Israel and Iran

[Marauder06]

Saudis reportedly told Iran their air space is closed to any strikes against Israel. Violations, by missile, drone, etc. will be considered violation of Saudi sovereignty. What would the consequences be of a violation?

Even if Iran cared about that, which I don't think they do, there is plenty of real estate they can shoot over that isn't part of Saudi.

 

[DA SWO]

Saudis reportedly told Iran their air space is closed to any strikes against Israel. Violations, by missile, drone, etc. will be considered violation of Saudi sovereignty. What would the consequences be of a violation?

We reopened PSAB, and I believe it has a Fighter Squadron there.
The scope of the response is key, just hit Israel, or touch a few other countries too.

 

[Kaldak]

I saw a report earlier that markets are reacting badly. Some of it might be US-recession related, but some of it also might be anticipation of something a little more disruptive than token missile fire by Iran.

Markets are seeing people take profits on what's been a crazy run up. Some earnings last week didn't impress, nor did the jobs report, so a slow down from the recent highs is looking likely. Most likely not a recession, but not the high flying bull run we've been riding. It's correction time across the board.

But, don't worry, the Fed will cut interest rates leading into the election and more money will flow into the stock market. Just in time for November.

 

[RackMaster]

Apparently Iran issued a NOTAM.

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[DA SWO]

Even if Iran cared about that, which I don't think they do, there is plenty of real estate they can shoot over that isn't part of Saudi.

View attachment 45451

Over fly Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

 

[CQB]

S

Interesting stuff on social media, the UK and the US are urging their citizens in Lebanon to leave the country as soon as possible.

Same here, we have a lot of Lebanese in Oz.

 

[CQB]

I think Israel has us over a barrel.

Biden has us committed to various red lies (typo?) in the sand and Trump is itching for a war with Iran. It is almost win/ win for Israel regardless of who is in the WH.

I’d disagree, Trump has shown no appetite for a blue, going back to his opposition to Iraq. There wasn’t any new blow ups his first time around. I’m not sure about the other candidate.
As for Jews elsewhere in the ME, over time they have always sought protection from the big dog, Sadam being one and the Assads being another, so their relationship with the US is more of the same IMO. Let’s hope there’s going to be a lowering of the temperature.

 

[GOTWA]

Went to the gym today for the first time in two years. Gotta get back into war fighting shape.

 

[DA SWO]

Then that's two strikes he recalled.

If Milley was so hell-bent for war with Iran under Trump, why did he shrink from it under Biden?

Do we know he changed positions when Biden came in?

Or did he understand that the Obama/Biden/Harris administration was going to be Iran Friendly, so he stopped agitating?

Would Biden taking military action make ending sanctions against Iran politically difficult?

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

Went to the gym today for the first time in two years. Gotta get back into war fighting shape.

We're going to need every swinging dick.

 

[Kraut783]

Iran backed Iraqi militias are being suspected….rocket attack at Al Asad AB

A rocket attack at an Iraqi military base injures US personnel, officials tell AP

 

[CQB]

Iran backed Iraqi militias are being suspected….rocket attack at Al Asad AB

A rocket attack at an Iraqi military base injures US personnel, officials tell AP

Yep, the southern border of Iraq is rubbery, if that's where it's coming from.

 

[AWP]

Do we know he changed positions when Biden came in?

Or did he understand that the Obama/Biden/Harris administration was going to be Iran Friendly, so he stopped agitating?

Would Biden taking military action make ending sanctions against Iran politically difficult?

Great questions and I don't have those answers. I'd guess: I don't know, Yes, and Yes.

That said, whatever the cause or persons involved, we had a hawkish position towards Iran under Trump. He even sent Kushner on a ME tour where Kushner received a briefing on Iran's missile capabilities. I sat in on that briefing and was rather impressed with Kushner, but I digress. Also, considering that we did some provocative stuff AFTER the November elections, and the whole Chinese nuke call, I can't see Milley being the architect of our Iran policy. I have a hard time believing that we did so many things towards Iran without Trump's knowledge or consent.

 

[Marauder06]

Now there's talk of a potential pre-emptive strike: Report: Israel could preemptively strike Iran if intelligence shows attack is imminent

 

[DA SWO]

Now there's talk of a potential pre-emptive strike: Report: Israel could preemptively strike Iran if intelligence shows attack is imminent

Not sure they could do it without Saudi or US help.
Tyranny of distance is a thing.

 

[AWP]

Not sure they could do it without Saudi or US help.
Tyranny of distance is a thing.

I had to look it up, but in theory they have enough tankers to drag a strike package around the Arabian peninsula. The downside for them is, those 707's aren't exactly stealthy.

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

Putin pressuring Iran to not attack civilians in Israel after the killing Ham-Ass' top guy last week. He worries about the implications for a broader ME war and regional instability... Oh the irony.

Cross thread points?

Putin urges Iran to avoid civilian deaths in looming attack on Israel: report

 

[BloodStripe]

Putin wants needs Iranian weapons in Ukraine to help him. Of course he doesn’t want Iran getting into a large scale conflict.

 

[ThunderHorse]

This probably fits here. Elections have consequences. Like the BLM riots faced few consequences, the Pro Hamas riots in England have had little. But the white guys protesting (and some rioting) are going to go to Jail in the UK when their Hamasistani counterparts get to roam the streets free of consequence. But let's move beyond that, the Starmer administration is enacting laws that restrict speech and the idiot in charge of the met police thinks he can extradite Americans and others with them.

UK police commissioner threatens to extradite, jail US citizens over online posts: ‘We’ll come after you’

 

[Marauder06]

Wait, why would we pressure Israel to do a cease fire with Hamas? I mean, is Israel the one holding our people hostage??

U.S. and other mediators threaten to call out Israel, Hamas if Gaza hostage talks fail