Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Blizzard

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In re: to attrition, I agree. I read a report the other day where the Ukrainians they're losing 200 troops per day. Russia appears to be doing at least the same. But, as noted in the post above, the Russians simply have more bodies to lose...and apparently willing to do so.

The ADD general public seems to be moving on to the next shiny object as well, which doesn't help the Ukrainians either.
 

Marauder06

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In re: to attrition, I agree. I read a report the other day where the Ukrainians they're losing 200 troops per day. Russia appears to be doing at least the same. But, as noted in the post above, the Russians simply have more bodies to lose...and apparently willing to do so.

The ADD general public seems to be moving on to the next shiny object as well, which doesn't help the Ukrainians either.
Nope. And that's why at the end of the day, the person (or, at the nation-state level, the people) ultimately responsible for your safety and security is... you. You can't count on other .govs helping you in any meaningful way against other .govs, you can't count on your government to protect you from your fellow citizens, or from itself.
 

pardus

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SITREP 14JUN2022

“EUROPE NEWS
JUNE 14, 2022 / 01:37 AM
No way out for Ukrainians in embattled city as Russian forces destroy last bridge
KYIV (Reuters) -Russian forces cut off all routes for evacuating citizens from the eastern Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk by destroying the last bridge linking it to a Ukrainian held city on the other side of the river, a Ukrainian official said.
Russian troops were “trying to gain a foothold in the central part of city”, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday in its daily roundup of the conflict in various parts of the country.
“The situation in Sievierodonetsk is extremely aggravated - the Russians are destroying high-rise buildings and Azot,” Serhiy Gaidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said in a post on Telegram. A day earlier he said hundreds of civilians were sheltering in the grounds of the Azot chemical plant, which had been shelled by Russian forces.
Ukraine has issued increasingly urgent calls for more Western heavy weapons to help defend Sievierodonetsk, which Kyiv says could hold the key to the battle for the eastern Donbas region and the course of the war, now in its fourth month.
On Monday Gaidai had said on social media that some 70% of the city was under enemy control, and the destruction of the last bridge across the river to the twin city of Lysychansk meant any civilians still in Sievierodonetsk were trapped, and it was impossible to deliver humanitarian supplies.
The latest Ukrainian military situation report was filled with forboding over Russian forces building up in several parts of the Donbas.
It reported the enemy was “creating conditions for the development of the offensive on Sloviansk”, and an offensive on the towns of Lyman, Yampil and Siversk - all west of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Late on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the battle for the eastern Donbas would go down as one of the most brutal in European history. The region, comprising the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, is claimed by Russian separatists.
“For us, the price of this battle is very high. It is just scary,” he said.
“We draw the attention of our partners daily to the fact that only a sufficient number of modern artillery for Ukraine will ensure our advantage.”
Russia’s main goal is to protect Donetsk and Luhansk, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, after the leader of one of the separatist regions asked for additional forces from Moscow.
Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks and 1,000 drones among other heavy weapons, Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Monday.
Moscow issued the latest of several recent reports saying it had destroyed U.S. and European arms and equipment.
Russia’s defence ministry said high-precision air-based missiles had struck near the railway station in Udachne northwest of Donetsk, hitting equipment that had been delivered to Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine’s interior ministry on Telegram said that Udachne had been hit by a Russian strike overnight Sunday into Monday, without mentioning whether weapons had been targeted.
Moscow has criticised the United States and other nations for sending Ukraine weapons and has threatened to strike new targets if the West supplied long-range missiles.
The European Commission will recommend granting Ukraine official status as an EU candidate country, Politico reported late on Monday, citing several unnamed officials.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Saturday that the EU executive’s opinion on Ukraine’s request to join would be ready by the end of this week.
MARIUPOL AGAIN?
Russia’s RIA news agency quoted a pro-Moscow separatist spokesperson Eduard Basurin as saying Ukrainian troops were effectively cut off in Sievierodonetsk and should surrender or die.
The situation risked becoming like Mariupol, “with a large pocket of Ukrainian defenders cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian troops”, according to Damien Magrou, spokesperson for the International Legion for the Defence of Ukraine that has had forces in Sievierodonetsk.
During the fall of Mariupol last month, hundreds of civilians and badly wounded Ukrainian soldiers were trapped for weeks in the Azovstal steelworks.
Russia has denied targeting civilians in what it calls a “special operation” to restore Russian security and “denazify” its neighbour.
Ukraine and its Western allies call this a baseless pretext for an invasion which has killed thousands of civilians and raised fears of wider conflict in Europe.
More than 5 million people have fled and the world has been hit by a food and energy crisis, dividing Western nations over how to handle it.
After failing to take the capital Kyiv following the Feb. 24 invasion, Moscow focused on expanding control in the Donbas, where pro-Russian separatists have held territory since 2014. Russia has also tried to capture more of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.
“The entire front is being subjected to constant shelling,” Donetsk regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko told Ukrainian TV on Monday evening.
The towns of Maryinka, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar were hit in the coal-producing belt and Avdiivka, home to a big coking plant, he said.
Officials in the Russian-backed separatist-controlled Donetsk region said at least three people, including a child, were killed and 18 were wounded by Ukrainian shelling that hit a market in Donetsk city.
The Donetsk News Agency showed pictures of burning stalls at the central Maisky market and several bodies on the ground. The news agency said 155-mm calibre NATO-standard artillery munitions hit parts of the region on Monday.
Russian news agencies reported a shell had fallen on amaternity hospital in Donetsk, triggering a fire andprompting staff to send patients into the basement.
Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There has been no immediate reaction from Kyiv to the reports.”
 

Gunz

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“We draw the attention of our partners daily to the fact that only a sufficient number of modern artillery for Ukraine will ensure our advantage.”

First anti-tank missiles, now it's artillery to ensure advantage. Seems to be a retrograde dynamic here. What's next, muskets and sabres? Even more surprising to me than the logistics ineptitude, that a "modern" European war between a so-called Superpower and former Soviet-bloc country has come down to--as @pardus has pointed out and the dispatch confirms--this 1918 style of warfare.
 
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RackMaster

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How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off? They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals. I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.
 

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The US approved...what was, it? 40 billion USD in aid? That's a LOT of equipment...

...that the sky doesn't magically shit on Kyiv. And 40 billion in all forms of aid also doesn't magically show up at ports and airfields to ship to the Ukraine. I'm pro-Ukraine (more like I'm anti-Russia to be honest), but they need to understand nations could approve a trillion USD in aid and that stuff won't suddenly appear. They can scream for more of x, y, and z, but we've agreed to fund those materials. What we can't do is download tanks out of the cloud like nudes of your mom. (BTW, that makes for a big cloud)

I don't know if UA has paid attention, but we've kinda' fought a 20 year war where airlift was used extensively. Those plans and crews are tired, overworked, and at some point need a break. By that I mean, max effort flights to send aid to another nation might not be on TRANSCOM's to do list. Plenty of civilian cargo companies will step up, but that too takes money. How much of that 40 billion is going to Kalita Air, Evergreen...whoever flies 747's that can properly secure equipment? Those flights aren't cheap and those companies have other clients.

You know what could carry a lot of equipment? An An-225 which the Ukraine....aww, that's right. They left the world's largest airlifter in range of Soviet aircraft after several month's of intelligence and buildup pointing to a war. Dumbasses.

I'm starting to think neither side in this war knows a damn thing about logistics.
 

AWP

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How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off? They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals. I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.

(Friedrich Paulus has entered the chat)
 

Marauder06

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How many times do the Ukrainian's have to lose significant troop losses, after being encircled or cut off? They seem to have a serious misunderstanding of the existence of tactical withdrawals. I get it, they don't want to give up territory but when their forces are dwindling, seemingly fast; losing that many troops doesn't make sense.
This is tactically disruptive but I think it makes strategic sense. They are much stronger in defensive positions, they can delay Russia's strategic plans, prolong the conflict, and make the Russians bleed. Since this is a war for territorial gains, there is a very real possibility that anything they give up might be lost to them forever in the eventual negotiated peace.

Plus, when the Ukrainian defenders eventually get wiped out (or, more likely, surrender) there is a fresh batch of real & imagined martyrs to feed the news cycle and keep the short-attention-span public focused on the war.
 

RackMaster

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This is tactically disruptive but I think it makes strategic sense. They are much stronger in defensive positions, they can delay Russia's strategic plans, prolong the conflict, and make the Russians bleed. Since this is a war for territorial gains, there is a very real possibility that anything they give up might be lost to them forever in the eventual negotiated peace.

Plus, when the Ukrainian defenders eventually get wiped out (or, more likely, surrender) there is a fresh batch of real & imagined martyrs to feed the news cycle and keep the short-attention-span public focused on the war.

At the start of the war, I'd agree but after the loss of the Azov and if current daily losses are true. They can't afford these tactics any longer. They are inevitable giving up territory and losing large quantities of troops, at once.
 

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You don't want to pay for the same land twice, but you also can't readily replace men and material, especially in the Ukraine's case. UA's playing a dangerous game trying to hold on to land, but unless they have an assembly line of Jango Fetts, they will run out of people before equipment.
 

Marauder06

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War is ultimately a contest of competing wills. The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period. Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired (or Putin dies) and they go home. I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now: strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out. It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.
 

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War is ultimately a contest of competing wills. The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period. Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired (or Putin dies) and they go home. I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now: strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out. It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.
I don't disagree but, in terms of will, I continue to be a bit dumbfounded, if not impressed (for lack of a better word) at Russia's commitment to throwing bodies at this conflict. Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.
 

AWP

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Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.

I think years of indoctrination and Putin’s near iron grip on the country guarantee support. Plus, the propaganda about Nazis and tying that message to The Great Patriotic War coupled with a culture which throws bodies at the problem regardless of the costs…

Russians are predisposed to being controlled by a dictator.
 

Jaknight

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Well isn’t this the same nation that lost
I don't disagree but, in terms of will, I continue to be a bit dumbfounded, if not impressed (for lack of a better word) at Russia's commitment to throwing bodies at this conflict. Support at home appears strong (or at least strong enough) as well.
Well isn’t this the same nation who lost 20 million to the Germans and kept fighting? I think the Russians will gladly keep throwing bodies into the grinder till they win or lose.
 

pardus

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You don't want to pay for the same land twice, but you also can't readily replace men and material, especially in the Ukraine's case. UA's playing a dangerous game trying to hold on to land, but unless they have an assembly line of Jango Fetts, they will run out of people before equipment.
The Ukrainians are actually turning away thousands of recruits, mainly due to a lack of being able to equip and train them, but for now they are doing ok for bodies. That said, the Russians have a lot more, and an even greater amount of things that make the bodies hit the floor.
 

Gunz

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War is ultimately a contest of competing wills. The Ukrainians are showing that they still have the will to fight, and to fight hard, and to sustain losses over a prolonged period. Like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can win by simply not losing until the superpower gets tired (or Putin dies) and they go home. I think theirs is the correct long-term strategy for now: strongpoint cities and make the Russians clear them out. It inflicts losses on Russians, inevitably gets noncombatants killed (good for propaganda purposes) and plays to Ukrainians' strengths in terms of small unit tactics and anti-armor weaponry.

True...but the trick with winning by simply not losing is to stay alive long enough to win. Right now it's a straight-up slugging match. How long can Ukrainians stand the pummeling by superior forces before they're either beaten or they adopt hit n run, hide n wait like the NVA/VC/Taliban?
 
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Marauder06

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True...but the trick with winning by simply not losing is to stay alive long enough to win. Right now it's a straight-up slugging match. How long can Ukrainians stand the pummeling by superior forces before they're either beaten or they adopt hit n run, hide n wait like the NVA/VC/Taliban?
The Ukrainians have everything they need to win against the Russians:

1) will to fight
2) support of a major world power (in their case, several world powers)
3) sanctuary in nearby secure areas, where they can rest, refit, resupply, and move fighters in ad infinatum.
 
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