That one is actually making the FB rounds again. On the plus side, it's a good indicator of who I should "unfollow" to clean up my wall.
The Trump Presidency
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That one is actually making the FB rounds again. On the plus side, it's a good indicator of who I should "unfollow" to clean up my wall.
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Obama's final "fuck you" to Benjamin Netanyahu.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Officials say the Obama administration in its waning hours defied Republican opposition and quietly released $221 million to the Palestinian Authority that GOP members of Congress had been blocking.
A State Department official and several congressional aides said the outgoing administration formally notified Congress it would spend the money Friday morning. The official said former Secretary of State John Kerry had informed some lawmakers of the move shortly before he left the State Department for the last time Thursday. The aides said written notification dated Jan. 20 was sent to Congress just hours before Donald Trump took the oath of office.
US sent $221 million to Palestinians in Obama's last hours
Obama defied Congress to hand $220 MILLION to Palestinians | Daily Mail Online
WASHINGTON (AP) — Officials say the Obama administration in its waning hours defied Republican opposition and quietly released $221 million to the Palestinian Authority that GOP members of Congress had been blocking.
A State Department official and several congressional aides said the outgoing administration formally notified Congress it would spend the money Friday morning. The official said former Secretary of State John Kerry had informed some lawmakers of the move shortly before he left the State Department for the last time Thursday. The aides said written notification dated Jan. 20 was sent to Congress just hours before Donald Trump took the oath of office.
US sent $221 million to Palestinians in Obama's last hours
Obama defied Congress to hand $220 MILLION to Palestinians | Daily Mail Online
I genuinely hope Trump has his team working a "better trade agreement" to replace the TPP. The US needs a much stronger foothold in the region what with the Philippines strongly moving away from us and China maneuvering to strengthen its influence worldwide as the main creditor nation since IMF structural adjustment loans are failing. Honestly, when I read the main highlights of the TPP as put out by the State Department, I figured we would lose the textile and apparel industry immediately. However, the vast majority of textile or apparel products that I've ever seen read "Made in (insert Asian country here)". Given that, how many jobs could we really be losing in the textile industry? Hell, I would think that the myriad small firms in the US that buy those foreign shirts and slap their logo on them would be excited to sell way more shirts at a lower price without cutting into profit margins. In fact, I would say the consumer gains, and small apparel business gains would more than makeup for that loss while some capital manufacturers would gain in productivity from selling capital equipment to those apparel exporting countries for years to come. The US also gained in the area of removed tariffs for agricultural exports, and since the US subsidizes this industry heavily, like real heavily. I live near, have worked on, and hunt on farmland from the middle of North Louisiana all the way to the Mississippi River. I have never in my life met a farmer that was hurting for money in any shape, form, or fashion so a reduction of subsidies wouldn't put much of a damper in their pockets (except for hands that barely graduated high school). Fortunately, removing tariffs, lowering prices, and increasing output should see more money flow to farmers and thus, ease the burden of the US in providing those subsidies since less subsidies would be required. Don't forget the strengthened intellectual property regulation that would likely see royalties paid to US based firms.
My thoughts were that the TPP was solely created to counter Asia. We surely aren't countering them in any way except for defense. Trade agreements don't only act to benefit the economic welfare. Looking at it from a realist perspective, maintaining influence in a specific region is another benefit. With the move from the Washington consensus to the Beijing consensus in the developing nations, the soft power influence that trade agreements bring will be of great value in the years to come. The only good thing that I see coming out of scrapping the TPP would be a capping/reducing H1B visas. H1B visas should be saved for workers that are unbelievably skilled or specialized that takes years and years of experience or education to learn. If H1B visas are being used to fill gaps in the workforce such as the IT industry, they should be scrapped and companies should be on the dole for finding incentives to entice people to train for those jobs while the government reforms high school education to include more computer science classes or certifications. Some BS class like intro to business applications like Excel or Word doesn't count.
TLDR: Trump needs to have a new TPP style trade agreement in the making with an education reform package put forth either before or during trade agreement negototiations to fill in gaps that will be left from H1B visa reduction/elimination. That education reform will need to include computer science and more job related training type skills as has been suggested elsewhere on this forum. If he doesn't do both, the US will not only cede influence to China, but see our economic productivity and GDP decline which also benefits China.
My thoughts were that the TPP was solely created to counter Asia. We surely aren't countering them in any way except for defense. Trade agreements don't only act to benefit the economic welfare. Looking at it from a realist perspective, maintaining influence in a specific region is another benefit. With the move from the Washington consensus to the Beijing consensus in the developing nations, the soft power influence that trade agreements bring will be of great value in the years to come. The only good thing that I see coming out of scrapping the TPP would be a capping/reducing H1B visas. H1B visas should be saved for workers that are unbelievably skilled or specialized that takes years and years of experience or education to learn. If H1B visas are being used to fill gaps in the workforce such as the IT industry, they should be scrapped and companies should be on the dole for finding incentives to entice people to train for those jobs while the government reforms high school education to include more computer science classes or certifications. Some BS class like intro to business applications like Excel or Word doesn't count.
TLDR: Trump needs to have a new TPP style trade agreement in the making with an education reform package put forth either before or during trade agreement negototiations to fill in gaps that will be left from H1B visa reduction/elimination. That education reform will need to include computer science and more job related training type skills as has been suggested elsewhere on this forum. If he doesn't do both, the US will not only cede influence to China, but see our economic productivity and GDP decline which also benefits China.
TPP was not confined to any industry. As far as a replacement, President Trump has stated plainly that he would pursue individual agreements that better protected our interests. I suspect we will see agriculture subsidies being removed/replaced as well. The intellectual property portion is a mess as it stands today. I've seen some of the inside of that industry personally. The wealthy buy a patented technology and then shelve it while they look for everyone they can sue for infringement. You can become very wealthy by simply researching patent infringements without actually being the owner of the patent. They're called patent trolls. TPP would have opened the door for people outside the US that had competing technologies to begin lawsuits against US companies for infringement.
Asia can still be countered by trade agreements. Replacing a blanket agreement with individual agreements does not soften our position, it makes it more flexible, directed and less prone to exploitable errors.
I've expounded at length in other threads about how H1-B visas have destroyed the US IT industry. That is the primary use for them and it's keeping our own workers out of the market as well as causing massive salary stagnation in the industry. Almost 10 times as many H1-Bs are granted for IT than any other industry and they account for very close to the combined total of ALL other industries. They aren't being used to fill gaps in IT, they are being used as a vehicle for cheap labor in place of American workers, especially recent CS graduates. Eliminate H1-B and the positions will be immediately filled by American workers that have been displaced by this cheap labor.
Top H1B Visa Sponsor by NAICS Industry : 2015 H1B Visa Reports | MyVisaJobs.com
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I went in search of some unrelated Palestine news to see what they were up to lately, I soon realized that the media is spamming the interwebs with Palestine propaganda.
A particular gem from The New Yorker-
Palestine in the Age of Trump
The chauvinistic gov't where women serve in the infantry; the government with the best treatment of gays in the middle-east.
What an example of the gross media bias against Trump. When Israel and Palestine are being brought into question by a liberal news outlet, Israel is made out to be too conservative to fit the agenda?
The TPP repeal is interesting to me. I generally believe that as a semi-hegemon, free trade benefits us. However, any change to the economic system creates winners and losers, and the losers get to vote too. I think BREXIT and the election of President Trump were huge wakeup calls to world leaders. Governing by fiat and not listening to the will of the people is a sure way to lose one's grip on power. However, too much populism is a recipe for disaster as well.
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Word is he will renegotiate deals on a case-by-case basis. It's going to be interesting to see how the renegotiations are worded with the Asian countries and how they pertain to China.
I'll admit I don't follow economics like I should anymore. After I stopped teaching International Relations I kind of began to lose interest. Trade is enormously important though, both at home and abroad. I hope we're making good strategic decisions and not just focusing on short term tactical gain.
What part of the TPP interests you the most?
I thought this article had some interesting insights into the dynamics of relationships inside the Trump administration: The first days inside Trump’s White House: Fury, tumult and a reboot
I think though, you always have to take articles like this with a grain of salt. In intelligence reporting from HUMINT sources one of the key things collectors indicate is whether the source is aware of who they are reporting to and where that information is going - it's critical for assessing why they're saying what they're saying. Pieces of journalism like this are no different - a number of people are trying to assert positions, direct a narrative, and influence opinions at a variety of different levels - including in their own internal infighting. I've always thought Bob Woodward books - which are a case study in the same thing - would make a great lesson for training analysts on interpreting HUMINT reports, especially from overt sources.
So, I wouldn't take everything sources are saying in the article as necessarily accurate - but I think it gives some great perspective on the dynamics taking shape influencing the internal decision-making of the President and the administration.
I think though, you always have to take articles like this with a grain of salt. In intelligence reporting from HUMINT sources one of the key things collectors indicate is whether the source is aware of who they are reporting to and where that information is going - it's critical for assessing why they're saying what they're saying. Pieces of journalism like this are no different - a number of people are trying to assert positions, direct a narrative, and influence opinions at a variety of different levels - including in their own internal infighting. I've always thought Bob Woodward books - which are a case study in the same thing - would make a great lesson for training analysts on interpreting HUMINT reports, especially from overt sources.
So, I wouldn't take everything sources are saying in the article as necessarily accurate - but I think it gives some great perspective on the dynamics taking shape influencing the internal decision-making of the President and the administration.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
So Conway came up with the term: alternative facts. The authors of that piece have come up with the term: faulty facts.
Dakota Access and Keystone Pipelines are a go!
Trump Gives Green Light To Keystone, Dakota Access Pipelines
Dakota Access and Keystone Pipelines are a go!
Trump Gives Green Light To Keystone, Dakota Access Pipelines
Being able to more accurately explain the reason a quasi-hegemon like the United States actually benefits politically, culturally, and economically in the long term by protecting and promoting an open trading system, and conversely, why domestic US politicians would want to block its implementation. I think I did a pretty decent job this morning (I always start class off with a current events discussion) but my knowledge level on the specifics of the TPP are pretty limited. Fortunately no one asked me any in-depth questions about it today.
Damn dude you're on a roll with these kinds of insights lately.
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Thanks man. I came out on the alternate list today so I'm building up credibility for when I launch my whisper campaign to discredit those on the primary list.
"People are saying the incoming G-2 of the 82nd runs a fight-club for homeless people out of his basement. I'm not saying that, but people are saying it..."
Now I just have to figure out how to get a twitter account...
Agreed on the fact that Asia can be countered by trade agreements in the region. However, I don't believe that 10 individual agreements has the same affect as 1 agreement to create and potentially magnify over time a free trade zone that excludes China. With 10 individual agreements that will probably need to be updated at a decade time frame, China is also free to make those same agreements. A free trade zone that excludes one of the potential regional hegemons greatly erodes regional influence and prevents future gains with the US' ability to continue China's exclusion in a free trade zone. China would probably still pursue individual trade agreements, but the collective gain of influence will be much less than it would have otherwise been.
I'm not as well read on H1B visas and intellectual property problems so I defer that scrapping the TPP is good on those fronts, but I also agreed before that H1B visas need to be and probably will be greatly reduced under Trump if they have been manipulated to provide cheap labor rather than prevent technological loss of competitiveness.
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What makes her think this was ever a good idea? The part that I would be most concerned about, is that she felt okay openly acknowledging her violation of The Hatch Act, but does not appear to be concerned that she is also stating that if it came down to it, she'd let the President of the United States take bullet instead of her.
Disclaimer - I was not familiar with The Hatch Act, and had to look it up. In a nutshell it states that a person in her position cannot not openly campaign for one candidate over the other.
Secret Service agent wrote she wouldn't take a bullet for Trump
In her post, O’Grady acknowledged that expressing her political beliefs on social media is a violation of the Hatch Act. The act prohibits executive branch members, excluding the president, vice president and other designed officials, from making partisan statements.
“As a public servant for nearly 23 years, I struggle to not violate the Hatch Act. So I keep quiet and skirt the median. To do otherwise can be a criminal offense for those in my position,” she wrote. “Despite the fact that I am expected to take a bullet for both sides. But this world has changed and I have changed. And I would take jail time over a bullet or an endorsement for what I believe to be disaster to this country and the strong and amazing women and minorities who reside here. Hatch Act be damned. I am with Her.”
O'Grady serves as a Secret Service agent in Denver, where she helps coordinate presidential trips to the area.
Disclaimer - I was not familiar with The Hatch Act, and had to look it up. In a nutshell it states that a person in her position cannot not openly campaign for one candidate over the other.
Secret Service agent wrote she wouldn't take a bullet for Trump
In her post, O’Grady acknowledged that expressing her political beliefs on social media is a violation of the Hatch Act. The act prohibits executive branch members, excluding the president, vice president and other designed officials, from making partisan statements.
“As a public servant for nearly 23 years, I struggle to not violate the Hatch Act. So I keep quiet and skirt the median. To do otherwise can be a criminal offense for those in my position,” she wrote. “Despite the fact that I am expected to take a bullet for both sides. But this world has changed and I have changed. And I would take jail time over a bullet or an endorsement for what I believe to be disaster to this country and the strong and amazing women and minorities who reside here. Hatch Act be damned. I am with Her.”
O'Grady serves as a Secret Service agent in Denver, where she helps coordinate presidential trips to the area.
Likely fix
Here's another article I saw today I found very interesting. Rick Perlestein is an author and historian I've really enjoyed. I think his 3-part series on the rise of the modern Republican party is phenomenal though I haven't yet finished the 3rd book (The Bridge). He is definitely a liberal in both the political sense and the political science definition - but is also a well-regarded historian. This essay I think is very informative in it's academic take on a clash of worldviews - but is written from a liberal perspective so if that shit is going to turn you off from the beginning don't bother.
I asked my student why he voted for Trump. The answer was thoughtful, smart, and terrifying.
I asked my student why he voted for Trump. The answer was thoughtful, smart, and terrifying.
Your knowledge is limited because we were told it had to be ratified before we could see what is in it. That's my only reason for asking my Senators to vote no. Let me read it, ask questions and then send you a letter. This (to me) was no different than ACA, smoke and mirrors with quasi-apologies afterwards.
I doubt she is in her position long, losing her clearance will probably make it hard for her to stay in Government.
Decent article, too bad he let his political bias sneak in towards the end (he apparently doesn't think Hillary is corrupt)
This story made me look up what the "Lost Cause myth" was. Is that really still taught in the US?
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