Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Blizzard]

The control of nuclear weapons and the influence of other nations, including Western, is going to be very critical. I don't imagine a nuclear powered Wagner group will be acceptable, nor should it.

Prigozhin is a monster; much worse than Putin. He's been positioning himself for months. He's saying the right things to get the support he needs to continue his push - easy to do with all of Putin's missteps, beginning with the invasion itself - but it brings with it, a whole new set of problems.

 

[RackMaster]

Looks like this is about to spread into Belarus. Opposition leaders are appealing to their people and military to pull support from Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672607662314233856

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672601122467467276

 

[Raptor]

Well…I suppose that's the danger of using mercenaries. They're loyal to the dollar and not the country.

With my best letterkenny voice: to be fair, I'd be pretty pissed if my own country was launching missiles at me, too, among other things. If what they claim is even true, that is.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Honestly this be wild. I knew Wagner had a lot of firepower, but I didn't know it was like this. But I guess it makes sense when you look at the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces and there is almost no unity of Command.

The Rosgovardiya seems to the be the better trained and equipped troops but are the "National Guard" which is separate from the Army. But the VDV are also separate from the Army and it gets incredibly confusing to me...so then you go...who is in command of who? Reminds me of when the Wermacht was in command of an AO but had Waffen SS operating in their AO but not under their command.

And you could even look at like how SMUs ran all over the AO in Afghanistan without knowledge of the local combatant commander.

Unity of Command is a principle of war that we often fuck up ourselves!

 

[Blizzard]

With my best letterkenny voice: to be fair, I'd be pretty pissed if my own country was launching missiles at me, too, among other things. If what they claim is even true, that is.

I'm not convinced that ever happened. It looks like a false flag or flat out lie; it looks staged. It was merely used as an excuse. Prigozhin has been planning this move for quite a while.

 

[Stukiwi]

Looks like Putin is on a flight to Saint Petersburg

 

[Stukiwi]

Wagner shot down an AN24 twin engine turboprop

 

[Stukiwi]

Wagner Forces Took Control of Military Intelligence Agency Office in Rostov Russia​

 

[Blizzard]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672578245772947456

 

[Raptor]

I'm not convinced that ever happened. It looks like a false flag or flat out lie; it looks staged. It was merely used as an excuse. Prigozhin has been planning this move for quite a while.

I'm not convinced, either. There's been so much misinformation coming from that country about this whole war that I wouldn't be surprised at anything being fake at this point.

 

[Blizzard]

One reaction I haven't seen yet, and very interested in seeing, is that of Xi and the CCP. They must be monitoring very closely, especially given Xi's commitment to his "best friend", Putin - even if it's really just a friendship of convenience for Xi.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Honestly not sure it's a coup against Putin as much as it is Shoigu which is very convenient. But Putin has chastized Shoigu recently as well.

 

[Blizzard]

Honestly not sure it's a coup against Putin as much as it is Shoigu which is very convenient. But Putin has chastized Shoigu recently as well.

Well...



Also, looks like it may be getting ready to go down in Rostov:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672589413694537730

 

[Gordus]

The control of nuclear weapons ...

That is what concerns me most.

 

[Stukiwi]

How many made it into Belarus? Who has the keys?

 

[Blizzard]

How many made it into Belarus? Who has the keys?

They're not in any better shape:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672610013951475712

Shit is getting real, pretty quickly.

 

[Box]

The billionaires pulling the strings WANT things to get real.
The more realer the better.
Real war = Real Profits

There is no profit in peace. If you want to get a feel for when the next shoe is really going to drop, just watch where our vortuous congressional leaders are spending their investment dollars. As soon as one of theY start dumping stocks in vaccines and infrastructure and start pouring int long-range rocket tech - hold on to your ass because shit will be getting real soon after - they don't vote on shit until they have adjusted their investments to profit from it.

Or at least that is what I heard from some cynical apocalyptic conspiracy nut that lives under the bridge near my house.

 

[RackMaster]

Fighting in Rostov between Wagner and Chechen fighters has begun.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672622521256927232

 

[AWP]

Rostov-on-Don isn't close to the Ukraine. This will be fun to watch.

 

[Gunz]

They're not in any better shape:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672610013951475712

Shit is getting real, pretty quickly.

This ends well for Putin only if he can keep his massive army loyal. But if units are already defecting to Prigozhin, more may follow. Given the miserable conditions, high casualty rate and mismanagement of the Ukraine war, there may be many in the regular ranks who might be inclined to join Prigozhin’s mutiny.

It’s not a coup. Not yet anyway. And not a revolt. The average Russian civilian is likely to be perplexed by the whole thing rather than ready to take to the street.

But I say, bring on the chaos.