Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[R.Caerbannog]

The Ukrainians are shooting down more missiles than are getting through to their targets. A lot of their chips are commercially purchased, including some from washing machines etc... but not for their high end equipment, a large percentage of those chips are US manufactured too, though they are not sold directly and this is being addressed by the US govt.
A friend of mine was doing a recce and was being harassed by artillery fire during this, they calculated that the Russians spent approx $200,000 to harass them and therefore considered it a win

They also burned through a lot of their stock in Syria.

The crazy thing about their war in Syria was they went with guided munitions at first until they started running out of those and then went...pre-WWII with their munitions. Barrel bombs and shit rolled out of the backs of helicopters. Their modern "dumb" bombs are also less accurate than their Western counterparts.

I sat on scope one day and watched a stream of TU-22's fly through our air stack over Mosul (fuckers, that was a nightmare) and then ripple off one cruise missile after another before yoinking a 180 to return to the Motherland. They did this several times a week and when that wasn't happening they launched cruise missiles out of the Caspian Sea.

Maybe their stuff was shit to begin with or maybe they used so much they are now cobbling together "guided" munitions? No telling with the Soviets.

Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.

I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.

 

[SpitfireV]

The thing with Rodman is that there was an emotional connection from KJU to him because of KJUs age and his love of basketball so he was welcomed there with open arms. Rodman doesn't have that in Russia so I wonder what kind of access or impact he can have.

 

[Locksteady]

Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.

I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.

Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.

Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.

If anything, Ukraine is fucked.

 

[AWP]

Between both your observations, I'm starting to wonder how much graft has hollowed out the Russian military. It almost seems like they're either lighting money on fire or going with the most inefficient Wile E. Coyote claptraps they can clobber together. Neither of their solutions are viable in terms of men, money, or equipment.

I think they might be fucked. If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.

If you look at Syria and now the Ukraine, you can see some similarities. An initial blitz with PGM's including the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets that slows to a trickle as the PGM inventory is depleted. Why? Could be a number of factors: corruption as you stated, decreased defense spending where munitions are concerned, loss of a skilled workforce in the aftermath of the 90's and early 2000's, Russia only budgeted for x number of munitions in the conflict...who knows.

I don't think their military is in good shape. It has the weight of numbers, but even those are suspect given the apparent quality of soldiers they are sending to the Ukraine. Putin wouldn't sandbag either, especially now that his 48 hour war is going on 3-4 months? His legacy and prestige are on the line, but they are hanging on to some massive stockpile of PGM's to defend their country? Maybe. It's kind of bizarre.

 

[Gordus]

... If I was a neighboring country with good demographics and a competent military, I'd be looking at slicing some pieces off of Russia.

Who though, China ? Fas as I can see, that's the only neighbouring country, that could possibly have a chance. Unless the Finns resurrect Häyhä. That could level the playing field.

 

[RackMaster]

Explosions like this are so common now, I'd say this has a lot to do with lack of modern munitions from the Russians.

Explosions rock Donbas as Russian ammo dump goes up in flames

 

[pardus]

FSB names Ukrainian Natalia Vovk as the perpetrator of the murder of journalist Dugina

 

[pardus]

Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.

Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.

If anything, Ukraine is fucked.

You are quite wrong, Ukraine is not fucked, Russia cannot take Ukraine. If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order. Yes Russia is massively powerful, yes Russia can, will and is making Ukraine suffer through loss of blood, equipment, infrastructure and money, but the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again.
Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.

 

[AWP]

You are quite wrong, Ukraine is not fucked, Russia cannot take Ukraine. If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order. Yes Russia is massively powerful, yes Russia can, will and is making Ukraine suffer through loss of blood, equipment, infrastructure and money, but the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again.
Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.

The “tyranny of distance” and trash logistics would see the Soviets fail with even a moderate defense in the Ukraine.

I still think you’re (foreigners in general) wrong for being there, but y’all are kicking ass and I respect the hell out of that.

 

[pardus]

Waterborne air defense…

 

[pardus]

The “tyranny of distance” and trash logistics would see the Soviets fail with even a moderate defense in the Ukraine.

I still think you’re (foreigners in general) wrong for being there, but y’all are kicking ass and I respect the hell out of that.

Why do you think it’s wrong?

 

[Locksteady]

If Russian troops managed to occupy Ukraine they themselves would be bleed dry in short order.

Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living.

the will of the Ukrainian people is indomitable, they simply won’t allow another Holodomor type genocide from those dirty Russian bastards again.
Russia has proven to be extremely incompetent in war fighting, their logistics are pathetic at best, their Soviet doctrine is beyond flawed and extremely vulnerable.

I think this is a popular sentiment that is reflected in how badly Putin underestimated the resistance he'd face - and in my assessment his underestimation was understandable given his hubris along with how handily he took Crimea and Georgia before that. However, Russian 'doctrine' hasn't kept Putin from making critical changes to his strategy after those setbacks, and his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.

 

[Gunz]

FSB names Ukrainian Natalia Vovk as the perpetrator of the murder of journalist Dugina

Interesting. Here's the Tass article. Initially I'm skeptical. But who knows. If true, and if Dugin's daughter was the target, it makes sense to send a female principle...but I find it hard to believe that she and her daughter would be sent in alone without a surveillance and technical team. There's more to this than meets the eye.

FSB solves Darya Dugina’s murder, masterminded by Ukrainian secret services

 

[Gunz]

Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living...
... and his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.

Not sure I agree with all of that. I think Ukraine could keep up a fairly robust insurgency for many years with the support of NATO and friends without direct superpower intervention. And I think an insurgency with continued outside support could exist amid economic distress caused by Russia. Even if Russia controls many of the supply routes, there is still a very significant length of eastern Ukraine bordered by NATO.

I believe the potential for continued resistance exists, even if existing only as a protracted guerrilla campaign.

 

[AWP]

Why do you think it’s wrong?

I went over this how many ever pages ago. I respect, and encourage, the Ukrainian's fight against the Soviets. The Soviets as we know them are a subservient people with a vile leader and the sooner they recognize they are actual human beings the better. I am less pro-Ukraine and more anti-Soviet. I think pro-Western foreign fighters complicate the issue because of the (my terminology here is weak) the "state department" or political aspect of things. I think the US has more to gain by supplying the fight than it does by supporting US citizens who made an individual choice to participate.

I think the cause is noble but the repercussions are not.

I'm in a weird place in that I respect the hell out of what you and are others are doing while also believing you are wrong to participate. Tactical picture you are right, strategic position you are wrong, but your individual conviction and bravery cannot be denied.

 

[Blizzard]

The numbers have always been staggering but if there's even a sliver of accuracy to this :
Russia Has Suffered Up to 80,000 Military Casualties in Ukraine, Pentagon Says

All in just 7 months.

 

[AWP]

The numbers have always been staggering but if there's even a sliver of accuracy to this :
Russia Has Suffered Up to 80,000 Military Casualties in Ukraine, Pentagon Says

All in just 7 months.

4-5 divisions gone? Thanos snapped? The US has something like...20 maneuver divisions both Active and Guard? The Soviets have lost a quarter of our strength in the Ukraine? We have...12 Active duty divisions so the Soviets have lost about 40% of our Active force? Not in Europe, not taking Berlin, not taking Paris, but the Ukraine? Even if you take away the air force and navy casualties you are still looking at...4-ish divisions of soldiers?

WTF?

 

[SpitfireV]

I don't like that figure or statement for a couple of reasons. What are they defining as wounded? How can something be ballpack and not precise but they still have confidence?

 

[ThunderHorse]

Russia won't be 'fucked' - at least in terms of taking Ukraine.

Ukraine will be theirs because the US, much less Russian-oil dependent NATO nations, has no remotely good material reason to do anything more to support Ukraine than provide financial munitions support, and because of this Russia will win through perseverance and continual attrition of Ukrainian forces.

If anything, Ukraine is fucked.

Lol wtf I just read. You ok?

 

[SpitfireV]

Come on mate.