Ukraine - Russia Conflict

AWP said:
This post isn't for or against Russia's invasion because I'm playing Devils Advocate, but let's say the Ukraine falls in 2024? What's next? What's the West do? Russia? Hunter Biden? Whateverthefuck? Putin tours Kiev like a failed Austrian painter toured the Eiffel Tower. What happens next?
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We hit Russia with a lot of rhetoric, a few more meaningless sanctions and diddly squat else. Ukraine is way down the list of our trading partners. There's nothing essential there for the health of our economy. Biden and the Democrats will howl and moan and blame the Republicans for the fall of the brave and stalwart Ukrainians...but they don't have the stones to do anything else. Neither does NATO, but it'll hold some obligatory exercise in the Baltic and then return to base.

If Trump is elected (and not in Leavenworth), he won't do shit either because war is bad for business.

Putin will be elected for life and he'll carry on being the West's Baba Yaga.

As far as our international credibility is concerned, we don't have any. We haven't really had a victory since Stormin' Norman...and there's some doubt about the validity of that term as applied to the Persian Gulf because the place is a perennial dumpster fire.

Not to mention with have a doddering old fool for a President who's the laughing stock of the world.
 
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talonlm said:
Putin will, of course, reconstitute his military. I think what comes out of that reconstitution will be a solid threat, more so than anything NATO has had to face since 1985. Concurrently, he'll spend a little time shoring up relations with the friendlier former Soviet states, his powerbase in Belarus, and generally tidying up the place. The sanctions, over the next few years, will gradually taper off, because "global trade keeps the peace!" Encouraged by his victories, he'll make a lot of noise about the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary and Romania.
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That's going to take him time and money. His professional military is a skeleton of its former self so it'll take time to replace and have people in place long enough to grow some experience. Until that happens they'll be Soviet army/navy/AF 2.0.
 
Gunz said:
We hit Russia with a lot of rhetoric, a few more meaningless sanctions and diddly squat else. Ukraine is way down the list of our trading partners. There's nothing essential there for the health of our economy. Biden and the Democrats will howl and moan and blame the Republicans for the fall of the brave and stalwart Ukrainians...but they don't have the stones to do anything else. Neither does NATO, but it'll hold some obligatory exercise in the Baltic and then return to base.

If Trump is elected (and not in Leavenworth), he won't do shit either because war is bad for business.

Putin will be elected for life and he'll carry on being the West's Baba Yaga.

As far as our international credibility is concerned, we don't have any. We haven't really had a victory since Stormin' Norman...and there's some doubt about the validity of that term as applied to the Persian Gulf because the place is a perennial dumpster fire.
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Well, maybe because so much Ukrainian farmland is untillable the government will stop paying farmers to not grow grain and we can respond to the grain shortage and stop losing farm land to subdivision creep and Bill Gates Climate Change seizure purchases. Because farmers will make more money growing grain instead of not growing grain...
 
Devildoc said:
That's going to take him time and money. His professional military is a skeleton of its former self so it'll take time to replace and have people in place long enough to grow some experience. Until that happens they'll be Soviet army/navy/AF 2.0.
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How much time does Putin have? Took Russian six-ish years to try again after Georgia. Did they ever stop fighting in Chechnya? And eight years after their initial foray into Crimea/Ukraine.

I'd say maybe two years after the shooting stops, maximum, before the sanctions pretty much go away. Capitalism, sadly, does have its faults.

Then two more--total of four years--until the Russians get enough of good enough to be capable of causing problems for NATO. The Russians just created a generation of hard-bitten soldiers who are learning how to fight and survive in a relatively modern conflict, so there's your instructor cadre and SNCOs needed to fight effectively. Equpment will take more time than people, but that's only because it takes time to make it. Much of what they have is 'good enough' and what isn't they'll use anyway, if only to suck up more enemy resources. Their engineering has always been pretty good--a few bolt-ons and the T-80s are no less battle-effective than they were forty years ago against modern MBTs with trained crews. Worse for us but better for them, there's still more than enough armor laying around to wash out, fix up and push right back into the fight. So long as they can outlast your ammunition supply, they win.

Putin could not begin to care less about the impacts on their people. Worse, the population clearly doesn't care enough about the losses to change things. I doubt finding enough manpower, money or equipment will be an issue.

So, in my mind at any rate, ready in less than five years from 'shooting over' in Ukraine to try again.

This only ends well for Ukraine--or the West--if someone pops Putin. That guy's gotta go.
 
talonlm said:
How much time does Putin have? Took Russian six-ish years to try again after Georgia. Did they ever stop fighting in Chechnya? And eight years after their initial foray into Crimea/Ukraine.

I'd say maybe two years after the shooting stops, maximum, before the sanctions pretty much go away. Capitalism, sadly, does have its faults.

Then two more--total of four years--until the Russians get enough of good enough to be capable of causing problems for NATO. The Russians just created a generation of hard-bitten soldiers who are learning how to fight and survive in a relatively modern conflict, so there's your instructor cadre and SNCOs needed to fight effectively. Equpment will take more time than people, but that's only because it takes time to make it. Much of what they have is 'good enough' and what isn't they'll use anyway, if only to suck up more enemy resources. Their engineering has always been pretty good--a few bolt-ons and the T-80s are no less battle-effective than they were forty years ago against modern MBTs with trained crews. Worse for us but better for them, there's still more than enough armor laying around to wash out, fix up and push right back into the fight. So long as they can outlast your ammunition supply, they win.

Putin could not begin to care less about the impacts on their people. Worse, the population clearly doesn't care enough about the losses to change things. I doubt finding enough manpower, money or equipment will be an issue.

So, in my mind at any rate, ready in less than five years from 'shooting over' in Ukraine to try again.

This only ends well for Ukraine--or the West--if someone pops Putin. That guy's gotta go.
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I'm not talking about Ukraine, or Putin specifically. All I'm looking at is money and numbers in time. To get the military to the pre-Ukraine numbers and level, it'll just take time. And because so many of the people in the military are new because they lost all their middle management, they have no NCO core or junior officer rank so to speak.

Putin will do what he does with his military regardless of what it is comprised of.
 
Can't really know ofc, but Putin's removal would probably mean very little, if the old power structures and actors remained in place. Its kind of also wishful thinking that Internal strife in Russia ( which is very unpredictable ) could potentially buy Ukraine some relief, time and put them in a favourable position. Problem is, I just don't see any of it happening on a decisive enough scale. At most military coups, that deposed one delusional autocrat for another. Possibly someone who was even less willing to compromise. Even the probability of that, is rather low imo. Why get rid of the feeding hand ? There are also no signs that the people themselves want a change. The majority are just not bothered enough or simply too afraid to speak up in a police state that rivals the early Soviet Union at this point.
Just my 0,02 Cents.
 
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Gordus said:
Can't really know ofc, but Putin's removal would probably mean very little, if the old power structures and actors remained in place. Its kind of also wishful thinking that Internal strife in Russia ( which is very unpredictable ) could potentially buy Ukraine some relief, time and put them in a favourable position. Problem is, I just don't see any of it happening on a decisive enough scale. At most military coups, that deposed one delusional autocrat for another. Possibly someone who was even less willing to compromise. Even the probability of that, is rather low imo. Why get rid of the feeding hand ? There are also no signs that the people themselves want a change. The majority are just not bothered enough or simply too afraid to speak up in a police state that rivals the early Soviet Union at this point.
Just my 0,02 Cents.
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Agreed. There are a number of cats in the wings if Putin buys the farm. Putin's PM Mishustin would take over immediately...but the one to watch would be Patrushev, former KGB, head of the Security Council. He's fanatically anti-US and probably has the backing of hard-liners.

And with Putin's detractors falling out of hospital windows, blowing up in aircraft disasters and dying in Siberia of "Sudden Death Syndrome", there's not a lot of dissension in the ranks to even contemplate a coup. Putin has things wired up pretty tight.
 
Gunz said:
BTW, CNN is already blaming “Trump Republicans” with the impending fall of Ukraine
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And Trump Republicans blame Biden Democrats for the invasion of America. They can't walk and chew gum. Or is there no money in the southern border...

Gunz said:
I wonder what would make the Democrats happy?
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It's not just Dems, it's a uniparty.
 
Blizzard said:
They've lost two A-50's. This is the 2nd lost in about a month.
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Yep. That puts them with about 7 or 8 a/c and we all know less than that are capable of flying on any given day. Also, it isn't like you can just toss a conscript inside of one, it takes time to create the aircrews.

Russia reportedly loses second A-50 radar jet

The link has a video from Twitter. The plane is kicking out flares, but not maneuvering. When the missile strikes the plane breaks into two flaming pieces.
 
AWP said:
Yep. That puts them with about 7 or 8 a/c and we all know less than that are capable of flying on any given day. Also, it isn't like you can just toss a conscript inside of one, it takes time to create the aircrews.

Russia reportedly loses second A-50 radar jet

The link has a video from Twitter. The plane is kicking out flares, but not maneuvering. When the missile strikes the plane breaks into two flaming pieces.
Click to expand...
They also had a 3rd that was hit by a drone on the airfield maybe a year or so ago, IIRC.

What's more, they also lost an IL-22, a C2 aircraft, last month when they lost the A-50.

Like you alluded to, those losses have to hurt a bit.
 
AWP said:
Yep. That puts them with about 7 or 8 a/c and we all know less than that are capable of flying on any given day. Also, it isn't like you can just toss a conscript inside of one, it takes time to create the aircrews.

Russia reportedly loses second A-50 radar jet

The link has a video from Twitter. The plane is kicking out flares, but not maneuvering. When the missile strikes the plane breaks into two flaming pieces.
Click to expand...

15 trained aircrew, poof.
 
Macron dropped a bomb and didn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine. So now all the other NATO countries are scrambling to distance themselves from that remark. And yet sending troops (and air power) is probably the only way Ukraine survives. And maybe not even then.
 

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