This post isn't for or against Russia's invasion because I'm playing Devils Advocate, but let's say the Ukraine falls in 2022. What's next? What's the West do? Russia? Hunter Biden? Whateverthefuck? Putin tours Kiev like a failed Austrian painter toured the Eiffel Tower. What happens next?
Well, that's the magic $64 million-dollar question, isn't it? Putin clearly could give two fucks about casualties, material losses or the West's sanctions; his only concern is victory. The UN is as toothless as the League of Nations ever was, so utterly worthless as to beg pity. NATO political leadership is--oh, so slowly--pulling its collective head out of its ass, but it's getting really, really late in the game here. And, even more critically, the US populace is becoming more and more isolationist. We're allowing our domestic issues--which are really, really bad--to cloud out why it's critical we stay engaged on the international stage. It's almost as it it's the 1930s again, and we're watching the Spanish Civil War.
Putin will, of course, reconstitute his military. I think what comes out of that reconstitution will be a solid threat, more so than anything NATO has had to face since 1985. Concurrently, he'll spend a little time shoring up relations with the friendlier former Soviet states, his powerbase in Belarus, and generally tidying up the place. The sanctions, over the next few years, will gradually taper off, because "global trade keeps the peace!" Encouraged by his victories, he'll make a lot of noise about the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary and Romania.
The only real outlier I see here is NATO. A solid, credible response to Russia would be critical to blunting Putin's plan. Since that response won't be coming from the US (because we're gonna be busy navel gazing election 2024), I'd say a follow-up question would be, "What's NATO going to do?"