Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Cookie_]

Russian transport aircraft shot down

Apparently the Russians tried to do some airborne insertions. Seems like it didn’t go too well for them.

Makes me wonder how the morale of the Russian troops is doing if they’re doing as poorly as stuff like this leads me to believe. Especially if that IL-76 was fully packed. That’s a lot of guys.

If these reports of Conscripts being forced to sign contracts is anywhere close to true, I imagine morale is currently through the toilet and into the sewer system.

It really seems like Putin vastly underestimated Ukrainian troops resolve and current level of training and figured he could just send in a meat wave of young soldiers to take Kyiv. It's a brutal strategy, and I feel bad for the lower enlisted/younger Russian troops if that is the case. They're truly pawns in this fight.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Starting to wonder how inaccurate all those threat temps I wrote were...

 

[Queeg]

2132 GMT. Kyiv is bracing for imminent aerial bombardment.

 

[Marauder06]

Starting to wonder how inaccurate all those threat temps I wrote were...

It doesn't matter. The decision-makers would have just ignored them, like they did our assessment of the Afghanistan pullout, or just not do anything about it, like our warnings about the Russian buildup along Ukraine's borders.

 

[Marauder06]

"I saw you on the news, loading your family onto a train, sending your wife and daughter to safety after a Russian air raid.

But you stayed.

I watched you say goodbye to your wife and little girl. Kneeling, you lovingly looked into your daughter’s eyes and then began to sob.

Overcome with emotion, you took a moment to get composed before embracing them one last time and bidding them farewell.

Then you pressed your splayed hand to the window to stay close to your wife and child for as long as possible until the train pulled away from the platform.

I could feel your desperation through the phone as you watched them go. The pain on your face was strong enough to be felt by everyone; I cried in return.

But, still, you stayed."

link

 

[DA SWO]

I am sure the Ukraine kill claims are higher than actual Russian losses, BUT; Russia isn't releasing killed/destroyed claims.
That speaks volumes.

Wish we had sent some offensive aid, and that the Ukraine's would have laid sea mines down.

 

[Marauder06]

I am sure the Ukraine kill claims are higher than actual Russian losses, BUT; Russia isn't releasing killed/destroyed claims.
That speaks volumes.

Wish we had sent some offensive aid, and that the Ukraine's would have laid sea mines down.

Didn't we send a bunch already?
U.S. shipment of 'lethal aid' reaches Ukraine amid Russia tensions

 

[Chopstick]

Not trying to make light of what the Ukrainians are enduring by any means, but this is so stinking true.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Elon Musk doing his part.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497701484003213317

 

[Dame]

Didn't we send a bunch already?
U.S. shipment of 'lethal aid' reaches Ukraine amid Russia tensions

Just in case the Ukrainian President told the U.S. State Dept "Um, noooo," when asked if he wanted help unassing the AO? You know. Like Putin expected/wanted?

 

[Queeg]

With Russia disconnected from the SWIFT network Putin is going to turn start vibrating because now they’re messing with his access to his money LOL.

 

[Marauder06]

Not sure if entirely true but if so that is a lot men and equipment gone in just a few days of fighting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497472372055576577

Over the course of 21 years in Afghanistan we lost something like 2400 KIA and 20,000+ wounded. If those casualty figures are anything close to accurate, it's going to be a very bloody war for the Russians.

 

[RackMaster]

I'm looking for anything accurate but I've been seeing rumors that 5000 Russian troops rioted at the border, refusing to cross. Not wanting to die. If the talk of forced contract signing, is true; this could be as well.

 

[AWP]

I want to believe the initial reports, however optimistic. Reality is those reports are often wrong, sometimes grossly overstated.

I’d tend to look at what cities are under Russian control as a decent barometer of who is winning. Time is not on Russia’s side though. Putin needed a quick victory and I don’t see that happening unless Ukrainian forces collapse like the Afghans.

 

[pardus]

IMHO...

China's sanctions etc... are smoke and mirrors. They want things to get messy, for the US to get embroiled in a 2 way range with the Russkies, when that happens (or things just get out of control) China is going to pounce on Taiwan. It's the perfect situation for China. To complicate things, Japan has said it will fight to defend Taiwan (the USA has no agreement to defend Taiwan), then what does Kimbo Un do? Try to take out/on Japan and ROK?

I'm not an intel guy with insider knowledge so I'm quite surprised at how badly the Russians are doing, like this is super embarrassing for Vlad, armoured columns running out of fuel, entire convoys abandoned intact, no air supremacy, a massive propaganda fail.
What happend to the unbeatable Spetsnaz, the hard as nails Airborne and Naval Infantry, the masses of advanced weapons that would send the US Military reeling, let alone Ukraine's tiny Military? Vlady you naughty boy, have you been bullshitting us!?

The Chechen commander was supposedly killed today which is awesome.
I'm not buying the 5K Russian Soldier's mutiney until I see it from a reputable non Ukrainian source, but shit, I hope it's true. All of the Russians i've seen have had zero animus, in fact a cordial relationship with the Ukrainians so far, even buying food from them.

Part of me think's Putin is brilliant and will release his evil plan, the full strength of his Military, his secret wonder weapons, but then again I remember reading some history books that mentioned that same thing about 70 years ago...

I think it might be time for Finland to take back the land it lost in the Continuation War in 1945!

 

[Devildoc]

I believe squat.shit until confirmed by 2 or more sources....

 

[Marauder06]

I want to believe the initial reports, however optimistic. Reality is those reports are often wrong, sometimes grossly overstated.

I’d tend to look at what cities are under Russian control as a decent barometer of who is winning. Time is not on Russia’s side though. Putin needed a quick victory and I don’t see that happening unless Ukrainian forces collapse like the Afghans.

I read a headline yesterday that the 74th Motorcycle Brigade had been captured.

A whole BRIGADE? Well gee, that's interesting.

I opened the article (on a site I'd never heard of before) and it was "a platoon" from the brigade.

OK, significantly smaller than a brigade, but that's still a notable number of troops.

Further in the article, a purported Ukrainian spokesman said he didn't know the number.

If it happened at all, it was probably two dudes from the scout platoon that turned left when they should have turned right and got balled up.

But yay, they captured a brigade!!

 

[Devildoc]

One piece of social media I read said a Ukraine sniper killed over "3,000" Russians. Maybe they forgot to move the decimal over a couple places....

 

[pardus]

I read a headline yesterday that the 74th Motorcycle Brigade had been captured.

A whole BRIGADE? Well gee, that's interesting.

I opened the article (on a site I'd never heard of before) and it was "a platoon" from the brigade.

OK, significantly smaller than a brigade, but that's still a notable number of troops.

Further in the article, a purported Ukrainian spokesman said he didn't know the number.

If it happened at all, it was probably two dudes from the scout platoon that turned left when they should have turned right and got balled up.

But yay, they captured a brigade!!

So what you're saying is, a Brigade was captured? Got it!

 

[Gunz]

Apparently some of the 1.5-billion in gear and weapon systems we’ve sent to Ukraine in the past—since the Russians took the Crimea—is being put to good use. The Javelins especially. Because these new pledges of arms from the US, Germany, France etc are only good if they get into the right hands before the Russians roll over them.