Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[RackMaster]

I mean no disrespect, but there is a huge difference to me when someone had that very vision, intent in advance, planned and executed it, versus the victim talking out of emotions due to being violated and wishing the perpetrator bad things. So I may end up being a hypocrite for that, but I feel the Ukrainians here without supporting such radical suggestions, while having no sympathy for the aggressor narrative whatsoever ( Obv not just because of that. There's a whole stack of reasons I've already mentioned in this thread ). I've also heard plenty times from Westerners that Russia should cease to exist as an entity and vice versa. Messed up thing to suggest for sure. What always beats lunatic yapping though, is to actually put those words into practice. What Russia has been actively trying all along and imo they def have no intention to stop with Ukraine. I principally don't support those super drastic ideas from either side. Its just asking for even more instability. The human tragedy aside.

This is not a recent or a short war. I'm not for or against Russia or Ukraine, both sides have done some well planned and seriously fucked up shit. If Russia had plans to expand, which would automatically instigate WW3 with NATO; we'd already be a smoldering pile.

But it's Ukraine that's erasing the existence of Russian speaking Ukrainian's and has been since the US instigated a coup multiple times but was finally successful in 2014. Zelensky has done things in his own country just as bad as Putin. Arresting the press and his opposition. Refusing to hold elections. Making it illegal to even talk about peace negotiations.

 

[Gordus]

This is not a recent or a short war. I'm not for or against Russia or Ukraine, both sides have done some well planned and seriously fucked up shit. If Russia had plans to expand, which would automatically instigate WW3 with NATO; we'd already be a smoldering pile.

But it's Ukraine that's erasing the existence of Russian speaking Ukrainian's and has been since the US instigated a coup multiple times but was finally successful in 2014. Zelensky has done things in his own country just as bad as Putin. Arresting the press and his opposition. Refusing to hold elections. Making it illegal to even talk about peace negotiations.

They don't just have plans right, they are literally expanding as we speak. Did Kyiv pre-2014 and pre-2022 plan to and invade Russia to annex them in a war of aggression ? Idk what they had planned, but if it was conquest, Moscow certainly beat them to it and I highly doubt it will stop with Ukraine. Call me a pessimist, but at this point I even doubt Article 5 would be invoked if the Baltics were assailed.
I also don't really buy the whole "4d chess, got baited by the West" angle for aforementioned reasons. I think its 95% fantasy.

I don't single the Russians out in regards to crimes and war crimes. But the War in Donbas was instigated by them and their actors to begin with. Something, people like Girkin have admitted. The two sides fought and lost thousands of fighters. Several thousand civilians were killed as well. Reportedly, more on the occupied territories (link), than gov controlled. Russian propaganda uses that fact as a pretext to justify their invasion in 2022. Playing the victim card, like they had nothing to do with it and somehow it was right to attack other countries. Let us, not. Its the same bs, they've been pulling since the early 1990s. Insert agents, organize, supply and support armed groups. Send troops. Start or escalate a war. Profit.
Ukrainian forces were fighting mostly pro-Russian locals only at the beginning. It has been long confirmed, that they were actively supported by Russian military servicemen on "vacation". Practically making it an invasion from start.
I wager that every invaded country would have acted in a similar fashion. Trying to defeat the intruders and restore territorial integrity. Take a look at how Russia dealt with Chechnya. Tens of thousands of civilians were killed in those wars but we are all fine with it remaining a part of Russia.

We can condemn the EU and US for meddling and Euromaidan. That is fair enough. But Russia shares the blame for escalation, from the outset. They have also been involved in Ukrainian affairs long before, since the breakup. Secured base lease on Crimea and gas transit. They didn't invade to rid Ukraine of Russian killing Nazis. They have plenty Nazis in their own ranks. But to secure as much territory as physically possible, ideally the whole country, before it could become member of the EU or God forbid, NATO. Losing all their strategic assets in and around. Other than that, Putin is just being true to his rhetoric, vision and modern iteration of Stalinism.

 

[Topkick]

Both sides are idiots at this point.

I wish the innocent Ukranian people the best, but I think it's a racket. People are making money at their and our expense. Also, Putin has always felt Ukraine was integral to Russia and I'm not sure but also not convinced he wouldn't stop there. If he fucked with a NATO country, it'd be a different ballgame.

 

[ThunderHorse]

This is not a recent or a short war. I'm not for or against Russia or Ukraine, both sides have done some well planned and seriously fucked up shit. If Russia had plans to expand, which would automatically instigate WW3 with NATO; we'd already be a smoldering pile.

But it's Ukraine that's erasing the existence of Russian speaking Ukrainian's and has been since the US instigated a coup multiple times but was finally successful in 2014. Zelensky has done things in his own country just as bad as Putin. Arresting the press and his opposition. Refusing to hold elections. Making it illegal to even talk about peace negotiations.

US instigated coup? That's a, that's something. Not remotely. Russian speaking Ukrainians are living prosperously in Odessa right now. Everywhere that is currently occupied had children forcibly removed from their parents and shipped to Russia.

Russia's plans to expand? He got within 20 miles of Kiev, it's clear he had intentions to expand. The Donbas was ethnically cleansed by Putin to only have Ethnic Russians in it. And it was a freaking war zone.

Putin ain't a good guy, should Ukraine have elections? Certainly. Zelensky has prounced around in his green sweater for quite awhile.

 

[Gordus]

US instigated coup? That's a, that's something. Not remotely. Russian speaking Ukrainians are living prosperously in Odessa right now. Everywhere that is currently occupied had children forcibly removed from their parents and shipped to Russia.

Russia's plans to expand? He got within 20 miles of Kiev, it's clear he had intentions to expand. The Donbas was ethnically cleansed by Putin to only have Ethnic Russians in it. And it was a freaking war zone.

Putin ain't a good guy, should Ukraine have elections? Certainly. Zelensky has prounced around in his green sweater for quite awhile.

The "genocide" narrative is a Russian classic that is used before every invasion. In 2008, they did the exact same. Used overinflated casualty figures as pretext. The high civilian death toll was the major piece of justification for invasion, in their narrative. When the smoke cleared, they corrected the number of killed civilians from 2,000 to 162. Because they had won, achieved their goals of occupation and the truth didn't matter at that point.
They keep tossing that word around so much it loses any weight and meaning. Nothing different happened to Ukraine. Its a far greater mess, perhaps more comparable to 1992-93, but with the same actors using the same methods. Their victims messing up too, doesn't make the instigator and invader less bad, than if they hadn't. They are still the aggressors when they launch a war of aggression and conquest, no matter how hard they try to twist it into some ludicrous Samaritan fairy tale.

 

[ThunderHorse]

The "genocide" narrative is a Russian classic that is used before every invasion. In 2008, they did the exact same. Used overinflated casualty figures as pretext. The high civilian death toll was the major piece of justification for invasion, in their narrative. When the smoke cleared, they corrected the number of killed civilians from 2,000 to 162. Because they had won, achieved their goals of occupation and the truth didn't matter at that point.
They keep tossing that word around so much it loses any weight and meaning. Nothing different happened to Ukraine. Its a far greater mess, perhaps more comparable to 1992-93, but with the same actors using the same methods. Their victims messing up too, doesn't make the instigator and invader less bad, than if they hadn't. They are still the aggressors when they launch a war of aggression and conquest, no matter how hard they try to twist it into some ludicrous Samaritan fairy tale.

Russia murdered more Civilians in the first 3 months than Ukraine could have in a decade in the Donbas. Russia's justification for seizure was the same as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "Discrimination of Russian Speaking minority". In these areas they had representation in the Georgian government and ran their territories. So would it not be Russian speakers discriminating against themselves?

These people weren't being murdered, they weren't being jailed at rates that were wildly different. Historically both Abkhazia and South Ossetia were Georgian territories before the early 1800s when Russia began annexing Georgia. Now, the current conflict was more modern and began during the Soviet reign. And From the late 90s Russia funded the separatist parties there. Ossetian ethnic conflict much different from the Abkhazian one.

Soviet Union may have collapsed, but the majority of the internal Russian governmental apparatus just rebranded. The government didn't really fall apart as can been by the shoddy ship upkeep standards among other things.

Russia has interfered in Ukraine since Ukraine gave up its Nukes. In that agreement both the US and Russia agreed to support Ukrainian neutrality. If we're looking at the "Coup", which is funny because all signs point to Yushenko being poisoned by the Russians in the 2004 election that Yanukovich "won" which was ordered to a run off. Yanukovich campaigned significantly more pro-western in 2010 and immediately flipped and cozied up to the Russians when Ukraine was in the middle of trying to be admitted to the EU. Which let's get real, the EU is not NATO, but how does joining that make Ukraine not "neutral". Pretty sure we've seen EU members go shoot at each other.

So if 2014 was a "coup", 2004 was an attempted Coup and 2010 was definitely a coup.

 

[Gordus]

"Discrimination of Russian Speaking minority".

Its even cheaper than that. They simply distributed Russian passports in both regions, to create that pretext. Abkhazians aren't Russian and never felt nor do feel Russian or a part of Russia. Same with the Alans.

These people weren't being murdered, they weren't being jailed at rates that were wildly different. Historically both Abkhazia and South Ossetia were Georgian territories before the early 1800s when Russia began annexing Georgia. Now, the current conflict was more modern and began during the Soviet reign. And From the late 90s Russia funded the separatist parties there. Ossetian ethnic conflict much different from the Abkhazian one.

Those events, particularly 1992 and 2014, share lots of similarities. Moscow backed actor trying to eliminate any representation of the majority population, so they'd have no voice. Organizing a small militia to take control over Abkhazia by force and cede, only to get ejected by government troops. Moscow, not happy with that setback, mediating a ceasefire to convince Georgia withdrawing her troops, while secretly arming and reinforcing their separatists. Sudden massive surprise attack supported by Russian mercenaries and military, followed by ethnic cleansing. The same old formula.

Soviet Union may have collapsed, but the majority of the internal Russian governmental apparatus just rebranded. The government didn't really fall apart as can been by the shoddy ship upkeep standards among other things.

Russia has interfered in Ukraine since Ukraine gave up its Nukes. In that agreement both the US and Russia agreed to support Ukrainian neutrality. If we're looking at the "Coup", which is funny because all signs point to Yushenko being poisoned by the Russians in the 2004 election that Yanukovich "won" which was ordered to a run off. Yanukovich campaigned significantly more pro-western in 2010 and immediately flipped and cozied up to the Russians when Ukraine was in the middle of trying to be admitted to the EU. Which let's get real, the EU is not NATO, but how does joining that make Ukraine not "neutral". Pretty sure we've seen EU members go shoot at each other.

Couldn't have put it better.

 

[ThunderHorse]

The west continues to authorize aid and continues to fail to deliver. I wonder how far behind on delivery the US is, I think we've authorized close to 200B in aid and probably have delivered 100B? Shortages are wild and that is allowing Russians to make gains. Also, whoda thunk that Russians would learn to use combined arms maneuver in the early 21st century...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768947897859453165

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769163173381202208

 

[Marauder06]

If the Soviets' withdrawal from Afghanistan hastened the fall of the Soviet Union, what might similar failure by the Soviets Russians in Ukraine do to Russia?

 

[AWP]

The west continues to authorize aid and continues to fail to deliver. I wonder how far behind on delivery the US is, I think we've authorized close to 200B in aid and probably have delivered 100B?

Full disclosure: my post is based on a sub-2 minute Google search and review. Your memory may well be correct, I don't know.

Sources typically agree on about 75 billion in aid.

This one has 113 billion going to the Ukraine:
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Assistance to Ukraine: A Deep Dive into the Data

Of interest to me is this bit, something I rarely see elsewhere in the media:

it is important to note that not all of this funding has gone to Ukraine. A good proportion of this funding is being spent in the United States, or on U.S. personnel.

Which then makes me wonder what type of shell game or money laundering is occurring RE: Ukrainian aid. We did it in the 80's with cocaine, the Contras, Iran, and whoever else.

When your bank account has thousands, balancing a checkbook is easy. When your bank account has billions, balancing your checkbook is a hobby.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Full disclosure: my post is based on a sub-2 minute Google search and review. Your memory may well be correct, I don't know.

Sources typically agree on about 75 billion in aid.

This one has 113 billion going to the Ukraine:
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Assistance to Ukraine: A Deep Dive into the Data

Of interest to me is this bit, something I rarely see elsewhere in the media:


Which then makes me wonder what type of shell game or money laundering is occurring RE: Ukrainian aid. We did it in the 80's with cocaine, the Contras, Iran, and whoever else.

When your bank account has thousands, balancing a checkbook is easy. When your bank account has billions, balancing your checkbook is a hobby.

I stopped trying to count, there was a graphic showing authorized western aid versus delivered like a year ago and I can't find anything recently, my guess is everyone is super behind and oh, it's just a money laundering exercise. . .

 

[Box]

If the Soviets' withdrawal from Afghanistan hastened the fall of the Soviet Union, what might similar failure by the Soviets Russians in Ukraine do to Russia?

I'm curious about both sides of that coin.
After almost a decade in Vietnam, the US Military in the 1970's was in poor shape. Discipline was poor - reports of drug problems - poor funding - poor recruiting - a lot like we are now - on the tail of another long and unsuccessful war.

On top of that - we are pissing money away on what are also - essentially UNWINNABLE efforts based on the way we are currently funding them.
We are already in for 200 billion taxpayer dollars in military aid commitments - how much more in military aid cash will we piss away before we realize that the only hope at a relevant victory in Ukraine is to start providing the taxpayers in the same package as the cash...

Then there is our never ending meddling with affairs in the middle east.
We are literally burning that candle at both ends right now - military aid to the Israelis while we are indirectly funding Hamas through humanitarian dollars and media support.

We pissed away a win in Vietnam - we pissed away a win in Iraq - we pissed away a win in Afghanistan - we are well on our way to pissing away a 'save' in Ukraine - and now we are doing our best to show that 60 years worth of failed diplomacy we still cant figure out that we simply CANNOT play both sides of an Arab/Israeli conflict without stepping in shit.

I am remarkably less curious about how the history of a loss in Afghanistan will look on the Russian score-card should they "lose" in Ukraine than I am about how the history of losses in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan will look of an American score-card should the Russians eventually make their way into Kiev.
...or drag American bodies into eastern Ukraine.

 

[Gunz]

And now we're pissing money into Haiti, too.

If the Soviets' withdrawal from Afghanistan hastened the fall of the Soviet Union, what might similar failure by the Soviets Russians in Ukraine do to Russia?

Well, sir, I think the major difference here is that Gorbachev's policies in the 80's led to more political freedom and reduced the power of the communist party. This gave rise to more strident political protest, hastening the fall from the grassroots level. But Putin's a different animal. If things fall apart for him in Ukraine, he'll just tighten his grip. He's like a wet bowline knot--never gets loose, only tighter and harder to untie the more you pull it.

All he has to do is stay alive. And if he croaks there are a number of hardliners in the wings who could take his place and be equally dictatorial--if in everything but name.

 

[Marauder06]

I'm curious about both sides of that coin.
After almost a decade in Vietnam, the US Military 70's was in poor shape. Discipline was poor - reports of drug problems - poor funding - poor recruiting - a lot like we are now - on the tail of another long and unsuccessful war.

My father was in the Army during the Vietnam era, but joined at the tail end and never served in that war. But he had plenty of stories regarding the same things you're talking about--terrible discipline, racial tensions, recruiting and retention, all of it. It does not sound like that Army was fun at all.

On top of that - we are pissing money away on what are also - essentially UNWINNABLE efforts based on the way we are currently funding them.

I disagree slightly with the above. Every conflict since WWII was imminently winnable; we, as a country, just no longer want to do what it takes to win them.

We are already in for 200 billion taxpayer dollars in military aid commitments - how much more in military aid cash will we piss away before we realize that the only hope at a relevant victory in Ukraine is to start providing the taxpayers in the same package as the cash...

^ brilliant point; I hope it never gets to that

Then there is our never ending meddling with affairs in the middle east.
We are literally burning that candle at both ends right now - military aid to the Israelis while we are indirectly funding Hamas through humanitarian dollars and media support.

Yep; we need to stop giving money to people who hate us. Abroad and at home.

 

[Marauder06]

And now we're pissing money into Haiti, too.



Well, sir, I think the major difference here is that Gorbachev's policies in the 80's led to more political freedom and reduced the power of the communist party. This gave rise to more strident political protest, hastening the fall from the grassroots level. But Putin's a different animal. If things fall apart for him in Ukraine, he'll just tighten his grip. He's like a wet bowline knot--never gets loose, only tighter and harder to untie the more you pull it.

All he has to do is stay alive. And if he croaks there are a number of hardliners in the wings who could take his place and be equally dictatorial--if in everything but name.

Great points.

However, if things get bad enough, even dictators can end up on the wrong end of the torches and pitchforks. See also: Gaddaffi. Or, closer to the Russian home, the last czar.

 

[Topkick]

I'm not for or against Russia or Ukraine

the US instigated a coup multiple times but was finally successful in 2014.

Right, but shame on me for having such a simpleton view I guess. We asked for a war and Putin gave us one. The reasons are clear, the value and outcomes are debatable.

 

[Topkick]

Every conflict since WWII was imminently winnable; we, as a country, just no longer want to do what it takes to win them.

I agree completely. Nobody will convince me that we couldn't beat the snot out of anyone we wanted to, when we want to. Most of us have been somewhere to see why we didn't.

 

[Box]

I could have worded that part a little better - perhaps a minor adjustment better shows what I meant to communicate...

"On top of that - we are pissing money away on what are also - essentially UNWINNABLE efforts because of the way we are currently funding them and our refusal to do what it takes to win."

"Winning" has become an odd bird to American taxpayers. Winning is the opposite of ekwalitee - and we just aren't about that anymore. The idea that we can just show up - smack someone in the lips - and then open a fast food joint is a long dead animal.

Metaphorically speaking - there are no vegan fast food joints - and opening a fast food joint is one of the ways we the people used to flex our victory.

 

[Topkick]

could have worded that part a little better

Knew what you meant, Smaj, but wanted to point out that "unwinnable" meant something different.

 

[Gunz]

Great points.

However, if things get bad enough, even dictators can end up on the wrong end of the torches and pitchforks. See also: Gaddaffi. Or, closer to the Russian home, the last czar.

Yes sir, very true. And if he keeps throwing his fellow Russians out of 5th floor hospital windows, making their planes blow up and injecting them with poison, it might very well be the FSB and his own military that finally overthrow him. With his control still apparently firm, I think an internal revolt would stand more of a chance than any popular uprising. And might be more likely.