Vlad’s betting we don’t have the stones to go to war with Russia. He could gas all of Kiev and the West will do nothing militarily. No one will openly confront a nuclear armed nation, much less Russia.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter pardus
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Vlad’s betting we don’t have the stones to go to war with Russia. He could gas all of Kiev and the West will do nothing militarily. No one will openly confront a nuclear armed nation, much less Russia.
Step through it though. Economic sanctions will hurt him enough to withdraw? Why? A people’s revolt? The oligarchs pressuring Vlad? The former will be crushed and the latter is enough to overcome Vlad’s will? Not likely.
Russia will need capital, imports, exports, it isn’t an island. Now what?
China is what.
We’re going to flood the Ukraine with small arms and such, maybe some wheeled vehicles. They need tanks, planes, helos, air defense that isn’t MANPADs. Who is sending that stuff? The tooth fairy? The West won’t escalate like that. We’re afraid Pooty Poo will do (insert bad thing here). So, we follow the 1980’s Afghanistan model and hope the Ukraine can hang on.
But can it? Will Russia commit more troops? They’ll probably sent Belorussian’s in to die in the Ukraine, but then what if the Ukraine bleeds them dry…assuming there’s a Ukraine in a month or two? To quote that scion of information Jen Psaki: let’s circle back to the top of this post.
What can overcome Vlad’s ego? What is stronger than his will?
I really wonder how much longer the Ukraine can “Wolverine up” before it is bled dry.
Blizzard
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Given how the Russians have reportedly stalled out and, if casualty numbers are even in the ballpark, I could see a scenario where Putin tries to save face by simply remaining in the separatist regions and negotiating from there saying, "See, I was just getting rid of the Nazis".
They're already two weeks into something they reportedly thought would be done in 15 days. That's not happening. How much longer will this "special military operation" continue?
The only other option appears to be complete scorched earth, which doesn't make a ton of sense (which isn't necessarily a requirement given what's taken place so far). There aren't too many Ukrainians willing to back a Russian regime. So, short of that, Russian will be pulled into a very long and costly insurgency. The motherland will grow weary of that it fairly quickly, I imagine.
Putin’s ego, his ambitions, his credibility, his relevance, his political power and political life depends on the success of this venture. He has to win, or at least appear to win, especially now, since his opening moves have been embarrassing, clumsy and expensive. He cannot afford to lose more face.
Nothing he might do would surprise me.
Except nukes. Nukes would surprise me.
Nothing he might do would surprise me.
Except nukes. Nukes would surprise me.
I agree completely.
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A little aside, FWIW... this is one of Omar's opponents. I hope she's right....
Omar is so popular within her constituency right now that short of a federal indictment I don't see her leaving office. Ever. Unless it's on to a higher one...
One can always hope that she is sucked up by evil aliens and used as a science experiment unless they feel she is rotten goods and send her back to us as punishment....
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That is the issue. Her district has only voted Democrat for the early '60s...and it's not even close. That said, the district now has a large Somali population, which is how Omar got elected. Will be interesting to see if another Somali female can draw interest. Omar does come under scrutiny here too, the question is do the people in that district even care? The people in that district are radical, fanatical Dems.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
So the war must be going reeeeeeeelllll bad. Recruiting Syrians and deploying PMCs?
Seems like the Russians are showing their true colors...
Russian military vehicles are flying Soviet hammer and sickle flags in Ukraine
Russian military vehicles are flying Soviet hammer and sickle flags in Ukraine
This is an interesting conversation, that gives a little insight into Putin.
So, Ukraine has long been considered Europe's bread basket...with farmers fighting and stealing tanks and such, I wonder if crops are being planted and how much damage is being done to those already planted...? Could be hard times in Europe come fall...
Wagner Group I reckon. Putin's buddy's private army.
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When the SHTF City folk have to unass the AO. Farmer's can't. They gotta stay. Animals need to cared for, crops need to be sowed or harvested or fertilized or whatever. The war goes on around them.
Right now Russian objectives seem to be population centers. If they're transiting rural areas in tracked vehicles they'll tear shit up. And I have no idea how much actual fighting is going on in the countryside.
Devildoc
Verified Military
Isn't that the group we kicked the shit out of in Syria? I think it is.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
This tweet...
Devildoc
Verified Military
Are they even changing their socks and drinking water??
JedisonsDad
Verified SOF
I bet we can find pictures of the Russians with their hands in their pockets, too.
