Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[DA SWO]

Those pipelines are trash, salt water intrusion will make repairs too costly.

I don't know who did it, but to assume only Russia could do it is naive. US and other countries have the capability. Short of a confession, we will never know.

I am pro-Ukraine, but anyone who thinks all the money is spent honestly is naive. Look at the last line of the last package announce. Funding for sustainment, logistics, training. That money is going to get siphoned off into Politician and Sr Military pockets. Hell, R's and D's will probably get some kickback (Hunter gets a consulting contract?).
That's where I draw the line. There is never accountability for fundage.

FWIW- I also see this as a NATO vs Russia war, Ukraine is just our proxy.
China is a threat, but not the boogyman everyone thinks. They are a maritime nation, and have to navigate choke points galore (but that is a discussion for another day).

 

[ThunderHorse]

Fun times ahead...

Putin to annex four Ukrainian territories in Kremlin ceremony on Friday

 

[RackMaster]

Fun times ahead...

Putin to annex four Ukrainian territories in Kremlin ceremony on Friday

With his nuke comments, this explains sending cannon fodder to shore defenses. Nothing to lose with fallout.

 

[Steve1839]

Interesting turn of events. "You can't draft me, I'm an American"...

U.S. Moscow Embassy security alert warns Americans to leave Russia

ETA: Seems like impressment is one of the issues that led to the War of 1812.

 

[Cookie_]

I love most of the Russian people. They are awesome. I hate Russia. It is not awesome. People assume that because they look like us (westerners) they think like us, and that ain't true. The people are in a real pickle.

There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.

His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. They generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense. He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.

Because of the above mindset, he doesn't think the average Russian citizen has a well defined "line" when it comes to the actions the Putin government takes; he likened them to the frog from the boiling water parable.
He gave a few scenarios in which he could see the Russian populace being motivated to act counter to the government; the use of nuclear weapons, invasion by a foreign force, and partial/mass mobilizations.

 

[Devildoc]

There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.

His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. They generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense. He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.

Because of the above mindset, he doesn't think the average Russian citizen has a well defined "line" when it comes to the actions the Putin government takes; he likened them to the frog from the boiling water parable.
He gave a few scenarios in which he could see the Russian populace being motivated to act counter to the government; the use of nuclear weapons, invasion by a foreign force, and partial/mass mobilizations.

I agree with his assessment. They are also paranoid nationalists (love for Mother Russia) with an ongoing sense of persecution who think everyone is out to get them, and often support 'defensive invasions' as a tactic to secure buffer areas and states.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1575374283529920512?s=46&t=Nu0ZnXQPZ8JXX1Q3hND57Q

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575265303130361859

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575531759374147584

 

[Marauder06]

There's a YouTube guy named Vlad Vexler (can't link because I'm at work) that had an interesting video on the bolded a few months ago.

His argument is that the average Russian citizen have historically been pretty de-politized when it comes to national level politics. They generally don't care what happens unless it directly affects them in a physical or otherwise tactile sense. He also argues that the tend to have a "power makes right" thought process when it comes to things, IE it would annoy the average citizen that a rich person can get out of a traffic ticket with a bribe, but they don't see the bribe as being a problem in and of itself, because it's what people with power can do.

Because of the above mindset, he doesn't think the average Russian citizen has a well defined "line" when it comes to the actions the Putin government takes; he likened them to the frog from the boiling water parable.
He gave a few scenarios in which he could see the Russian populace being motivated to act counter to the government; the use of nuclear weapons, invasion by a foreign force, and partial/mass mobilizations.

Very interesting, thank you for posting that.

Regarding the bolded part: I think most people are like that. That's how you get a 20-year period of warfare; "if it doesn't affect me, I don't really care." The main reason the Viet Nam war ended when it did was because of the resistance to it. The reason there was resistance to it was because there was a draft, i.e. it could affect me or someone I actually care about, vs. the chumps who volunteer to go off to war.

That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days. Get serious about it, or get out.

 

[Topkick]

Very interesting, thank you for posting that.

Regarding the bolded part: I think most people are like that. That's how you get a 20-year period of warfare; "if it doesn't affect me, I don't really care." The main reason the Viet Nam war ended when it did was because of the resistance to it. The reason there was resistance to it was because there was a draft, i.e. it could affect me or someone I actually care about, vs. the chumps who volunteer to go off to war.

That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days. Get serious about it, or get out.

Agree, except I'm generally against a draft.
I get the need for more troops and it may come to that, but as a Senior NCO, I'd rather have 10 good soldiers than 30 RagBags who don't want to be there.

 

[Marauder06]

Agree, except I'm generally against a draft.
I get the need for more troops and it may come to that, but as a Senior NCO, I'd rather have 10 good soldiers than 30 RagBags who don't want to be there.

I agree from a military perspective. But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them. So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft. It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.

 

[RackMaster]

I agree from a military perspective. But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them. So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft. It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.

A year of national service of some sort, tie it to apprenticeships and a war clause, forcing retention or call up past your initial service. Give them a very basic training, then off to public service of some sort. Rebuilding failing infrastructure would be a good use.

 

[Topkick]

I agree from a military perspective. But the only ways wars get "real" to anyone is if they are directly affected by them. So in a country like ours, which hasn't had a hostile foreign force on its shores since like 1812, the only way to do that is a draft. It's the best way to make sure a republic nation is committed to a fight is to have its citizens vested.

And to go to war for real reasons. Take Iraq, I personally remember some civilians in my world saying they didn't believe Iraq had WMDs and/or were involved in 9/11. Can you expect people to get behind a war if they are not convinced it has any merit?

 

[pardus]

That's why going forward we should require a declaration of war, a war tax, and a draft for any military combat action that lasts longer than 30 days. Get serious about it, or get out.

A year of national service of some sort, tie it to apprenticeships and a war clause, forcing retention or call up past your initial service. Give them a very basic training, then off to public service of some sort. Rebuilding failing infrastructure would be a good use.

Agreed, Along with a mandatory and at least commensurate increase in budget for the VA.

 

[SpitfireV]

I liked Germany's old system either a year of military service or a year of, for lack of a better term offhand, social service in a hospital, retirement homes etc.

 

[Topkick]

I liked Germany's old system either a year of military service or a year of, for lack of a better term offhand, social service in a hospital, retirement homes etc.

I'm all about an all volunteer military, but I like this. If you don't want to fight, you can certainly help in some other capacity.

 

[pardus]

I hope it was slow and exceptionally painful!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575471774237589509

 

[Devildoc]

Compulsory national service with a partial draft; a draft tied to incentive for volunteering: "sign up and get choice of x, y, or z. Drafted, you get no choice."

 

[pardus]

Compulsory national service with a partial draft; a draft tied to incentive for volunteering: "sign up and get choice of x, y, or z. Drafted, you get no choice."

Which of course now includes females.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575548156603174912

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575450978685444104