Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Blizzard]

Soviet losses in Afghanistan over a decade were about 20k; that’s 2,000 a year for Marines and Cav Scouts.

Now they have lost half of that in about a month?

I want to believe those numbers are true, but I can’t.

Yeah, I don't know. Different type of fight from what we've seen the past 20 years. The numbers do seem pretty staggering.

These were numbers Ukraine pumped out as of 15 March:


Compare this to Vietnam losses: Official numbers put U.S. losses at ~58K over 20 years. ~40K were combat losses with largest losses occurring between '65 - '71. Our heaviest year of loss was '68 with ~16K causalities.

Point is, Russia appears to be approaching those numbers in just one month!

This doesn't even take into account deserters, which may be a significant number as well.

 

[AWP]

Those are WWII loses. That’s staggering and this no Great Patriotic War no matter what connections Putin tries to create.

 

[Marauder06]

My instinct is to reduce the reported casualties to about 1/3. But even then, those are some big numbers for a campaign that was supposed to be a cake walk.

It would make me happy to learn that those reported numbers are correct.

 

[BloodStripe]

It appears Russia is gaining some headway in the southern part of the country. They are using the port in Maripoul to unload equipment from ships.

 

[BloodStripe]

Biden said today that Russia may begin targeting U.S. companies with cyber warfare.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505973896864055297

 

[AWP]

If this war “forces” you to harden your network:
1) you suck and your IT staff should be set on fire. Senior leadership should be boiled alive.
2) we’ve been under attack for awhile now, so it is about to get worse? Shit…
3) we need good cyber folks behind a desk. Go fuck yourself and a PT test. Also, cash money to find good people. We’re playing catch-up.
4) letters of marquee were a thing once. Time to hire some pirates to plunder on behalf of our country.
5) seems like some of the medically retired “undesirables” could contribute if given a chance. See #3 above.

The solutions are right freaking there, low hanging fruit.

 

[Blizzard]

It appears Russia is gaining some headway in the southern part of the country. They are using the port in Maripoul to unload equipment from ships.

Background brief today did mention increased naval activity in Black Sea but he didn't believe it to be a precursor to an amphibious assault:
Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing

He notes a great deal of fighting around Mariupol but it hasn't fallen. Overall Russians not making much progress. The underlying theme seems to be: we don't really know what the hell they're doing and doesn't seem like they do either.

 

[BloodStripe]

Background brief today did mention increased naval activity in Black Sea but he didn't believe it to be a precursor to an amphibious assault:
Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing

He notes a great deal of fighting around Mariupol but it hasn't fallen. Overall Russians not making much progress. The underlying theme seems to be: we don't really know what the hell they're doing and doesn't seem like they do either.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505872843283832835

 

[ThunderHorse]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505872843283832835

Have to use the ports because the rail lines are all cut. It should be easy for them to make progress, they are massed. Ukrainian Army isn't massed anywhere, for obvious reasons. Except that it hasn't been "easy". Although since Putin is deploying Rosgovardia to Ukraine (and in Mariupol) they may make some headway since you know...nothing like more bodies to a lack of training problem. Why are you internal police better equipped and trained than your actual Army I wonder?


Anyways, apparently WWII is still going. Japan protests Russian halt to World War Two peace treaty talks

 

[AWP]

All the Soviets are doing is unloading more fodder for Javs and NLAWs. Their air force is neutered and without PGMs which places them in MANPADS country. Their ground troops are conscripts with a broken log system. The Sovs spent a lot of defense dollars on aircraft, so their ground troops don't have the best stuff out there. Putin's turning on the FSB which is ironic given his background. They've effectively lost a division's worth of manpower in killed and wounded plus (based on Blizzard's infographic above):

10 companies of armor or about 2.5 battalions (one armored brigade or the armor strength of almost 3 rifle brigades
31 companies of mech/ motorized infantry (support vehicles are mixed among those numbers) or 8-10 battalions (support vehicles are kind of hard to pin down)
6 mlrs batteries (a motorized rifle regiment has 3 batteries)

So, yeah, if you take the above numbers (which are probably on the high side), the Sovs have lost a full division or half of a combined arms army. 1 out of every 15 soldiers is a casualty?

Again, those are WWII casualty numbers.

 

[RackMaster]

@AWP fuck your number 3 and 5. Oh and fuck you. They'd have to dangle a fuck load of money to make it worth my time. In the mean time, I'll wait for the Russians to cross the Arctic and shoot them from the comfort of my living room.

 

[BloodStripe]

Russia’s Only Prototype T-80UM2 Tank Was Destroyed In Ukraine

I vaguely remember this being touted back in the late 90’s. I also never realized it never went beyond the first unit. I’m not really surprised to see it in Ukraine though. Military vehicles are purpose built and I’d imagine we too would use prototype vehicles if they shared most the same parts as others (airplanes aside).

 

[AWP]

@AWP fuck your number 3 and 5. Oh and fuck you. They'd have to dangle a fuck load of money to make it worth my time. In the mean time, I'll wait for the Russians to cross the Arctic and shoot them from the comfort of my living room.

I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic. If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.

 

[RackMaster]

I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic. If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.

I completely agree with you and we're all playing catch up. But I'm still not taking any calls.

 

[BloodStripe]

I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic. If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.

@Teufel can speak better to this, but a few years ago this is the direction that the Marine Corps wanted to go (at least partially) with their cyber command. I’m not sure if it actually took off though.

https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Agenci...er-Division/Marine-Corps-Cyber-Auxiliary/FAQ/

 

[Ex3]

Here's a readable article Mearshimer published about Ukraine back in 2014 that sums up his rationale:

https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf

This bit is telling, especially since the article was written in 2014.

Besides, even if it wanted to, Russia lacks the capability to easily conquer and annex eastern Ukraine, much less the entire country.
Roughly 15 million people—one-third of Ukraine’s population—live between the Dnieper River, which bisects the country, and the Russian border. An overwhelming majority of those people want to remain part of Ukraine and would surely resist a Russian occupation. Furthermore, Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turning into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine. Moscow is also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions.

 

[AWP]

Russia is allegedly incapable of producing new tanks due to a lack of foreign-made components:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506015569283149826

Even if China stepped in to provide whatever is missing, the burn rate on Russian armor makes this a pretty big deal...if true.

 

[ThunderHorse]

I'm offering solutions and what must be valued opinions on the topic. If this war doesn't highlight the need for a better cyber force, PT test be damned, then I don't know what will save for a near total destruction of our online networks.

So, if your cyber force dies in the chair drinking double big gulps it's totes ok?

 

[Ex3]

With regard to the Russian casualties, do y'all think their next of kin are being notified? I'm thinking not otherwise the mothers of Russia would be storming the Kremlin.

 

[ThunderHorse]

With regard to the Russian casualties, do y'all think their next of kin are being notified? I'm thinking not otherwise the mothers of Russia would be storming the Kremlin.

Ukraine made a website for repatriation of dead Russian soldiers. Great IO, but I think Russia turned the global access to internet off a week ago.