Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Andoni

Verified Military
Joined
Jun 3, 2017
Messages
542
Location
CONUS
being that being removed from the arms game so long had essentially dried up any contacts or connections he would have had to utilize, making him worthless in that world.
He's going to be back in the game as soon as he gets done fucking his wife/girlfriend/mistress.

It's a lifetime occupation.

I think whomever analyzed this (obviously not saying you, @Cookie_ - is woefully out of touch with arms movement and
international violent criminals.

He's returning with bells on. During his incarceration his "shit" was either being tended to, or "stolen" and either scenerio requires his attention, and only an idiot would not rebuild

The people supervising his SME's may believe he is "isolated" and he may appear isolated, but that's because he's better then the people who think this is accurate. They know it. They just haven't figured out how.

One thing I don't think people get is, that international violent criminals, warlords, terrorists, dictators-- they are driven and successful in being terrible for a reason.

Al-Shabbab in Africa, when they eventually get into the "big" terror circuit- won't care about how long it takes him to get whatever. Money talks.

Edited to add El-Shabbab, an Al-Queda affiliate
 
Last edited:

Gunz

Combined Action
Verified Military
Joined
Jun 29, 2014
Messages
7,764
He's going to be back in the game as soon as he gets done fucking his wife/girlfriend/mistress.

It's a lifetime occupation.

I think whomever analyzed this (obviously not saying you, @Cookie_ - is woefully out of touch with arms movement and
international violent criminals.

He's returning with bells on. During his incarceration his "shit" was either being tended to, or "stolen" and either scenerio requires his attention, and only an idiot would not rebuild

The people supervising his SME's may believe he is "isolated" and he may appear isolated, but that's because he's better then the people who think this is accurate. They know it. They just haven't figured out how.

One thing I don't think people get is, that international violent criminals, warlords, terrorists, dictators-- they are driven and successful in being terrible for a reason.

Al-Shabbab in Africa, when they eventually get into the "big" terror circuit- won't care about how long it takes him to get whatever. Money talks.

Edited to add El-Shabbab, an Al-Queda affiliate

He's got so many connections to the GRU, the Russian military and Putin's government--not to mention foreign actors worldwide...this is just a bump in his road.
 

ThunderHorse

Verified Military
Joined
Feb 22, 2012
Messages
4,943
Location
The Big D
I don't really care about Griner, but I will say this seems to be a situation of a celebrity cause actually helping someone who needs it, since Paul Whelan is being freed as well.

As best I can tell, Bout being released in a prisoner swap has been talked about since at least 2020; the thought being that being removed from the arms game so long had essentially dried up any contacts or connections he would have had to utilize, making him worthless in that world.

That's an all time bad take for anyone thinking he'll be out of the game. He'll either be killed immediately or embraced and will get back at it like @Andoni said.

Hope is neither a method or a course of action, and this administration seems to operate on it being so.
 

Andoni

Verified Military
Joined
Jun 3, 2017
Messages
542
Location
CONUS
It's almost like his incarceration was "just for show* and releasing him may cause more work for other people, but doesn't really matter. Weird.
 

Gunz

Combined Action
Verified Military
Joined
Jun 29, 2014
Messages
7,764
Putin must be hard-up for cannon fodder.

Wagner’s value to Putin has always been as a deployable “special” unit that can conduct FID and influence host nations (and whack their trouble-makers for them) while giving him deniability.

Maybe the Ukrainians can whack a few Wagners.
 

Cookie_

SOF Support
Joined
Dec 19, 2017
Messages
1,009
I have not heard that from my sources, can you post a link?

We know who he is (Vitaly Aroshanov, age 39), we know his cell #, passport #, his address, employment history (Repairman), and his family, so he won't disappear.
I don't think it's been confirmed yet, just lots of posts going around claiming as much
 

Gordus

Member
Joined
May 18, 2018
Messages
387
The World Needs Russia to Win the Conflict in Ukraine. Here’s Why?

Interesting take and I also desire peace, but I disagree that Russia should win. They never cared about "balance of power" and they'll just keep pushing, especialy if they succeed. It was always about dominance. Appropriate as many resources and territorries, establish as much foothold and influence, as many veins as physicaly possible. Be it in the Arctic, Black Sea, Syria or what other places they got their eyes on. I wish some people would stop acting like Russia didn't seek hegemony and was just a counter weight to Western ambitions. The denial is becoming very tiresome. A worse and mostly undesired alternative is what they are and have been to most neighbouring countries, for centuries now. I doubt, that reality and outside perceptoin of it, will change any time soon.
 
Top