Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Marauder06]

Interestingly China has actually sanctioned Russia...

China State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities

I read that earlier and thought it was interesting. This isn't my field, but it seems to me that China is merely cutting them off from dollar borrowing, and that they are more than willing to loan in yuan. To me this is part of China's bid to take over as the world's fiat currency.

 

[SpitfireV]

I think they can't keep this up. Ukraine is already giving them a good run, even if they might lose in the very end. The pressure at home from both political leaders and the public might invite a movement against Putin eventually.

 

[Devildoc]

The PRC stance is interesting though not unusual as it’s a core belief not to interfere in a sovereign state.

Copy that, looks like they're interfering a little bit with at least limited sanctions. I think they want to be best buddies and all, but I think they're also smart enough to hedge their bets until they see what the outcome is going to be.b

 

[CQB]

Yep, an astute play.

 

[SpitfireV]

They will also want Russia's energy and Russia needs to export it if it's not going to Europe so they'll potentially have a strong position to negotiate there.

 

[ThunderHorse]

From an IO Perspective, if you want to somehow make your war a just cause. If we look at what Putin has done post 2008 regarding preparations. Brought industries back to Russia to insulate itself from sanctions. Post 2014 the government has gobbled up the independent press. Every major outlet in Russia is now State Owned and for months they've been making Ukraine into a bogeyman. In the near parts of Russia on the border of Ukraine people who are being interviewed on the street either think this is a training exercise or that the Ukrainians are Nazis and committing injustice. It seems the only place where people are able to get outside information is in the large cities where the protests are, and those are being dealt with like Trudeau dealt with truckers. /sarc

If you remove Russia from SWIFT it will have a massive impact, but for the populace in the short term they'll be insulated due to the introduction of the MIR card in 2019 for Russia only transactions: Russia's Alternative to Western Credit Cards Debuts in London

 

[RackMaster]

Looks like it could end quickly.

Ukraine ready to negotiate with Russia

 

[ThunderHorse]

How does this guy still have a platform?

John Kerry urges Putin to not let Ukraine invasion distract from combating climate change

 

[digrar]

Ummm…this is not friendly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497360661084622860

Surprisingly, I did see a pic of an old bloke crawling out of the wrecked car.

 

[Archangel27]

Ummm…this is not friendly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497360661084622860

Geez. Everything going sideways next door. Palpable sense of frustration here on everyone's part.

 

[Locksteady]

Maybe considerations centered around domestic politics? While I am not a big believer in the "lessons of history," it would not be the first time that a strong man resorted to war because of his reading of domestic affairs.

Agreed.

His popular support has gradually waned following the initial spike from the annexation of Crimea, and he is using nationalist rhetoric to gloss over increased domestic corruption and economic failures in order to try and galvanize those same affected Russians against a supposed external existential threat.

The Russian public's response to his pivot towards full-scale invasion appears to reflect the accuracy of Putin's reading of his own domestic support:

Prominent Russians join protests against Ukraine war amid 1,800 arrests

Note: Those 1800+ arrests just account for Thursday night across 50+ Russian cities.

 

[RackMaster]

This is a good YouTube channel with footage inside Ukraine.

 

[Queeg]

So at D+2 I've noticed some little things:

1. Russian logistics suck.
2. Russian night fighting capabilities are almost nil.
3. SEAD isn't a thing.
4. Anecdotal video of Russian troops saying they they thought they were on a training ex, they were just told to "go" etc. This could be just standard CAC talking points but we'll see.

An absolutely horrific situation for the people of UKR but we're seeing Russian doctrine at work, and I'm kinda underwhelmed.

*Edit* Additional thoughts: Putin cannot afford to have this turn into a COIN fight when you've got a supply chain from Poland flooding the country with NLAWs/Javs/Stingers and everything else. 10th Group must be salivating...

 

[Gunz]

Domestic unrest?

The T-72B3.

 

[Gunz]

So at D+2 I've noticed some little things:

1. Russian logistics suck.
2. Russian night fighting capabilities are almost nil.
3. SEAD isn't a thing.
4. Anecdotal video of Russian troops saying they they thought they were on a training ex, they were just told to "go" etc. This could be just standard CAC talking points but we'll see.

An absolutely horrific situation for the people of UKR but we're seeing Russian doctrine at work, and I'm kinda underwhelmed.

It hasn't turned into the juggernaut many expected.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Apparently we asked Zelensky to evacuate. He said naw, send ammo.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497428052988641281

@Gunz homie has been arresting protestors all week.

 

[RackMaster]

I think the effectiveness of Ukrainians, is also a testament to the training the we've provided in the past 8 year's.

 

[ShadowSpear]

I think the effectiveness of Ukrainians, is also a testament to the training the we've provided in the past 8 year's.

It’s also nice to see it not turn into an Iraqi/Afghan army scenario where they all just pop smoke when the rounds start flying.

 

[Queeg]

Anybody else on Twitter? The blow by blow accounts are fire!

 

[Queeg]

Junk logistical tail, no airhead at D+2. If the Ukr can hold Kyiv, they can wait out the Russkies as they shut down from fuel starvation etc.