"Have to"?
Like we intervened in Dafur etc...?
'Having to' in terms of us being directly affected (not quite sure what that would be), not being morally obligated to.
Syria Gas Attack- What Now?
- Thread starter goon175
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'Having to' in terms of us being directly affected (not quite sure what that would be), not being morally obligated to.
pardus
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I cant immediately think of any scenario that would directly affect us with Syria.
Um....they quit sending pita makers to the falafel stands in NYC, leaving thousands of hungry office workers? Only reason I can think of...
pardus
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I would go to war for gyros.
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I think we should hit Assad now, cripple his ability to fight off the Rebels and then offer him a deal (along with whatever rebel group we find in our best interest).
The deal being he allows for a total disarm of the chemical capability (let them keep conventional weapons) and and a peace period for a free election, Assad would not be allowed to run for office and would do the exile thing.
The deal being he allows for a total disarm of the chemical capability (let them keep conventional weapons) and and a peace period for a free election, Assad would not be allowed to run for office and would do the exile thing.
If you guys intervene there is the very high possibility that someone like the Muslim Brotherhood will come in and fill the power vacuum. If Assad stays in power and he isn't covertly supporting terrorists now you can bet he will be after you start blowing the place up. Shock and awe (and that's what it will be because everyone likes to watch the Tomahawks and fast movers doing the bizz on the evening news as opposed to a bunch of bearded guys sitting around drinking chai and winning hearts and minds) does not win wars, it wins battles. You "covertly" intervened in Afghanistan a long time ago and that didn't turn out too well in the resulting upheaval.
Marauder nailed it, sometimes its better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
Marauder nailed it, sometimes its better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
pardus
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It probably aided in the fall of the USSR but that in turn also spun the whole world into turmoil.
Part of me thinks we should have just let the Russians have Afghanistan and let them deal with the resulting headache.
Scotth
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A great post IMHO and your certainly in the right position Sir.
Plus your post distracted me long enough I didn't feel compelled to respond the SpongeBob's post. Thanks You
My personal opinion is that we don't need to get involved in Syria right now. I've had a chance to look over some of the pictures (not all) from the CW attacks as part of an informal discussion amongst other EOD types (have a look at some of them), and I do not expect my word to be held as the end-all regarding this, but blaming the Assad regime strikes me as a little hinky. The suspected CW warheads are a little bit sloppy to be something purchased by the Syrian government, at least how I see it. It looks rather similar to the IRAM munition that was the bane of our existence in 2008-09. I doubt it was made in someplace as primitive as hajji's garage, but it doesn't look like something that rolled from an assembly line. Also, the stenciling is a little bit sloppy. If it were factory made, the stencils would be in line. What I saw was a bit crooked, like it was hand-jammed. Had the round rolled off the assembly line like that, some QC guy somewhere would be drawing unemployment.
I remember seeing quite a few Iranian munitions of the 81mm persuasion during my extended vacations. They tried to get the colors, markings, nomenclature, and such correct so that it would appear to be US munitions. However, there was always a tell so that we could tell it was an Iranian knock-off of American infantry outreach. It wouldn't surprise me if someone tried to get something together to make it look like it was an Assad-owned chemical munition. I know, I know, false flag allegations usually come with a complimentary tin-foil hat fitting. But this doesn't strike me as being on the up and up, and DAMNED SURE not a good reason to flex what little muscle we have left to get out one of the few non-fundamentalist leaders left over there.
I remember seeing quite a few Iranian munitions of the 81mm persuasion during my extended vacations. They tried to get the colors, markings, nomenclature, and such correct so that it would appear to be US munitions. However, there was always a tell so that we could tell it was an Iranian knock-off of American infantry outreach. It wouldn't surprise me if someone tried to get something together to make it look like it was an Assad-owned chemical munition. I know, I know, false flag allegations usually come with a complimentary tin-foil hat fitting. But this doesn't strike me as being on the up and up, and DAMNED SURE not a good reason to flex what little muscle we have left to get out one of the few non-fundamentalist leaders left over there.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
I've been saying it for awhile. But what grand strategic interest is Syria? There's literally none, based on what I've learned, if we were to support anyone it should have been Assad. We liked the status quo antebellum, he didn't screw with Israel and we were good.
And now if he loses the people in charge will be akin to the Taliban. By supporting the rebels already we've helped to destabilize the region and affect our interests (i.e. Israel).
And now if he loses the people in charge will be akin to the Taliban. By supporting the rebels already we've helped to destabilize the region and affect our interests (i.e. Israel).
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This. Its all well and good to say that we will force his hand and he will go into exile, free elections for all, etc. but a) to actually implement that COA is going to require a significant investment to include people on the ground for monitoring and enforcement (even if its the Useless Nations) if that is actually going to work and b) even if we go into that fully invested, I don't see us maintaining full control of the situation as we're trying to negotiate and monitor the progress of some deal with Al-Asaad. Both Iran and Russia have free tickets to this dance while we're paying full price and they (along with other actors, like the MB) are not going to sit idly by while they United States executes its Plan For Syria at will...
Tl:dr... if we try to assert our will, it will end up being costly and we will likely not retain the necessary level of control to exact the outcome we desire.
Brill
SOF Support
Exact same scenario that played out in Afghanistan in the late 70's & 80's is occurring NOW in Syria except the fighters are already anti-West, have support network, and are very experienced.
Are we talking about the rebels that started the counsel of whatever-its-called that became an active member of the Arab League? The one that pulled Syrian soldiers and Officers over to the "free Syria" cause?
Or are we talking about the Mujahadeen fighters who have flocked to Sryia?
There actually several groups operating under the FSA banner, but have little if anything to do with the original revolution/protests.
The FSA asked for weapons and aid, when they didn't get it from the UN (the US) that is when they started accepting money and weapons from who ever would give it. This is where the AQ involvement comes into play. The Syrians rebels are taking weapons and funding from AQ, however I read and watched several reports that the Syrians don't care about AQ or any other group. That their only objective is to free Syria from the Assad regime and have free elections.
I don't think you can paint the FSA with a broad stroke...
Or are we talking about the Mujahadeen fighters who have flocked to Sryia?
There actually several groups operating under the FSA banner, but have little if anything to do with the original revolution/protests.
The FSA asked for weapons and aid, when they didn't get it from the UN (the US) that is when they started accepting money and weapons from who ever would give it. This is where the AQ involvement comes into play. The Syrians rebels are taking weapons and funding from AQ, however I read and watched several reports that the Syrians don't care about AQ or any other group. That their only objective is to free Syria from the Assad regime and have free elections.
I don't think you can paint the FSA with a broad stroke...
No, one can't paint the FSA with a broad stroke. You're correct about that. That being said, many of the fundamentalist Islamist outfits are exponentially better at organizing the indigenous populations to their benefit. At the risk of sounding cliché, the old adage "The enemy of the enemy is my friend" is likely at play. Assuming Assad is removed from power, the lesser rebel factions will most likely fall to the fundamentalists, and Syria will become the latest theocracy in the Middle East. That's not good news for the Alawites, Christians, Druz, or any members of the opposing sect with relation to whichever organization ascends to power. What does that have to do with us? Refugees that will need a place to go, that's what. And I'm willing to lay my reproductive organs that they won't be granted entry to the United States.
Egypt's resistance to the Muslim Brotherhood is the exception to the rule. I do not put much faith in the rest of the Arab world just because a nation whose population was once a great civilization in its own right has risen up and called a spade a spade.
Egypt's resistance to the Muslim Brotherhood is the exception to the rule. I do not put much faith in the rest of the Arab world just because a nation whose population was once a great civilization in its own right has risen up and called a spade a spade.
Yeah, let's bomb the government to punish them for allowing the Rebels to kill people.
We're trying to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Stay out. We won't of course. We'll be involved. just giving my opinion.
Syria is about Iran and the reach of US vs Russian power in the broader region in a post-Assad Syria. If he goes down and is replaced by a leader less hostile to the interests of the United States (or at least more pliable rather than just overtly in the tank for Putin), it's a strategic win for the US and the West. .. hence Russian money and influence (trying to prevent the expansion of even more US power). Syria toppling is also a major blow to Iranian regional security and erodes their position and ability to retain a defiant stance towards the international community. This is a strategic struggle about much more than FSA or the gathering, org and funding of various rebel groups.
Syria is about Iran and the reach of US vs Russian power in the broader region in a post-Assad Syria. If he goes down and is replaced by a leader less hostile to the interests of the United States (or at least more pliable rather than just overtly in the tank for Putin), it's a strategic win for the US and the West. .. hence Russian money and influence (trying to prevent the expansion of even more US power). Syria toppling is also a major blow to Iranian regional security and erodes their position and ability to retain a defiant stance towards the international community. This is a strategic struggle about much more than FSA or the gathering, org and funding of various rebel groups.
Which Arab Nation is pressing for us to intervene?
Is Israel asking us to SLCM Syria?
Who gains (other then the Muslim Brotherhood) from Assad losing?
Is Israel asking us to SLCM Syria?
Who gains (other then the Muslim Brotherhood) from Assad losing?
We definitely gain if Assads successor is friendly to the United States.
I say stay out not bc it isn't a worthy endeavor but rather bc the top end of State and policy makers are terrible at defining precisely end of campaign parameters and metrics.
I say stay out not bc it isn't a worthy endeavor but rather bc the top end of State and policy makers are terrible at defining precisely end of campaign parameters and metrics.
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