That's... a lot.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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One month.
What is Putin's off ramp at this point? This should be a huge concern and priority for everyone. I'm not seeing anything about any sr. level discussions with Russia, certainly not anything from the Biden administration. Who is talking with Russia?
If they started with 190k involved with the "special operation" and 40k of those are killed, wounded, or "other", then that's...seriously? Roughly 1 in 5? Even bringing in replacements you have...1 in 6? 1 in 7 tops?
A 1 in 7 chance of being killed, wounded, or captured? Hell, the only people with a higher statistical casualty rate are those with knowledge that could lead to the indictment of Hillary Clinton.
A 1 in 7 chance of being killed, wounded, or captured? Hell, the only people with a higher statistical casualty rate are those with knowledge that could lead to the indictment of Hillary Clinton.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
After doing a bunch of reading on the Rosgovardiya, my beer drinking opinion is that the only thing they're similar to is the Waffen SS. Rosgovardiya is the same size as the Russian Army, except no tanks (but APCs and IFVs). From videos and images they seem better equipped and trained.
Also from a Unity of Command standpoint...this all makes no sense.
These are all separate branches of the Russian Armed Forces:
Putin has also deployed parts of the Chechen Army, which sit outside of the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces, and Chechen Rosgovardiya which is separate from the Russian one.
Haven't seen any reports of the Russian Border Service troops being deployed yet. But this is a helluva mess, they clearly need a CFLC stood up to manage this.
Also from a Unity of Command standpoint...this all makes no sense.
These are all separate branches of the Russian Armed Forces:
- Russian Ground Forces
- Russian Airborne Forces (VDV)
- Russian Special Operations Forces
- Logistical Support of the Russian Armed Forces
Putin has also deployed parts of the Chechen Army, which sit outside of the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces, and Chechen Rosgovardiya which is separate from the Russian one.
Haven't seen any reports of the Russian Border Service troops being deployed yet. But this is a helluva mess, they clearly need a CFLC stood up to manage this.
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ThunderHorse
Verified Military
Macron has mediated about 10 calls. Bennett tried to do some stuff, but comes off as a Russian stooge. Then Erdogan hosted two rounds of talks in Turkey.One month.
What is Putin's off ramp at this point? This should be a huge concern and priority for everyone. I'm not seeing anything about any sr. level discussions with Russia, certainly not anything from the Biden administration. Who is talking with Russia?
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Is the U.S. even in the room?
From a foreign policy perspective, seems kind of important but maybe that's just me.
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It Russia isn't taking their calls, then the Biden administration needs to find someone they will speak with...and not Kamala.
Wonder what the latest is from China on the topic as well.
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ThunderHorse
Verified Military
I think the only ones left are Turkey and France. That isn't to say either are Friendly. French Parliament has been pretty belligerent and very supportive of Ukraine. Arms shipments, troop deployments to neighboring countries. Turkey delivering more TB2s etc.
Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage
Maybe the Commandant was on to something without even realizing the full impact of why he removed tanks.
Maybe the Commandant was on to something without even realizing the full impact of why he removed tanks.
Forgive the site, but this article is closet to the paywalled Washington Post one I wanted to share.
Biden lets European leaders take center stage against Russia
The main idea is that the US has been talking with allies but not taking center stage so as to avoid this being a "US vs. Russia" but "EU vs. Russia" conflict.
If it gets other countries into NATO/increases the actual defense spending of EU countries (Germany) then I'd call it a good strategy so far.
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This is a story I want to hear more about:
One of the big questions has been "where's Russia's air force?"
Report's say Ukrainians are flying 5 - 10 sorties per day, there are/were regular dogfights and they're vastly outnumbered (like 5 to 1). They don't have a lot of jets left (~55), but have solid tactics and continue to punch above their weight.
One of the big questions has been "where's Russia's air force?"
Report's say Ukrainians are flying 5 - 10 sorties per day, there are/were regular dogfights and they're vastly outnumbered (like 5 to 1). They don't have a lot of jets left (~55), but have solid tactics and continue to punch above their weight.
ThunderHorse
Verified Military
Eh, Biden picked up the red phone and no one picked up.
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ETA: New video of burning Russian "alligator" ship.
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It’s astonishing to me that at this point I’m the war Ukraine’s Air Force consists of more than zero airframes.
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I would have thought a flurry of GLCMs and AGMs would have thoroughly crushed them a week into the fighting. If not the airframes, the airfields and support facilities.
TLDR20
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Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid.
From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.
I agree. I also wonder how much of it is attributable to A) the extraordinary about of foreign assistance the Ukrainians are getting; the kind of stuff that doesn't make the news and/or B) maybe the Russians are a whole lot serious about this whole thing than we think
And now a Colonel.
