Syria Gas Attack- What Now?

Speaking in generalized terms, I think something that's overlooked in foreign policy is how to do something. I think more and more our FP is like the underpants gnomes. We have a starting point and an end state, but no plan on how to arrive there. We become caught up in the "what" and not the "how." Or we manage to do that and ignore the second, third, n-order effects of our actions. Whenever a person or unit or country does something, that action causes ripples like a rock hitting water. I think that sometimes our FP figures out how to get the rock to the pond, and even launch it, but then we brush off or ignore the ripples...often to our detriment.

When we talk about intervening, it needs more than a blanket mission statement. It needs defined goals and a defined process for arriving at them, but it also needs to consider those n-order effects.
 
Article related to this discussion:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/o...eign-policy-by-whisper-and-nudge.html?hp&_r=0

"Post-cold-war foreign policy today is largely about “affecting the internal composition and governance of states,” added Mandelbaum, many of which in the Middle East are failing and threaten us more by their collapse into ungoverned regions — not by their strength or ability to project power.

But what we’ve learned in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Egypt and Syria is that it is very hard to change another country’s internal behavior — especially at a cost and in a time frame that the American public will tolerate — because it requires changing a country’s political culture and getting age-old adversaries to reconcile.

The primary foreign policy tools that served us so well in the cold war, said Mandelbaum, “guns, money, and rhetoric — simply don’t work for these new tasks. It is like trying to open a can with a sponge.”

To help another country change internally requires a mix of refereeing, policing, coaching, incentivizing, arm-twisting and modeling — but even all of that cannot accomplish the task and make a country’s transformation self-sustaining, unless the people themselves want to take charge of the process.

In Iraq, George W. Bush removed Saddam Hussein, who had been governing that country vertically, from the top-down, with an iron fist. Bush tried to create the conditions through which Iraqis could govern themselves horizontally, by having the different communities write their own social contract on how to live together. It worked, albeit imperfectly, as long as U.S. troops were there to referee. But once we left, no coterie of Iraqi leaders emerged to assume ownership of that process in an inclusive manner and thereby make it self-sustaining."

And here's the money shot, almost exactly what I was talking about over the past couple of days:

Some liberals want to “do something” in places like Libya and Syria; they just don’t want to do what is necessary, which would be a long-term occupation to remake the culture and politics of both places.

And conservative hawks who want to intervene just don’t understand how hard it is to remake the culture and politics in such places, where freedom, equality and justice for all are not universal priorities, because some people want to be “free” to be more Islamist or more sectarian.
 
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Wasn't the UN and it's mighty force of Peacekeepers created for shitstorms like this?

I know that's a friggin' joke in reality but it does piss me off more than a little.. Kinda' hard to walk tall and not carry any stick at all...

People can forget about the UN doing anything. They can't even stop Syrian rebels from kidnapping UN peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, nevermind trying to deal with the Syrian situation itself.

There will be no military intervention from the West, if the US isn't leading it, simple as. No other country can wage war on the scale that the US can. So while other countries who cried about Iraq being a "bad" war, yet advocate action in Syria(I'm looking at you France)... The uncomfortable truth for them, is that they can't do anything without the US.

Do I think the US,coming off the back of over a decade of war, should step in and give Assad the good news? Fuck no, it's quite frankly not worth the cost, in both human and monetary terms, to force him out of power. In the case of Syria and Assad, the West is far better off leaving him in power, with what the rebels have become and the groups backing them, it really is a case of better the devil you know with Assad.
 
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I stand by what I said early on, we need to do something.........O_o

What does our nation stand to gain from doing "something"? What "something" should we do?

Several of us have enumerated reasons to keep our boys out of it. If you have better reasons for why we should see our guys coming home in flag draped coffins I am sure we would love to hear them...

Crip
 
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Drudge says a SLCM attack is imminent, as soon as the British TF links up with the Americans.
Cool, the do sometime crowd gets it's wish (Clinton style), and we keep ground troops home.

Sponge, Love ya like a Brother; but I remember Bosnia, and don't see any reason to get involved in another 10 year adventure.
 
Drudge says a SLCM attack is imminent
Not even worth the cost of a CM.. I'm not sticking up for Clinton here.. (That has and will never happen) but when he finally did zip up his fly at least the target he was lobbing them at was worth every penny..

This oh shit now I have to do something because I ran my mouth rhetoric makes me sick.
 
I am against any action. I can't bear the thoughts of our men and women going into another fucking mess. Really I've tried. We have to stop running into every country with a battle going on.
 
The UN gets so much respect. :rolleyes:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/aug/26/un-syria-team-says-vehicle-shot-snipers/

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — A U.N. spokesman says a vehicle belonging to a team investigating the Syrian regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons has been “deliberately shot at multiple times” by unidentified snipers in Damascus.

Martin Nesirky, who is spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, says the Monday shooting occurred in the buffer zone area between rebel- and government-controlled territory.

He says the team will return to the area after replacing the vehicle.

The team plans to visit the site in the suburbs of Damascus where an alleged chemical weapon attack occurred last week, reportedly killing hundreds.
 
My answer to the new title of this thread.... Train harder with CBR gear or stay the fuck away from the areas where it is most likely those agents will be used.

More gas mask PT... yay!!!

In all seriousness though I wonder how much more it would have to escalate to the point where the west would have to actually intervene with this whole cluster fuck.
 
Okay after doing some reading up on Syria, Assad, politics, economics, corruption, and how their civil-war came to be... I'm going to stick with my original opinion "that Assad needs to go" that we need "positive control on (quite a few) weapons" and that we should do so through an "air strike" and possibly some special/covert operations.

This picking the better of two evils argument doesn't hold water IMHO. Assad and his father have been ruling Syria like Saddam (torture, political prisoners, secret police, don't say something bad about the Syrian gov or you won't wake up tomorrow, etc). Syria has been ruled by a "state of emergency" since the 1960s. The Assad family has stolen over $1.5 billion from the Syrian people, and stashed it around the world.

He is anti Israel and Western nations, he has basically murdered and stolen to keep in power.

The civil-war started over the Syrian people wanting democratic elections and basically a government ruled by who the people saw fit to elect. For that protesters were outright murdered by government troops, and continue to be killed to the sum of 100,000 since 2011.

Some tidbits:

Syria's only major economic standing is their oil, by all estimation they will have to start importing oil by 2014.

Their population is projected to double in 35 years.

Assad family has ruled Syria with an Iron fist since the 1960s under a state of emergency (I.e. standard ba'ath party rules).

Syria maintains a large chemical weapon stock pile, and is believed to have possibly received chemical weapons from Iraq at the beginning of OIF.
Its also believed that Assad as a proxi for Iraq paid bribes to French officials to stay out of OIF and vote against invasion through the UN.

I can't link b/c I'm on my phone, but a lot of the info came from wekipidia and google-fu.

So why should we get involved:

Syria is going to become unstable regardless of our efforts, however we have the ability to possibly destroy some of these weapons and hopefully get some control measures on them. If we attack Assad's government by air strike, we may be able to bring him to the table for an all or nothing disarmerment of all chemical weapons. Also work a deal where he leaves power under a true free election and takes his $1.5 billion he stole and disappear.

I think if we do not act, we will see possibly 2 or 3 times the deaths we have already. I believe large quantities of chemical weapons will get into the hand of the wrong people and I believe that region will come totally unglued. Having major affects of Turkey and inevitably Israel.

I also don't like the continued growth of Iranian influance, and I feel if we allow Iran to have influence in a failed state Syria, we are going to see an arms race across the ME and further economical and political follow on effects globally.

So to be clear, no I do not think we should commit troops or peace keepers. But do think we should use air strikes to either take out Assad or bring him to the table. I think we should get possitive control of the weapons and we should attempt to support (possibly through a proxi) one of the Rebel groups who could bring leadership when the economic and political collapse happens.
 
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