matter the reasoning. There's simply no way to justify why, 5 - now 6 days - after the election, less than 40% of the vote is counted. That's UNSAT by any measure. That's a broken system.

 

[Cookie_]

Doesn't matter the reasoning. There's simply no way to justify why, 5 - now 6 days - after the election, less than 40% of the vote is counted. That's UNSAT by any measure. That's a broken system.

"That's a system working as designed and I don't like it."

Cool, that's a legit take to have. I don't disagree with you at all on that. My point is states get broad leeway to run shit as they want. There isn't a federal law that says they have to have all votes counted in one day. It taking states that have broad mail-in ballot deadlines/cure periods isn't some sinister plot to steal elections, but it isn't a good thing either.

I'd be happy to see an election counting system that is run more like Florida in allowing early voting/counting to prevent this issue.
Further speed up elections by doing something like Colorado where everyone is sent a ballot, but just create two types. A "drop off" ballot sent to everyone that still requires going to a polling location and being verified, and a "mail in" ballot that must be requested. "Drop off" ballots not tracked at the county location don't get to count.

 

[Blizzard]

"That's a system working as designed and I don't like it."



Cool, that's a legit take to have. I don't disagree with you at all on that. My point is states get broad leeway to run shit as they want. There isn't a federal law that says they have to have all votes counted in one day. It taking states that have broad mail-in ballot deadlines/cure periods isn't some sinister plot to steal elections, but it isn't a good thing either.



I'd be happy to see an election counting system that is run more like Florida in allowing early voting/counting to prevent this issue.

Further speed up elections by doing something like Colorado where everyone is sent a ballot, but just create two types. A "drop off" ballot sent to everyone that still requires going to a polling location and being verified, and a "mail in" ballot that must be requested. "Drop off" ballots not tracked at the county location don't get to count.

I hear ya and you're correct, "I don't like it". My issue isn't whether states are required to complete tallying votes in a single day. They should want to complete counting in a single day for the reasons you noted. It avoids all the speculation and conspiracy discussions.

I know we're basically on the same page here, but again, when did voting become so complex and why?

There's absolutely no need for it to be this way. We live in a world with technology that allows us to have inexpensive real time, video communications with people in space and around the world. Our news cycle is virtually instantaneous and constant. ScanTron forms have been used for decades to score critical exams with 99.9+% accuracy. When I place my ballot in the machine, I immediately see it register electronically. So, again, the idea that we need days to tally votes is just absurd. And mail in voting - in 2022? C'mon man. While I'm generally a big supporter of States rights, in the case of federal elections, at least, there needs to be a simple standardized approach that eliminates all this nonsense. If some local election board wants to screw around for a couple weeks with some silly way to tally a handful of votes for their school board race, that's on them.

Simple solutions and common sense, that's all I ask. A pipe dream, I know.

 

[amlove21]

"That's a system working as designed and I don't like it."

Cool, that's a legit take to have. I don't disagree with you at all on that. My point is states get broad leeway to run shit as they want. There isn't a federal law that says they have to have all votes counted in one day. It taking states that have broad mail-in ballot deadlines/cure periods isn't some sinister plot to steal elections, but it isn't a good thing either.

I'd be happy to see an election counting system that is run more like Florida in allowing early voting/counting to prevent this issue.
Further speed up elections by doing something like Colorado where everyone is sent a ballot, but just create two types. A "drop off" ballot sent to everyone that still requires going to a polling location and being verified, and a "mail in" ballot that must be requested. "Drop off" ballots not tracked at the county location don't get to count.

What benefit does early voting provide? Absentee ballots/mail in for military only or those that legit can not report to the station is as far as I will go for absentee ballots. But what could you possibly use to justify early voting?

I love that we are just completely ignoring the fact that massive mail in voting didn't happen before 2020. Ever. This is most certainly *not* how the system was designed to work. There are no examples of this sort of thing in our entire history.

No drop off ballots. No mailed ballots. Go to the polling location, and vote. Or, present your valid reason (disability, military service) you can't get to the ballot. When you get there, present an ID. That's "the system working".

 

[Cookie_]

Early voting and mail in voting has been a thing for pretty much the past 40 years; Texas of all places was the first to start early in person voting back in the 80s.

Just because you weren't aware of it until last election doesn't mean it's new.

"Go to the polling location" isn't as simple as that for a lot of people.

Ever been in a place financially where you literally couldn't afford to take off work but were also scheduled throughout the polling hours?
Cause I was in 2018.
Was I not allowed to vote because I was poor?

I'd have missed the election without the way Colorado runs its system. That's not as an uncommon situation as it might be thought.

 

[AWP]

What percentage of ballots cast are early votes and how does that stack up over time? If there's an increase, what changed?

I'm not saying the point isn't worth arguing, but maybe some historical context matters here?

 

[Cookie_]

What percentage of ballots cast are early votes and how does that stack up over time? If there's an increase, what changed?

I'm not saying the point isn't worth arguing, but maybe some historical context matters here?

Looks like it was 69(nice) million the week before the 2020 election, and 70% of the total vote was early in 2020.
seems like in previous two its closer to 40%, and has been trending upwards since 2000.

The biggest reason it's probably increased is due to ease and accessibility.

 

[amlove21]

@Cookie_

Didn't say early voting wasn't a thing; didn't say mail in voting wasn't a thing.

1- I asked what benefit you think early voting affords, as opposed to the remarkable downside (voting before you have enough/any information on a candidate, how it perverts the intent of the process by opening it up to illegality).

2- Yeah, mail in voting existed, and your snide condescending shot at me "not knowing something" is noted. I'll put it on your tab. In terms of sheer volume, procedures used, systems employed- no, it never existed in it's form that we are seeing it today. The justification for this move in 2020 was the cough that isn't a thing anymore. That's not the case now, so why not go back to 40%? What's driving the change?

As for ease and accountability (and your appeal to emotion, poor you)- freedom comes with cost, as always. This process isn't here to be equitable to everyone no matter what. It's here to produce a fair and just election process, for the *most* people. Not *all* people.

As long as there aren't verifiable, systemic restrictions keeping people from voting (which there are not), then your inability to vote in that election sounds more like a scheduling problem between you and your boss, and not a reason to allow 2 weeks worth of ballot harvesting in the name of making sure one party continues to win.

 

[Kaldak]

Hell, I'm in a wheelchair. A power wheelchair, so not the kind you can fold up and put in the back seat. I vote in a rural area too.

I'm fortunate enough to have a vehicle (thank you VA) that allows me to drive and accommodates my chair. Most people don't.

I looked into options for voting had I not had my own vehicle. There were transportation options provided by the county and state. There were private organizations providing transportation as well. These are power wheelchair accessible options. All for Nov 8th and at a multitude of times.

I voted in person on November 8th.

 

[Cookie_]

verifiable, systemic restrictions keeping people from voting (which there are not)

Hey, I want to make it clear that I'm not disagreeing with you on this point. Election security is a thing that still needs to be considered and accounted for.
I think early in-person voting is beneficial for allowing the maximum number of people to vote.

To the points in #1: I don't think early voting necessarily means voters will blindly vote anymore than they already do. Our election process is increasingly becoming a "check my team" box.
I can say (for me) that I like getting my CO ballot early, because I can actually dive into the propositions on the ballot I'm not aware of.

To point 2: it's been trending upwards. If it's something the voters want, it's something they'll keep doing. Last election was an outlier of growth, but how many people who voted like that are going to push for it to continue?

I'll put it on your tab.

What am I up to, about 8 beers now? A full bottle of good whiskey?

For real, if you're ever in the Springs or I'm passing through where you are I'll get you a drink. Can chat about something other than politics; Favorite coaster at Cedar Point or something.

 

[SpongeBob*24]

Mail in ballots [military] and early voting [in person] should be the exception, not the norm as I understood @amlove21 to have stated.

I voted early because I knew I would be TDY. I went in person, and did my greatest duty as a citizen.

People are weird and dont understand how important the right to vote is. If they did...they wouldn't rely on the post office. It's not like Door Dash... .

 

[AWP]

Trump just filed to run in 2024.

I'm in it for the chaos.