ThunderHorse
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The China Thread (Threat)
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R.Caerbannog
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Hope the Solomon Islands got paid in gold, hard assets, or devalued USD, cause the Chinese Yaun is basically worthless. After the Evergrande banking collapse, I fail to see how any country can economically tie themselves to China. China is fucked.
That said... I wonder if bribing a deal, to stage forces on the Solomon Islands, is a desperation move of a dying man.
Debt Diplomacy is still a thing, even if the internet tries to say otherwise.
China has sold Serbia some* FK3 SAM units. 6x Y20s showed up in Belgrade overnight so possibly delivering those. Of note at least one of the Y20s had their countermeasures panel open for the flight. Routing looks like via Istanbul.
*Unknown how many at this stage.
*Unknown how many at this stage.
The Sollies have had visits so far this month from our ONA chief Andrew Shearer & ASIS boss Paul Symon, our Minister for the Pacific Ned Seselja went on Tuesday & Kurt Campbell is arriving later this month. That's quite a team, but it is a serious issue with the usual wide open agreement with little detail from China.
R.Caerbannog
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Seems like China is gonna try and start brushfires before they collapse. Is there any way to punish the Solomon Islands for getting in bed with the Chinese? Cause if the CCP makes a foot hold there they wouldn't they be poised to strike at the very heart of Australia?
Considering China is a dying animal faced with total and complete collapse, I wonder if they plan on lashing out as their world starts to shrink. Any way to cut off energy imports to China and bring them to heel? Cause I hear they're very reliant on Aussie coal. Maybe Australia can start using it's resources to expand and build up itself up instead of exporting their resources to a bunch of ungrateful commies.
I'd like to thank Russia for their efforts in Ukraine and confirming for us that we really need to be focused on China
Obama says Russia isn't a threat.
The Sollies is a sovereign nation so they can make decisions on their own behalf. Others can only advise & apply whatever pressure they can to persuade them to look around & see what's occurring elsewhere. As for resources, coal in particular, it's currently about $310 per tonne & usually sells for about $50 per tonne. Our government is banking the change as we had a huge handout to the population during C-19 keep the ship afloat, which services the debt, so it's economically necessary.
China cut off trade in lobsters, barley & a couple of others, so just tinkering around the edges really, but kept the commodities it really needs, like iron ore. Make no mistake, they need us (the west) more than we need them, as our coking & thermal coal can be sold anywhere as it's good. As an example, they cut out coal imports from us, leading to an energy crisis there last winter; no coal, no heat. We now sell to other markets, a middle power gave them the middle finger. The real threat is the grey warfare strategy they use, which so far has been difficult to counter.
Yep...we heard it from the Puppet Master himself....
R.Caerbannog
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Any way to fight fire with fire? China's forces and people are for the most part vulnerable and stick out like a sore thumb wherever they go. Considering a large part of their subterfuge revolves around peons in pressed suits promising loans, I'd think going after those facilitators would make life hard for the CCP.
You're right that China needs the West more the we need them and after the Covid debacle the CCP needs to pay. Same with their cronies and bought helpers.
Not sure if it helps, but a little bird has been singing about growing discontent in Shanghai and other parts of China. Especially with food shortages and govt lockdowns, it seems the people are pissed. With Winnie the Pooh holed up in it's bunker and parts of China starving, I wonder how long they can maintain equilibrium.
Their B&R is difficult to compete with & African nations are a good example. Chinese firms want a good, oil or similar & approach the government & propose to extract it & share the profit with the said government. No problem except the locals do not really benefit as Chinese workers do the work.
The western version of the same proposal is that in order to extract the good, the partnership needs human rights, democracy, legitimate voting etc. so it’s plain to see which is winning. Again, it’s very hard to counter.
As for Shanghai, it looks to be increasing with shortages of food & all the issues that go with that. My guess is that it will only get worse in certain areas. As China is a pretty big country it may be fine elsewhere.
The western version of the same proposal is that in order to extract the good, the partnership needs human rights, democracy, legitimate voting etc. so it’s plain to see which is winning. Again, it’s very hard to counter.
As for Shanghai, it looks to be increasing with shortages of food & all the issues that go with that. My guess is that it will only get worse in certain areas. As China is a pretty big country it may be fine elsewhere.
The People's Liberation Army with 2,185,000 active duty personnel (not counting reserves) will maintain equilibrium as long as it retains discipline, cohesion and loyalty under the CCP. Discontent be damned.
From the Army War College: The PLA in 2025
https://nuke.fas.org/guide/china/pla-2025.pdf
1) The people's discontent in China is irrelevant because of China's military and the government's willingness to use it as a sledgehammer on a fly.
2) As long as the West has cheap goods China can get away with a LOT of human rights violations. I'm talking the Uighurs looking like white collar criminals and not concentration camp inmates.
3) Africa? The people poor? Starving? Chinese money helping them out? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Oh, shit, that's... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!! I need to breathe...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! African leaders don't give a flying fuck about their people. The Chinese are buying access from those in power and that's it. Africa knows two things: how to exploit its people and how to exploit its land. The continent of Africa practically exists to be exploited. The Chinese are the most recent in a long line of people harvesting that continent.
2) As long as the West has cheap goods China can get away with a LOT of human rights violations. I'm talking the Uighurs looking like white collar criminals and not concentration camp inmates.
3) Africa? The people poor? Starving? Chinese money helping them out? BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Oh, shit, that's... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!! I need to breathe...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! African leaders don't give a flying fuck about their people. The Chinese are buying access from those in power and that's it. Africa knows two things: how to exploit its people and how to exploit its land. The continent of Africa practically exists to be exploited. The Chinese are the most recent in a long line of people harvesting that continent.
R.Caerbannog
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Winnie the Pooh is cut off from the outside world, their economy is in shambles, and what's left is being outsourced. Discontent, especially in one of the Chinas crown jewel cities is a soft point that could be pushed.
That 2 million strong army is already tasked out all over China. You think people here in the Us were peeved about lockdowns, Xi has billion plus people who've lost their income, savings, and investments.
LOL
"Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown"
You're giving the Chinese people too much credit.
Tiananmen Square 1989. Students versus tanks. How'd that work out?
R.Caerbannog
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Think outside the box. If Tiananmen and HK have taught us anything is that for govt's like China the populace needs some sort of strike capability. Muslim extremists did it with RPG's, IED's, and EFP's, while the Ukrainians are doing it with NLAWS, drones, and Javelins.
One would think Shanghai would have the capability to cobble or import something of the like.
Bro, I’m just not buying it. There ain’t much of a box to think outside of when it comes to China. It’s a population that’s been indoctrinated since 1949. Every once in a while some students or intellectuals get a burr under their saddle to stage a protest. They just get squashed like a bug by the Big Machine.
I'm not sure where you get your ideas from but they're not grounded in reality. Ukraine isn't the same situation at all- they're being supplied because they were invaded. Giving a tiny (let me stress that) amount of people in Shanghai weapons to fight what would be a short and sharp losing battle (heavily indoctrinated population acting against them and a mass surveillance system the DDR would have killed for) that would start a war, with a nuclear power, for what would be a futile gesture.
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