Ukraine - Russia Conflict

That’s some pretty super-relaxed mine clearing ops. It’s almost like they knew those mines didn’t have anti-handling devices. That they probably knew because they were the ones who put them down I the first place.

You make it sound like the Ukrainians are engaging in IO for favorable press. The good guys don’t do that!

:ninja:
 
What Mariupol looked like before Russian De-Nazification Special Operation:
1648908414806.png

What Mariupol looks like now...



ETA:

French Military Intelligence Chief is dismissed/resigns after investigation says the DRM got the intelligence wrong on what Russia was going to do. French military spy chief quits after Ukraine failings, sources say

Honestly, I don't think anyone knew he was going to to attempt to take Kyiv and force a regime change...but we thought we were dealing with a rational actor and not someone who is pulling forces from all comers to exact atrocities upon a neighboring country.
 
Last edited:
Honestly, I don't think anyone knew he was going to to attempt to take Kyiv and force a regime change...but we thought we were dealing with a rational actor and not someone who is pulling forces from all comers to exact atrocities upon a neighboring country.

Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.
 
Last edited:
Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.
I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I. Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do. But again, not a rational actor anymore. He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were. Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.
 
I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I. Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do. But again, not a rational actor anymore. He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were. Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.
Absolutely. The short-sightedness of the whole plan borne out by the incredible logistics SNAFU. I never expected the Russian military to appear so inept. I mean, they’ve never been known for their finesse. But this was a surprise.
 
I never expected the Russian military to appear so inept. I mean, they’ve never been known for their finesse. But this was a surprise.

Army Group South would agree.

Also, today I learned the Kiev Pocket and encirclement of 4 or 5 Soviet armies was called the "Kiev Strategic Defensive Operation." Looks like Putin is keeping the tradition alive with garbage names to cover failures.
 
Maybe not the specific objectives…but CIA had indications pointing to full invasion of Ukraine proper last winter. That’s why Burns went to Moscow in November, (a very rare move for a CIA director) ostensibly to warn about the troop buildup…but I’d wager he knew a lot more about Putin’s intentions even back then.
To my untrained ( and very nearsighted) eyes, it looks for once our intel was about close as this stuff gets. Usually telling everyone in advance what you have would seem like a bad idea, but this time, it played out pretty damn well. There's still plenty of time to screw things up, of course...
 
Yeah, if we were doing this, there wouldn't be a single Ukrainian plane flying after day 1 or 2. I also cannot believe the Russians didn't destroy the Ukrainian power and telecommunications grid.

From what I understand, and I may be misinformed, a single EA-18G can degrade the telecommunications capability of like the entire east coast of the United States, and wipe out the GPS navigation capabilities in a similarly sized region. This happens occasionally during training, and NOTAMs are sent out for basically the entire east coast. Does Russia not have this capability, or is just choosing not to use it? It seems like what I was taught about the electronic capabilities of the Russians was vastly overestimated.

Oddly enough, here's a video explaining the current deployments of the -18G and a capabilities brief.


Anyone interested in Naval aviation should check out Ward's channel. Retired F-14 RIO, Academy grad, some of his classmates went on to Flag rank and he interviews them, history, etc. Just a great channel all around.
 
I figured it was going to be a maximum use of resources for limited aims, aka Gulf War I. Take all of Donbas and maybe a bit more along limited axis of advance and not 10...That is what a rational actor would do. But again, not a rational actor anymore. He also deployed thousands of conscripts that didn't know where they were. Then stupidity of unsupported, far forward, contested airborne operations.
Agree.
I knew Russia was going in when they made Kamela the person in charge.
Like others I thought capturing Donbas, declare victory, annex Donbas into Russia.
 
So I'm not going to share the photos here, but images are coming out of Bucha, Ukraine that are clearly war crimes.

Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.

Early accounts are saying Checen fighters were in that area, and may have executed 100s of people.


Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre, city strewn with bodies
Saw them. It's very bad. And no one will ever see a jail cell for it either.
 
Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.
I saw those; I had the appropriate reaction. These days though…I believe the pics are legit, of course they are. But I’m becoming so jaded I find it difficult not to at least ask myself if I should doubt their validity.
 
Last edited:
So I'm not going to share the photos here, but images are coming out of Bucha, Ukraine that are clearly war crimes.

Multiple civilians corpses, shot in the head, with zip-tied hands behind them.

Early accounts are saying Checen fighters were in that area, and may have executed 100s of people.


Ukraine accuses Russia of massacre, city strewn with bodies

Russian state media has been pushing the Chechen fighter angle...to create fear that they'll rape, pillage and massacre civilians. There was even a report that Chechen special forces had been sent into Kyiv to assassinate Zelenskyy.

At the beginning of the conflict we saw stories of Ukrainians scolding Russian troops, joking with them about running out of gas, etc. There was some tentative civility. There's just fucking raw hatred now.
 
Russian state media has been pushing the Chechen fighter angle...to create fear that they'll rape, pillage and massacre civilians. There was even a report that Chechen special forces had been sent into Kyiv to assassinate Zelenskyy.

At the beginning of the conflict we saw stories of Ukrainians scolding Russian troops, joking with them about running out of gas, etc. There was some tentative civility. There's just fucking raw hatred now.
According to this report, it was Russians, not Chechen fighters, in Bucha:
I find it interesting that Ukraine has the names, ranks, and passport info of the Russian soldiers that were that were there. How would they know that? They claim an Anonymous hack exposed the info. Interesting.

The pictures were horrific and are illiciting the expected response. However, given all the disinformation we've seen so far, I'm still a bit cautious about making too many conclusions just yet.

Kind of interesting info in re: to Russia's population as it relates to their military, particularly conscripts:
 
Last edited:
According to this report, it was Russians, not Chechen fighters, in Bucha:

Yeah, I didn’t say that.

I’m just saying Russian media is using Chechen involvement to ramp up the fear based on the reputation Kadyrov’s guys earned (justly or unjustly) in the Crimea—as the Baba Yagas who castrate prisoners for fun.
 
Yeah, I didn’t say that.

I’m just saying Russian media is using Chechen involvement to ramp up the fear based on the reputation Kadyrov’s guys earned (justly or unjustly) in the Crimea—as the Baba Yagas who castrate prisoners for fun.
Oh, I got ya. 👍
 
Back
Top