Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[AWP]

Loss of any Mainstays is a pretty big blow to their capability.

I was curious and decided to run from something other than my memory. E-3 mission-capable rates are declining by roughly 10% per year, to between 55-60% in 2024.
Air Force Mission Capable Rates Fall in 2023
KC-135's, same airframe, have an MC rate of around 70% with other -135 variants approaching 80%.

Back to the Sovi...Russians, if our MCR is 55-60 percent, do we really think Russia has the same numbers?

 

[amlove21]

I was curious and decided to run from something other than my memory. E-3 mission-capable rates are declining by roughly 10% per year, to between 55-60% in 2024.
Air Force Mission Capable Rates Fall in 2023
KC-135's, same airframe, have an MC rate of around 70% with other -135 variants approaching 80%.

Back to the Sovi...Russians, if our MCR is 55-60 percent, do we really think Russia has the same numbers?

This is a great question- something I thought of during an earlier post (I think @talonlm ) asking about fallout from the intel agencies and other Russian NatSec agencies missing the drones and what the fallout would be, which is another great question.

I think something that plays in here is a bit of assuming that their best agencies are on par with ours. If the entire Russia/Ukraine war has shown me (personally) anything, it's that I feel I was a bit gaslit by our own IC and their estimations of military strengths and capabilities.

"Russia is a near peer! China is a pacing threat!" ... oh, word? Cause all the available information at my disposal leads me to believe that Russia is a gas station with nukes and a GDP less than Cali, Texas, and NY, with a military inventory that's 50 years old, completely devoid of innovation, and like 15 5th gen fighters.

Ukraine bought some drones off Amazon, flew them directly over Russian bases, and destroyed 30% of their fleet. The surprising thing about this isn't the "sophistication" of the Ukranian attack, it's the opposite. The astonishing thing is Russia's inability to stop the very obvious single tool Ukraine has to damage Russia.

So that's fun.

 

[Gunz]

Since this shit show was launched, it's been pretty obvious Russia's dick is about 6-inches shorter than it led the world to believe.

 

[Devildoc]

The Ukes better decide to go visit their out-of-country relatives because things gonna get sporty. Russia has a pathological need to save face like China.

 

[Blizzard]

This is a great question- something I thought of during an earlier post (I think @talonlm ) asking about fallout from the intel agencies and other Russian NatSec agencies missing the drones and what the fallout would be, which is another great question.

I think something that plays in here is a bit of assuming that their best agencies are on par with ours. If the entire Russia/Ukraine war has shown me (personally) anything, it's that I feel I was a bit gaslit by our own IC and their estimations of military strengths and capabilities.

"Russia is a near peer! China is a pacing threat!" ... oh, word? Cause all the available information at my disposal leads me to believe that Russia is a gas station with nukes and a GDP less than Cali, Texas, and NY, with a military inventory that's 50 years old, completely devoid of innovation, and like 15 5th gen fighters.

Ukraine bought some drones off Amazon, flew them directly over Russian bases, and destroyed 30% of their fleet. The surprising thing about this isn't the "sophistication" of the Ukranian attack, it's the opposite. The astonishing thing is Russia's inability to stop the very obvious single tool Ukraine has to damage Russia.

So that's fun.

So, now let's ask, could we really stop a similar attack -- in the US?

There are nearly 2M unknown MAMs in this country illegally. We have numerous publicly documented reports of unauthorized drone swarms and incidents that could be viewed as probing base defenses over the past couple years. Is our integrated base defense as vigilant and capable as we want/need it to be...especially in more urban settings?

 

[amlove21]

So, now let's ask, could we really stop a similar attack -- in the US?

There are nearly 2M unknown MAMs in this country illegally. We have numerous publicly documented reports of unauthorized drone swarms and incidents that could be viewed as probing base defenses over the past couple years. Is our integrated base defense as vigilant and capable as we want/need it to be...especially in more urban settings?

I mean there is no way to prove a counterfactual, right? The Mexican cartels have made their bones smuggling things across our southern border, maybe up to and including heat-seeking missiles (allegedly) and the largest human trafficking operation in the history of the world. I think it's super easy to look at that and go "Nope, America is ripe for an attack whenever someone wants to do it, America and Russia are same/same".

I guess if we were to compare apples to apples here we could explore the following hypothetical- we engage with Mexico in an all-out state-sponsored LSCO shooting war for 4 years. The question is, "Could we prevent (either through intelligence apparatus or kinetically during the attack itself) Mexico from smuggling drones across our border at scale when we knew that 100% it was most likely and most deadly/costly course of action?"

I would say "yes", because we aren't retarded and have the resources to do so- but that's not even a remotely fair comparison. Mexico isn't Ukraine, and we aren't Russia.

To your bolded- need it to be and want it to be are miles apart, as with all emerging enemy TTPs.

I'll play your game for the sake of the hypothetical and say "yes" we could prevent a large scale attack on our military bases conducted by a lesser foe. Our intelligence apparatus, existing defenses and nascent drone TTPs could stop a lesser opponent from driving drones to our interior to conduct this attack.

 

[Blizzard]

I mean there is no way to prove a counterfactual, right? The Mexican cartels have made their bones smuggling things across our southern border, maybe up to and including heat-seeking missiles (allegedly) and the largest human trafficking operation in the history of the world. I think it's super easy to look at that and go "Nope, America is ripe for an attack whenever someone wants to do it, America and Russia are same/same".

I guess if we were to compare apples to apples here we could explore the following hypothetical- we engage with Mexico in an all-out state-sponsored LSCO shooting war for 4 years. The question is, "Could we prevent (either through intelligence apparatus or kinetically during the attack itself) Mexico from smuggling drones across our border at scale when we knew that 100% it was most likely and most deadly/costly course of action?"

I would say "yes", because we aren't retarded and have the resources to do so- but that's not even a remotely fair comparison. Mexico isn't Ukraine, and we aren't Russia.

To your bolded- need it to be and want it to be are miles apart, as with all emerging enemy TTPs.

I'll play your game for the sake of the hypothetical and say "yes" we could prevent a large scale attack on our military bases conducted by a lesser foe. Our intelligence apparatus, existing defenses and nascent drone TTPs could stop a lesser opponent from driving drones to our interior to conduct this attack.

To clarify, the question in my previous post wasn't necessarily one I expected an answer to, but rather, more of one to ponder. I appreciate your response. I don't know the answer.

That said, I agree, our intelligence agencies generally seem to do a good job. To me, the greater concern comes from the "unknown unknowns". Given all the unknowns/illegals in this country -- many from places other than Mexico --it's not unrealistic to believe there are some bad actors here plotting "something". How sophisticated and coordinated are they? Are security resources prepared and vigilant enough to recognize and repel such a kinetic and asymmetric attack, especially when it orginates outside the gate? Also

 

[amlove21]

Just to clarify, the question from my previous post wasn't necessarily one I expected an answer to, rather, more of one to ponder. I don't know the answer.

That said, I agree, our intelligence agencies generally seem to do a good job. The concern comes from the "unknown unknowns". Given all the unknowns in this country from many places other than Mexico, it's not unrealistic to believe there are some bad actors here plotting "something". How sophisticated and coordinated are they? Are security resources prepared and vigilant enough to recognize and repel such a kinetic and asymmetric attack, especially when it orginates outside the gate? Also

Oh, bro, I agree with you way more than I disagree, which isn't a lot. I was just playing the "what if" game on Rus/Ukr.

Forget about drones- how about small cells (4-6) of MAM's dressed as first responders conducting small scale attacks on soft targets? The rabbit hole on that problem goes so deep.

And I didn't make up that hypothetical; it was said on many other platforms.

 

[talonlm]

Forget about drones- how about small cells (4-6) of MAM's dressed as first responders conducting small scale attacks on soft targets? The rabbit hole on that problem goes so deep.

A Beslan massacre-style attacked revisited is a scary thought. Just one of many, many rabbit-holes our FBI friends have to root around in.

 

[BloodStripe]

Ukraine just attacked the Crimea bridge, again.

Ukraine hits bridge linking Crimea to Russia with underwater explosives — Guardian US

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Infantry's got nowhere to hide on a tech-advanced near-peer battlefield. Stick your head out of a hole and you get scorched by a drone.

Portable ECM's seem to be getting pretty good use for some small units (scouting/sniping), but yeah it's definitely a different perspective on the capability of dismounted infantry.

Crazy part about the man portable ECM's, is once the enemy figures out your bubble of protection, they can use that to pinpoint you for indirect, so kinda a damn if you do and damned if you don't.

I remember twenty years ago, everyone was talking about this being the future of warfare. I honestly never thought I would see in my life time, and advance so damn fast in the last 3 years or so. I mean at the beginning of the Russian invasion, they couldn't even keep their commo working, basically using cell phones to communicate and taking out cell towers to stop communication, to fully integrated digital and pairing with analog equipment to shape the current battle space is pretty fucking far out, considering the timeline of integration. I mean we are talking 3 years, but really only about half that to being used efficiently by both sides.

Kinda crazy if you ask me.

 

[Box]

So, now let's ask, could we really stop a similar attack -- in the US?

You mean like - if a belligerent power sent a high altitude spy balloon that was almost as big as the Statue of Liberty - unopposed - into US airspace - that was able to travel across the entire breadth of the continental United States unchallenged?

Yes.
We could stop a similar attack.
We proved it when we successfully interdicted the balloon.

Drones...
...pfft

 

[RackMaster]

Ukraine just attacked the Crimea bridge, again.

Ukraine hits bridge linking Crimea to Russia with underwater explosives — Guardian US

A new unmanned submersible, from what I saw.

 

[Gunz]

Yup, us 03’s and 11s are fucked.

Portable ECM's seem to be getting pretty good use for some small units (scouting/sniping), but yeah it's definitely a different perspective on the capability of dismounted infantry.

Crazy part about the man portable ECM's, is once the enemy figures out your bubble of protection, they can use that to pinpoint you for indirect, so kinda a damn if you do and damned if you don't.

I remember twenty years ago, everyone was talking about this being the future of warfare. I honestly never thought I would see in my life time, and advance so damn fast in the last 3 years or so. I mean at the beginning of the Russian invasion, they couldn't even keep their commo working, basically using cell phones to communicate and taking out cell towers to stop communication, to fully integrated digital and pairing with analog equipment to shape the current battle space is pretty fucking far out, considering the timeline of integration. I mean we are talking 3 years, but really only about half that to being used efficiently by both sides.

Kinda crazy if you ask me.

Yeah. What will it look like in just 5-10 years from now? Fuck. I mean speaking from an infantry perspective. Your hand held countermeasures better be pretty freaking good because your ass is still out there doing old school rifle & frag stuff. And you got a swarm of killer bees overhead dogging your every move

 

[AWP]

Crazy part about the man portable ECM's, is once the enemy figures out your bubble of protection, they can use that to pinpoint you for indirect, so kinda a damn if you do and damned if you don't.

Jam the drones? Take IDF. Go dark to avoid IDF? Have a drone up your ass. That man-portable ECM also gives the bad guys a cheap red force tracker. Continuing that cascade of fuckery, as the ECM models evolve the RF signatures can be used to determine units, equipment, whatever.

Free intel.

Trying to use a passive detection counter drone system creates its own problems, not least of which are the costs and maintenance associated with those systems. Otherwise, you go back to a bunch of privates scanning the skies with thermal or whatever devices, a high-tech version of the lookouts of old.

But how do you hold terrain if cheap drone swarms can neutralize your soldiers? Throw more soldiers at the problem and overwhelm the drones' ability to effectively respond?

 

[Jaknight]

Jam the drones? Take IDF. Go dark to avoid IDF? Have a drone up your ass. That man-portable ECM also gives the bad guys a cheap red force tracker. Continuing that cascade of fuckery, as the ECM models evolve the RF signatures can be used to determine units, equipment, whatever.

Free intel.

Trying to use a passive detection counter drone system creates its own problems, not least of which are the costs and maintenance associated with those systems. Otherwise, you go back to a bunch of privates scanning the skies with thermal or whatever devices, a high-tech version of the lookouts of old.

But how do you hold terrain if cheap drone swarms can neutralize your soldiers? Throw more soldiers at the problem and overwhelm the drones' ability to effectively respond?

This is why I love this website. I had no idea using ecm makes you easy to track.

 

[amlove21]

Jam the drones? Take IDF. Go dark to avoid IDF? Have a drone up your ass. That man-portable ECM also gives the bad guys a cheap red force tracker. Continuing that cascade of fuckery, as the ECM models evolve the RF signatures can be used to determine units, equipment, whatever.

Free intel.

Trying to use a passive detection counter drone system creates its own problems, not least of which are the costs and maintenance associated with those systems. Otherwise, you go back to a bunch of privates scanning the skies with thermal or whatever devices, a high-tech version of the lookouts of old.

But how do you hold terrain if cheap drone swarms can neutralize your soldiers? Throw more soldiers at the problem and overwhelm the drones' ability to effectively respond?

Fun fact- the Air Force was knighted by SOCOM to be the lead component for SUAS/Counter SUAS ops. You laid out some known problems- and our Special Recon bros might/might not have some very exquisite solutions for those problems. I can neither confirm nor deny if they're live.

The one thing I can absolutely confirm- SR is just SOWT with better makeup (kidding).

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

But how do you hold terrain if cheap drone swarms can neutralize your soldiers? Throw more soldiers at the problem and overwhelm the drones' ability to effectively respond?

Yeah, kinda reinforcing my point. Obviously, have better tech to detect and engage drones is key. However, the "mass attack" becomes the problem that, boils down to manpower, munitions and countermeasures vs OPFOR drone supply and resupply.

As with any type of warfare, it almost always comes down to manpower and logistics. But at any rate, too far forward of my understanding of the evolution of this type of warfare... Honestly glad I am not the poor bastard fighting on either side of it.

Guess it's about time to really focus on those drone foot soldiers, as we are seeing currently, with both sides, the "manpower" is becoming the deciding factor in this war.

 

[AWP]

This is why I love this website. I had no idea using ecm makes you easy to track.

It isn’t a secret though. If it radiates energy you can find the source. One receiver gives you a bearing, two can find a point, 3 dials it in, the more the merrier. The longer you transmit the easier it is to find the source, that’s why burst communications are a big deal.

Where it really gets fun is when you learn how to communicate in the noise floor of an environment, use terrain or other means to mask your source or focus your RF path, etc.

Direction finding doesn’t care about your encryption or even frequency hopping for modern gear.