Covid-19

[CQB]

Anyone for Yum Cha? Based on the fear factor I reckon the service will be better than normal.

 

[DA SWO]

Here's the take home. In simple numbers, even with the last update to the JHU map, the death rate is about 2%. Another way of looking at that is 98% have been surviving. Those who have died have had co-morbid factors, or have not had access to the best healthcare resources.

Same-same with ebola. It kills people in Africa, not so much in America.

This may mutate and become a bigger issue, but right now there are other diseases that are more worrisome.

If you replaced 2019-nCoV with the word influenza, the numbers would indicate a tremendously good year. Think about that; it lends perspective.

@Ooh-Rah good catch on the map. That's what I monitor at work; it stays active on my desktop in the office.

Slight disagreement.
Your looking at total cases vs deaths.
Looking at Deaths vs Recovered the numbers (maybe) as of 30 Jan 2130 EST shows 213 deaths and 187 recovered. That would imply a higher lethality, plus I don't trust China to report an accurate death toll.

 

[Earned-not-given]

US Gov announces first quarantine since 1960s. The government will hold all people who recently returned from Wuhan at a Air Force base in California for 14 days. A level 4 travel advisory the highest level possible was issued for China, as American, Delta, United cancel all flights to mainland China.

also Russia and the UK experienced their first cases

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...a-b503-2b077c436617_story.html?outputType=amp

 

[policemedic]

Slight disagreement.
Your looking at total cases vs deaths.
Looking at Deaths vs Recovered the numbers (maybe) as of 30 Jan 2130 EST shows 213 deaths and 187 recovered. That would imply a higher lethality, plus I don't trust China to report an accurate death toll.

I'll grant you China may be skewing the numbers for various reasons.

Right now, the number of recovered is outpacing deaths. That's a good thing. But the pace at which people recover isn't so much a measure of mortality as it is other things. Additionally, while recovered seems to be a clear term, it may not be. I'm trying to track down the definition JHU is using. It could mean many things.

Currently the death rate per 100K in China secondary to 2019-nCoV is 0.015. That's using the population estimate in the CIA Fact Book. There have been no deaths in the US. All the deaths have been in Mainland China. There could be a number of reasons for that, as well. They were ground zero, so it makes sense they would be hit the hardest. We may be benefiting from the initial epidemiological work done by the Chinese.

I'm just trying to keep this in perspective and inject a wee bit of science to dispel some of the unsubstantiated rumint.

 

[Marauder06]

...seems legit! IKIS

Entire US Marine Corps Deployed To Fight Cononavirus, After Scientists Discover Alcohol Kills It


"While alcoholism does indeed have major downsides, such as kidney failure, career-ending bad decisions, and the constant risk of waking up one morning chained in matrimony to a 300-pound dependapotamus, it turns out there are some real benefits when it comes to fighting the coronavirus."

 

[“The Old Man”]

 

[SpitfireV]

The place on the left is in Shanghai. It's nowhere near Wuhan. The virus didn't originate there.

 

[GOTWA]

This is a simple case of IP theft, just like everything else China has.

 

[“The Old Man”]

Well that’s a relief. But, at this point it is still kind of weird. I know people who are tracking the progress of this bug... they are more than a bit concerned. Because we still do not have a BSL-4 transport capability. Should this thing adapt and mutate.
The virus doesn’t care where it came from. Shanghai or Wuhan, who cares. The Chinese have one of the most active offensive bio weapons programs on the planet.
The post was just to draw awareness to that.
Biological agents are seldom released where they are developed. Unless there is a breach in the containment protocol.

 

[CQB]

By the end of March it may be over.

 

[“The Old Man”]

By the end of March it may be over.

What leads you to believe. That this will burn out by the end of March? Do you have some kind of epidemiological survey. That shows the incubation period. Prior to the subject being fully symptomatic.
Because that is the most dangerous phase of a viral outbreak. When you have vectors that are carrying contagion. While also spreading the virus. All the while not realizing they are infected.

 

[CQB]

The PRC have been there before & this time have reacted better to the threat. This is your field, so what are your prognostications?

 

[“The Old Man”]

Cat is out of the bag already. Unknown number of vectors already outside of any type containment procedures.
I see this becoming very bad.
High order pandemic. That will have near catastrophic effects on populations susceptible to respiratory ailments.
Already strained medical infrastructure will be taxed to limits. That could cause a panic in affected population areas.
Once something is airborne transmissible. The rate of spread increases exponentially.
Population centers would not be my first choice of places to wait this out.
Lastly, latest check has over 20,000 known infected on mainland China.
How many unknown others could possibly be infected and on the move?
I could go on forever with the possible scenarios.
At this point I would be watching closely for any updates from the WHO.

Wash your hands

 

[Bambi]

Cat is out of the bag already. Unknown number of vectors already outside of any type containment procedures.
I see this becoming very bad.
High order pandemic. That will have near catastrophic effects on populations susceptible to respiratory ailments.
Already strained medical infrastructure will be taxed to limits. That could cause a panic in affected population areas.
Once something is airborne transmissible. The rate of spread increases exponentially.
Population centers would not be my first choice of places to wait this out.
Lastly, latest check has over 20,000 known infected on mainland China.
How many unknown others could possibly be infected and on the move?
I could go on forever with the possible scenarios.
At this point I would be watching closely for any updates from the WHO.

Wash your hands

The WHO has situation reports listed on their website for this virus, I have it bookmarked and check it every 2-3 days.

 

[Bambi]

Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports

There is the link for anyone interested.

 

[Butthead]

First outside of China death is reported in the Phillipines.
So far since Jan. 21, we've gone from 282 confirmed cases to 20,630 with 3,241 just in the past 24 hours.
Is it time to start getting worried? Should I start washing my hands or can I just continue to use hand sanitizer?

 

[Kaldak]

Wash with vodka. Alcohol kills it.

 

[policemedic]

First outside of China death is reported in the Phillipines.
So far since Jan. 21, we've gone from 282 confirmed cases to 20,630 with 3,241 just in the past 24 hours.
Is it time to start getting worried? Should I start washing my hands or can I just continue to use hand sanitizer?

Public health 101--wash your hands. Frequently. With soap (but not antibacterial soap). When you think you're done, continue washing your hands. Use hand sanitizers when soap and water are not available.

This PSA applies regardless of 2019-nCoV.

 

[SaintKP]

This PSA applies regardless of 2019-nCoV.

People are filthy. Want proof? Just listen for how many people wash their hands when they think no ones looking.

 

[Board and Seize]

People are filthy. Want proof? Just listen for how many people wash their hands when they think no ones looking.

Says the guy hiding in public bathrooms (rest stops?) so he can "listen" to everyone else in there...