Israel and Iran

So. There are videos of American C17’s arriving yesterday. Maybe, just maybe, you don’t know wtf you are talking about.

I understand you don’t know how Special Operations work, as you’ve never served in such a unit, but, for the most part it is good if things are announced after things have been put into place.

Typical passive-aggressive comment, not surprising.
 
We faced ~2,000 Mahdi Army inside the big mosque and old city, plus several dozen to a couple hundred in the giant graveyard. It took 2 weeks with Bradleys going amber on 25mm and infantry dismounts everywhere, along with all the other goodies the Marine expeditionary force had on hand, and a couple real airstrikes.

Gaza is the size of an American metropolitan city with around 2 million people, tunnels, dug in positions, the whole 9 yards. I hope they have some good intel and are ready for the traps. I want to see Israel come out with at least some of those women and kids.
That must have been a MESS. When I was in 5th Group we were doing a lot of targeting on the upper levels of the Mahdi Militia, including Sadr, until his fat ass came off the target deck.
 
I appears that Israel is going to invade and occupy Gaza with a force that was triple the size of the surge strength of the Coalition in Iraq. Supposedly 1,000 sorties were flown today by the IAF.
Wow that is an ENORMOUS commitment of manpower.

Based on the terrain they're going to have to fight in, and Hamas' commitment, they're going to need it.
 
President Obama had words about the situation.

I think they were good ones.

Israel at war with Hamas after surprise attacks, around 900 Israelis dead

"All Americans should be horrified and outraged by the brazen terrorist attacks on Israel and the slaughter of innocent civilians," Obama began.

"We grieve for those who died, pray for the safe return of those who’ve been held hostage, and stand squarely alongside our ally, Israel, as it dismantles Hamas," he added.

His statement also called for peace between the Israeli and Palestinian people.

"As we support Israel’s right to defend itself against terror, we must keep striving for a just and lasting peace for Israelis and Palestinians alike."
 
President Obama had words about the situation.

I think they were good ones.

Israel at war with Hamas after surprise attacks, around 900 Israelis dead

That's like the Titanic's iceberg commending the strength of the hull.

"All icebergs should be horrified and outraged by the brazen penetration of the Titanic's hull and the slaughter of innocent civilians," Obama began.

"We grieve for those who drowned, pray for the safe return of those clinging to flotsam, and stand squarely alongside the RMS Carpathia as its lifeboats enter the water," he added.

His statement also called for peace between icebergs and steel hulls.

"As we support the hull's right to buoyancy, we must keep striving for clear navigation and purity of the ice left behind."
 
Last post on this subject for now, but probably not for the night.

I think I mentioned earlier that some of the places in Israel we visited last summer with our annual college-level study trip were attacked by, or completely over run by, Hamas. This includes the town of Sderot, the Army outpost at Nahal Oz, and the Karem Shalom crossing station.

What was interesting about Sderot was how prepared they were for rocket attacks. Every home, we were told, (and in many cases could see from the street) had a saferoom that was artillery-resistant and doubled as a lockable panic room. The playground had bomb shelters that were in come cases cleverly disguised to be more kid-friendly. For example, one long shelter made of concrete culverts was painted up to look like a caterpillar to appear more kid-friendly.

...but artillery shelters and concrete caterpillars aren't much use against a ground assault.

There were also a number of Israeli Army units moving around in the town, in what seemed like a typical patrol. Not a whole lot of troops, but enough that I felt pretty comfortable while we were there.

IIRC we briefly stopped at Nahal Oz for lunch. It was a typical small Army outpost, kind of like what we might see in Iraq back in the day. A lot of the equipment, and the people there, were familiar even though it was a foreign Army in a foreign country. Quite a few mech vehicles and soft skinned vehicles. The Israelis use a Jeep variant for a primary military vehicle, which as a Jeep guy I appreciated. The soldiers there seemed ready, but not tense. I watched a Hamas video last night that purported to show Hamas fighters all over Nahal Oz.

From what I understand, Karem Shalom was attacked but I'm not sure if it, or the Eres crossing (or both) were over run. Based on the Hamas videos I watched last night, they got at least one of them. I have only been to Karem Shalom once and I didn't see all of it, so I couldn't tell if the video I watched was the crossing site I went to, or a different one.

I tend to take crappy photos, but I might be able to track down some better ones later. For now, these two photos are from inside the Karem Shalom crossing's briefing room. The first pic shows a bunch of different ways Palestinians attempted to smuggle in contraband through the station. The second photo is the remains of weapons shot at the crossing from inside Gaza.

IMG_1789.jpg IMG_1788.jpg
One of the other things we did last year was spend some time at a "terror tunnel" that the Israelis discovered and cut off, and now use as a training aid / tourist destination. We had a military escort while we were at the terror tunnel. One of the young women on the trip asked me a question about the Israeli vehicle shown in the picture below as everyone was queueing up to go into the tunnel. Whatever vehicle it was, we don't have in the US Army and I didn't know what it was, so we went to talk to the Israeli soldiers in the vehicle. They didn't speak English and I don't speak Hebrew, and by this time all of the translators were down in the tunnel. But we managed to ask them through gestures if they would allow us to look into the vehicle, which they gladly did. Then one of them took off his helmet and body armor and let my friend try it on. They even pulled out a mag and popped a bullet out of it (5.56 NATO green tip) for her to see. She later told me that was the first bullet she had ever handled in her life.
trying on helmet.png

It seems weird to think about that the military / security people we met in those locations, may now be dead--or worse, captured.
 
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Last post on this subject for now, but probably not for the night.

I'm tired and need to go to bed. I can also go out a limb and say you'll allow me the 10-ish hours for a proper response?

With that said, many of us understand indirect fire. I doubt any of us can comprehend the amount of IDF hitting a single location/ grid square.

Bunkers or not, that should enrage someone.

Good night, America. :-x
 
I was busy today, so I'll post a long winded response to some of todays posts.

First: Partial Intel failure, Israeli Navy has been kicking ass from the beginning. My take is they knew something was up, but under estimated, size, scope, complexity.

When governments fail to provide security for their people, vigilantism is inevitable.

It is coming soon to America, too, if we as a nation continue on this current trajectory.
One reason Police Departments were created was to cut down on vigilantism, Cops were needed to protect criminals and make sure they were alive for trial. It also reduced the number of innocents killed by vigilantes.
Flightradar24.com is interesting right now. A Navy P-8 orbiting over the Romanian coast and an Emirates flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv just landed.
I wonder what isn't showing up?
Hahahaha, leave it to Poland to get shit started!

We were bringing much needed medical supplies and communications equipment when our plane was shot out of the sky by a Ham-ass rocket. Time to get NATO involved LOL.
Poland is openly running a NEO. 737 came in today and took some folks home.

Regarding the C-17, two members of the US House of Representatives were in Israel when the attack started, Cory Booker and another member from New York (?). I'm going on a limb and saying the planes went there to evacuate them, and non-essential embassy staff.

Iran may have just fucked Russia, Putin just doesn't know it yet.

Israel hasn't sent anything worthwhile to the Ukraine (IRON DOME) because they need to play nice with Putin. The Russian-Iranian weapons connection may change that.

Let's see if America's Jewish population keeps voting Democrat at the box, and with their wallets.

Let's go Brandon.
 
That's like the Titanic's iceberg commending the strength of the hull.

"All icebergs should be horrified and outraged by the brazen penetration of the Titanic's hull and the slaughter of innocent civilians," Obama began.

"We grieve for those who drowned, pray for the safe return of those clinging to flotsam, and stand squarely alongside the RMS Carpathia as its lifeboats enter the water," he added.

His statement also called for peace between icebergs and steel hulls.

"As we support the hull's right to buoyancy, we must keep striving for clear navigation and purity of the ice left behind."

Damn, where is your poetry book?
 
I'm tired and need to go to bed. I can also go out a limb and say you'll allow me the 10-ish hours for a proper response?

With that said, many of us understand indirect fire. I doubt any of us can comprehend the amount of IDF hitting a single location/ grid square.

Bunkers or not, that should enrage someone.

Good night, America. :-x
Rest well, brother.
 
Why did Hamas attack, and why now? What does it hope to gain?

In hindsight, the drivers of Hamas’s startlingly well-planned, land-sea-air attack on Israel on Saturday were in plain sight.

The operation reflects a pattern of four wars and regular outbreaks of violence between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza since 2005, when Israel withdrew its military posts and forcibly removed 9,000 Israeli settlers from the territory.

Each time Hamas has launched rockets at Israel or engaged in similar provocations, it has drawn heavy retaliation from Israel in the form of major bombings on the Gaza Strip. Hamas, however, seems to regard this as a cost of doing business.

An important factor motivating Hamas towards violence is that it has to watch its flanks. Other smaller, but increasingly extremist groups, are contesting its authority in Gaza, notably Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

These groups have, at times, independently launched rocket attacks on Israel, which bring retribution on the whole territory.

On top of this, the Israeli government formed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last December is the most right wing in Israeli history. This government has made no secret of its desire to annex the West Bank and has permitted significant expansion of Jewish settlements in the territory, which are illegal under international law.

That has led to conflict between settlers and young West Bank Palestinians, who in the past year have formed a loose grouping known as the “Lions’ Den”.


Read more: Why the violence between Israel and the Palestinians may be entering a devastating new phase


This grouping, comprising independent militants with apparently no central control, has scant regard for the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank and is led by the octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas. The Palestinian Authority has little real administrative, security or moral authority in the territory.

The “Lions’ Den” also vies with Gaza militant groups for influence among Palestinian youth – both in Gaza and the West Bank.

Added to this, a minister in Netanyahu’s coalition, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has visited the Temple Mount, the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of the holiest shrines in Islam. This was considered a provocation by all Palestinians – both in the West Bank and Gaza. Further angering Palestinians, Israeli tourists also travelled to the site over the recent Sukkot holiday.

A visit to the Temple Mount by Ariel Sharon in 2000, then the leader of the opposition in Israel’s government, is generally regarded as the spark that ignited the Second Intifada from 2000-2005.

Under an agreement predating Israel’s foundation, Jordan has custodianship of the Al-Aqsa religious complex. Israel aimed to respect Jordan’s role when it signed the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty in 1994. But Palestinians see the visits by Israeli ministers and non-Muslim tourists as disrespectful of the sanctity of the site and counter to this undertaking.

Hamas has also claimed these visits have led to the desecration of the Al-Aqsa site, an argument obviously aimed at winning support from Muslims throughout the Arab and wider Islamic world.


Read more: After a shocking Hamas assault on Israel, both sides brace for the devastating fallout


Why attack now?​

Significantly, Hamas has named its action “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood”. This provides some clues to the primary reason for striking at this time, which emphasises what Hamas sees as Israeli acts of desecration of a holy Islamic site.

However, an additional motivating factor was likely the increasing tendency of Arab states to make peace agreements with Israel, as evidenced by the 2020 Abraham Accords, involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco.


There has recently been strong speculation that Saudi Arabia is about to make its own agreement with Israel.

This is of great concern to all Palestinians, not just those in the West Bank, as it further reduces pressure on Israel to reach a settlement with them. Netanyahu has made clear in his public statements that he prioritises peace with Arab states over eventual peace with the Palestinians.

Hamas does not recognise Israel, but has said it would observe a truce if Israel withdrew to its 1967 borders. Israel would be unlikely to take Hamas’s word on this and withdraw as demanded. But there would be even less chance of that condition ever being realised if Saudi Arabia were to conclude its own deal with Israel.

Another aspect of the timing is that it coincides almost precisely with the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur or Ramadan War in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel together. The significance of a Palestinian entity being able to surprise Israel in the same way would not be lost on Hamas.

So there were several objectives for Hamas to launch an attack at this time – and possibly a combination of them.

Hamas is likely to gain much sympathy from the wider Arab world, but little in the way of material assistance. Hamas’s military operation will likely cause Saudi Arabia to hold back from normalising relations with Israel for now. That said, it’s unlikely any of the Arab states that have signed the Abraham Accords will withdraw from them now in protest over Israeli retaliation against Gaza.

Where the conflict is headed?​

Where the conflict is headed is unclear. The Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon has already fired on positions in Israel’s north. But the extent to which it will become seriously involved will depend on its sponsor, Iran.

Tehran has generally been seen to want to keep Hezbollah’s considerable rocket and missile strength in reserve in case of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

There is also the question of whether “Lions’ Den” militants in the West Bank will launch their own attacks, effectively creating a third front against Israel. And a possible fourth front could come from attacks on Jewish Israelis by Arab Israelis living in Israel.

US President Joe Biden has already promised support for Israel, so there can be little doubt Israel will eventually get on top of these challenges. Netanyahu has warned of a long war, but it may prove reasonably short if Israel goes all out in its retaliation.

The main constraint on Israeli action against Gaza will be the fact that an unknown number of Israeli citizens have been kidnapped by Hamas militants and taken to the strip. Indiscriminate Israeli bombing would certainly put those lives at risk.

Israel will also be reluctant to put its defence forces in Gaza because of the risk of heavy casualties. However, it may send special forces if it gains intelligence on the whereabouts of its kidnapped citizens.

A further risk for Israel in its retaliation is that too brutal an assault on Gaza could turn Western opinion against it. So far, however, Western governments are strongly supportive of Israel and unsympathetic towards Hamas.

The overall lesson for Israel is that it has to develop a policy for managing the Palestinians living in the areas it controls.

The current situation, in which hardline militants are contained in Gaza, while Israeli forces curtail the actions of Palestinians living in Israel and the West Bank, has suited the Israeli government for many years. It has been able to ignore Arab and international pressure to negotiate a two-state solution or to acquiesce in a one-state solution.

The real significance of Hamas’s operation is that such a non-policy can no longer continue.
 
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