The Trump Presidency

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Weren't you saying how accredited gov't intelligence folks were full of shit like 24 hours ago? And yes, the details of those unverified reports are very likely bullshit. There may be some ties to Russia, some ongoing relationships between the Trump campaign, and there is almost certainly a file in the Kremlin on the PE with some unflattering stuff but accusations of essentially being a sleeper agent are on par with SEN McCain being a Manchurian candidate thanks to his time as a POW.

Unless the PE makes that accusation on twitter - then it's a fact and if you disagree with it you're a whinny liberal bitch who is tearing our country apart.
The IC can be full of shit, especially when they're directed to make a packet to get us on a War Footing. Also, I'd believe the IC is less full in comparison to a private intelligence firm that was hired to build a packet of dirt by both the Republican opposition and HRC.
 
This whole election I kept thinking of PE Trump saying how he could straight up shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose voters. Whether this particular new thing is true or not, the fact that so many follow him so blindly, is very upsetting.
 
You're right, but the description comes from a journalist who is probably not spun up on the nuances of intelligence language. That's not to say that this guy is an A1 super duper source extraordinaire, but I imagine that his information accuracy is also probably pretty good.

Definitely - I think congress (and maybe the President) are in the same boat on the reliability thing. I definitely believe this guy was told this story - and likely from more than one source. Still, doesn't mean the story is true - just means several people believe it and/or have a reason to spread it.

The IC can be full of shit, especially when they're directed to make a packet to get us on a War Footing. Also, I'd believe the IC is less full in comparison to a private intelligence firm that was hired to build a packet of dirt by both the Republican opposition and HRC.

So, you think Russia didn't hack the DNC as part of a campaign to help PE Trump with the election - as the IC contends. But, you do think this private security firm is right that PE Trump has been working closely with the Russian government for his whole campaign because they have incriminating evidence against him including video of him engaged with prostitutes and a 'golden shower' show of some sort. Does that make you support the PE more or less?

I thought during the debates when HRC trotted out her 'I call it trumped up trickle down' line it was pretty lame. Now I'm thinking that's a pretty decent meme...
 
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I have produced some hideous farts, some used to cropdust (Xthread points), and they have NEVER smelled as bad as this story. Russian hacks, Republicans undermining (or trying to) Trump in comical ways, the FBI seemingly decided its law enforcement and investigation process is irrelevant (email and now this story), private intel firms, foreign nationals investigating Russian interference in a US presidential election....holy shit. If this were a movie it would land a sub-4.0 on Rotten Tomatoes. What is this, some 11th hour attempt to set the stage for impeachment?

This is such a bucket of fail I can't trust either side's argument in full.
 
I don't understand what 'sides' there are to this. Today the PE says he believes Russia was behind the hack on the DNC - essentially coming around to the IC position even though there were still some hems and haws. The rest of the accusations are unsubstantiated - and have been reported as unsubstantiated by both the IC and the press even with the leaks.
 
... private intel firms...
Does anyone know the name of this form in question?

The private international intelligence realm can be pretty dicey.

Another thing that set off my alarm is that the company only has 80ish cables by June of the year? How many officers do they have working???
 
I don't understand what 'sides' there are to this.

Trump v. The World. Any story, any event will have people taking sides, so the emotion surrounding PE Trump guarantees two camps on any topic. He could Tweet that he prefers Count Chocula and a hue and cry would erupt because he doesn't like Lucky Charms.
 
So, you think Russia didn't hack the DNC as part of a campaign to help PE Trump with the election - as the IC contends. But, you do think this private security firm is right that PE Trump has been working closely with the Russian government for his whole campaign because they have incriminating evidence against him including video of him engaged with prostitutes and a 'golden shower' show of some sort. Does that make you support the PE more or less?

I thought during the debates when HRC trotted out her 'I call it trumped up trickle down' line it was pretty lame. Now I'm thinking that's a pretty decent meme...
I'm believing in none of this crap.

What I am believing in are the jobs that are coming back due to TRUMPENOMICS.
 
I'm believing in none of this crap.

What I am believing in are the jobs that are coming back due to TRUMPENOMICS.
I'll give him this: those 500 jobs here and there sound pretty good. But when you remember that monthly jobs report numbers regularly do six-figure moves, it's suddenly not as impressive. Like, I'll will be much more convinced after the first few BLS reports come out. It should also be noted that the economy IS currently in an upswing, so at least some job growth can be attributed to the outgoing administration for at least the next year.

Would anyone care to summarize the job publicized job savings attributed to the incoming President Elect? I remember that the Carrier A/C plant got some press, as did Ford most recently. Although the Ford CEO stated that Trump did not have any effect on their decision to remain local.

Does anyone know the name of this form in question?

The private international intelligence realm can be pretty dicey.

Another thing that set off my alarm is that the company only has 80ish cables by June of the year? How many officers do they have working???
According to WSJ, it's Orbis Business Intelligence, Ltd.

ETA: Today the House Intelligence Committee voted to allow all House members access to the Russia briefing on Friday. This really, really seems like they're laying the groundwork for an impeachment.
I'll try to find a news link.
 
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Who is Christopher Steele?

Assumption*-
He, or his company is behind the recent intelligence report on Donald J. Trump.

Fact-
Christopher Steele lives alone, with a cat.
3. Steele Left His Cat With a Neighbor & Went Underground, Fearing ‘Potentially Dangerous Backlash’ From Russia
Can we really trust this guy? He is a middle-aged British fellow who lives alone, with a cat.

Additionally, his neighbor stated-
“I’m not sure where he’s gone or how to contact him. I don’t really know much about him except to say hello. We’re all pretty secretive round here to be honest. All I know is he runs some sort of consultancy business.”
A secretive fellow drops a cat at your door, and doesn't mention how long he'll be gone or how to contact him? Does the cat have special needs? Does he even care about his cat? Why does he even have one? Has the RSPCA been contacted?


A report is only as legitimate as it's reporter, and this one smells pretty fishy (like cat food).



*When using the MDMP, assumptions are unknown entities that you have reason to assume are true- so you can continue with planning.
 
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I suppose Iraq is not a Democracy...Mattis is so frank.

Carrier Deal 800 Jobs for 700k/year in Tax Cuts.
Forbes Welcome
jobs/&refURL=https://www.google.com/&referrer=https://www.google.com/

Ford Cancels Mexican Plant for $700 million expansion in Michigan, 700 jobs will be added for vehicle manufacture, doesn't take into account the term construction jobs required for the project:
Ford canceling plans for $1.6 billion plant in Mexico, investing $700 million in Michigan expansion instead

Fiat-Chrysler $1 Billion Investment in Michigan and Ohio with 2,000 new jobs
Fiat Chrysler Announces Plans to Invest $1 Billion in the U.S.

GM is attempting to go against TrumpNomics.

IBM to hire 25,000 people, invest $1billion in training program for new hires:
IBM announces plan to hire 25,000 ahead of Trump tech meeting

Sprint had announced a 2500 person job cut, but has announced they will create 5k new jobs. One Web will hire 3k people. SoftBank will hire 50k people with a $50billion investment:
Sprint, OneWeb say 8,000 jobs announced by Trump are part of SoftBank pledge
 
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I'll give him this: those 500 jobs here and there sound pretty good. But when you remember that monthly jobs report numbers regularly do six-figure moves, it's suddenly not as impressive. Like, I'll will be much more convinced after the first few BLS reports come out. It should also be noted that the economy IS currently in an upswing, so at least some job growth can be attributed to the outgoing administration for at least the next year.

Would anyone care to summarize the job publicized job savings attributed to the incoming President Elect? I remember that the Carrier A/C plant got some press, as did Ford most recently. Although the Ford CEO stated that Trump did not have any effect on their decision to remain local.


Yeah, I have thought the same thing. I think the PE has been very adroit at positioning himself in the news cycle as being good for the economy since his election. For all his twitter and other controversies he’s ensured he’s in the news at least twice a week for some sort of economic message – especially one catered to working class voters. The things that stick out for me are him taking credit for the fact we’ve reached the highest consumer confidence rating in some time and for several manufacturing decisions companies have made – but there may be others. Of course, in those cases the consumer confidence has been climbing under President Obama for the last several years and most of the companies (besides Carrier – who was offered major tax incentives by PE Trump) have stated other reasons – or earlier decisions – as the cause of their manufacturing decisions.


Still, I think it’s a canny political move on the part of the PE and fits with his business experience. President Obama has overseen something like 75 months of straight job growth in the country during his tenure – I read one of the longest in history. It makes political sense to position yourself to take advantage of the results of that even if you had and have nothing to do with it. If you look at Trump’s business history he’s been very successful in inserting himself as a beneficiary of credit where he’s had very little impact – and distancing himself from his failures through the media. It will be interesting if those kind of ‘salesman/promoter-in-chief’ skills really translate well into the oval office.


I read a really interesting blog post that compared the PE’s actions to the myth of Batman in an interesting way. The guy talked about how the President trying to negotiate individual business deals 500 or 1000 jobs at a time was a terrible use of energy considering the size of the economy and how anything less than 150,000 job growth a MONTH was considered very poor growth. He compared it to Batman saying. Here’s this billionaire head of a multi-national company concerned with crime. Does he donate millions of dollars to hire more police, lobby on behalf of nation/state/city legal reform, pay for massive research in improving law enforcement procedures, start a charity to combat the criminal environment? No, he puts a million-dollar suit on and punches criminals in the face one at a time – AND WE THANK HIM FOR IT. I thought it was funny – but also kind of ruined Batman for me.
 
Yeah, I have thought the same thing. I think the PE has been very adroit at positioning himself in the news cycle as being good for the economy since his election. For all his twitter and other controversies he’s ensured he’s in the news at least twice a week for some sort of economic message – especially one catered to working class voters. The things that stick out for me are him taking credit for the fact we’ve reached the highest consumer confidence rating in some time and for several manufacturing decisions companies have made – but there may be others. Of course, in those cases the consumer confidence has been climbing under President Obama for the last several years and most of the companies (besides Carrier – who was offered major tax incentives by PE Trump) have stated other reasons – or earlier decisions – as the cause of their manufacturing decisions.


Still, I think it’s a canny political move on the part of the PE and fits with his business experience. President Obama has overseen something like 75 months of straight job growth in the country during his tenure – I read one of the longest in history. It makes political sense to position yourself to take advantage of the results of that even if you had and have nothing to do with it. If you look at Trump’s business history he’s been very successful in inserting himself as a beneficiary of credit where he’s had very little impact – and distancing himself from his failures through the media. It will be interesting if those kind of ‘salesman/promoter-in-chief’ skills really translate well into the oval office.


I read a really interesting blog post that compared the PE’s actions to the myth of Batman in an interesting way. The guy talked about how the President trying to negotiate individual business deals 500 or 1000 jobs at a time was a terrible use of energy considering the size of the economy and how anything less than 150,000 job growth a MONTH was considered very poor growth. He compared it to Batman saying. Here’s this billionaire head of a multi-national company concerned with crime. Does he donate millions of dollars to hire more police, lobby on behalf of nation/state/city legal reform, pay for massive research in improving law enforcement procedures, start a charity to combat the criminal environment? No, he puts a million-dollar suit on and punches criminals in the face one at a time – AND WE THANK HIM FOR IT. I thought it was funny – but also kind of ruined Batman for me.

Why have so many quit the workforce if job growth has been so strong? and are those entry level jobs or middle-class jobs?

500 here, 500 there add up; they also create additional jobs with vendors, McD's and elsewhere.
 
Still, I think it’s a canny political move on the part of the PE and fits with his business experience. President Obama has overseen something like 75 months of straight job growth in the country during his tenure – I read one of the longest in history.
That's great, but wages haven't come up at all. Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts

Wage increases haven't done shit vs. productivity since 1973.
 
Why have so many quit the workforce if job growth has been so strong? and are those entry level jobs or middle-class jobs?

500 here, 500 there add up; they also create additional jobs with vendors, McD's and elsewhere.

I think this article I posted earlier on the thread does a good job, succinctly and in one place, of summarizing a lot of the scholarship on what's been going on with job growth and it's affect on the electorate and perceptions: 2016: A Year Defined by America’s Diverging Economies

That's great, but wages haven't come up at all. Wage Stagnation in Nine Charts

Wage increases haven't done shit vs. productivity since 1973.

Real wage growth been one of the difficult parts of the 'recovery' after the 2008 financial collapse. Will be interesting to see if President Trump's policies really help with those economic trends.
 
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Real wage growth been one of the difficult parts of the 'recovery' after the 2008 financial collapse. Will be interesting to see if President Trump's policies really help with those economic trends.
Wage growth won't happen as long as you have an overabundance of workers.
That's another reason why we need to throttle immigration back.
 
Real wage growth been one of the difficult parts of the 'recovery' after the 2008 financial collapse. Will be interesting to see if President Trump's policies really help with those economic trends.

We've purged a lot of jobs since Nixon went to China that were medium skill in textile manufacturing. In El Paso, before NAFTA the place was the jean manufacturing capital of the world, the city didn't build towards higher skill jobs. Then NAFTA hit and it plunged the place into a localized depression that was only brought back to life because of BRAC when 1AD came home and garrisoned at FT Bliss. But we've purged a lot of industrial jobs, part of that was the power of the UAW when it came to wages...some cats were getting paid $70/hour to fit doors to trucks. That and the pensions were unsustainable which is why there was such a huge investment in Mexico by US Automakers. I'm not really worried about Ford's China plants, China still imports Fords from the US because there just isn't the production capacity. But at one point all of those vehicles were made here. Localized production has driven costs down since raw materials can come from China as well. That part of economics I can understand.

What I truly can't understand is producing things elsewhere at no cost savings and then the majority of your market is here.

Our job growth has not been in medium and high skilled jobs, it has been in the low-skilled sector because Raisin Cane's and Chick Fil-A are mmmmmm good. Our economy is unbalanced.

ETA 1:
Wage growth won't happen as long as you have an overabundance of workers.
That's another reason why we need to throttle immigration back.

Supposedly there are between 1million and 1.5million jobs that remain unfilled everyday in the US. The issue is that the majority of the work force doesn't meet the qualifications for the jobs, the problem is the companies looking to fill the jobs don't want to spend the time and money to train their workforce.

My brother-in-law is a Welder, he could move to North Dakota and make a hell of a lot more than he is in California. But my sister is an idiot that thinks living in CA is better...well she doesn't have the drive to hustle and find a job. She chose to quit school, she got let go from her full-time gig at Starbucks because she didn't return to work following her post-partum leave and then got let go from her hostess gig at Chili's in November...why, because she was unavailable. They were going to Vegas for festivals and shit...that's great but when you have a 1 yr old, you don't need to be wasting money in Vegas for anything.

ETA 2: I remember when Anderson Cooper wasn't an asshole: Anderson Cooper, Kellyanne Conway clash over Russia report - CNNPolitics.com

ETA 3: Waiver for Mattis was approved 24-3 in committee.
 
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