Ukraine - Russia Conflict

AWP said:
4-5 divisions gone? Thanos snapped? The US has something like...20 maneuver divisions both Active and Guard? The Soviets have lost a quarter of our strength in the Ukraine? We have...12 Active duty divisions so the Soviets have lost about 40% of our Active force? Not in Europe, not taking Berlin, not taking Paris, but the Ukraine? Even if you take away the air force and navy casualties you are still looking at...4-ish divisions of soldiers?

WTF?
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Given the men and material losses of the soviets. They are unlikely to step over the border again for anything for awhile. They've had major issues with recruitment. Were hauling veterans in and offering 4k/month to re-enlist and report to the front from places like Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar. (And no one was taking the offer to volunteer, 4k US in places like Krasnoyarsk is a LOT of effing cash) Units in Far East military district have been rotated forward. Generally Russian Army units are racially homogenous based on region. So you have Asian Russians effectively on the front lines of a European Russian conflict.

Enlistment age, conscription laws, retirement age have all been changed. They are pretty much unable to recruit anyone. Then think about how many Chechnya Rosgovardiya units and Russian Rosgovardiya units have also been deployed to Ukraine.

The idea that Ukraine is fucked doesn't work with the maths that are going on. Ukraine to rebuild will need to retake its Industrial capacity which has either been destroyed completely or taken. Ukraine will rebuild it because that land is her future. Russia can't rebuild or hold it as the costs will continue to mount. Ukraine has tens of thousands of Ukrainian and Foreign volunteers to fight a "noble" cause. The only thing holding them back is the ability to fully organize and arm cohesive units. But they also don't need to put a division in the field tomorrow either.

But Russia needs to find a few divisions. . .
 
AWP said:
If you look at Syria and now the Ukraine, you can see some similarities. An initial blitz with PGM's including the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets that slows to a trickle as the PGM inventory is depleted. Why? Could be a number of factors: corruption as you stated, decreased defense spending where munitions are concerned, loss of a skilled workforce in the aftermath of the 90's and early 2000's, Russia only budgeted for x number of munitions in the conflict...who knows.

I don't think their military is in good shape. It has the weight of numbers, but even those are suspect given the apparent quality of soldiers they are sending to the Ukraine. Putin wouldn't sandbag either, especially now that his 48 hour war is going on 3-4 months? His legacy and prestige are on the line, but they are hanging on to some massive stockpile of PGM's to defend their country? Maybe. It's kind of bizarre.
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Honestly, the collapse of the Russian military has been bizarre. At this point I'm wondering if they still have 40% PGM stocks remaining. Considering Ukraine is supposed to be a sideshow in getting to the real objectives, I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine is where Russia will wither and die.

Gordus said:
Who though, China ? Fas as I can see, that's the only neighbouring country, that could possibly have a chance. Unless the Finns resurrect Häyhä. That could level the playing field.
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I'm thinking Turkey, if Syria can ever be quelled.

China has been gutting Russia on tech and trade for a while. They also don't need an army to invade when they've been slowly moving their population over the border and their companies reap Russian natural resources.
 
R.Caerbannog said:
Honestly, the collapse of the Russian military has been bizarre. At this point I'm wondering if they still have 40% PGM stocks remaining. Considering Ukraine is supposed to be a sideshow in getting to the real objectives, I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine is where Russia will wither and die.
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First of all, excellent 2015 article describing the situation then and fairly well-predicting what to expect. Have a 'Like'. :-)

Secondly, assuming we both agree the 'real objectives' are securing the 9 land access points mentioned in the article, Russia doesn't even need all of them to control Ukraine or expand into Moldova, which on a land security basis (one of the primary security concerns for Russia) is the immediate priority before even considering trying to control all the other land access points.

Thirdly, Russia is far from 'withering and dying'. The sanctions have contributed to the rubles becoming the best-performing currency this year due to Russia's monetary policies and the increased trade it has cultivated with its non-sanctioning trade partners. Along with this, Russia's debtors are willing to hold out until US/NATO-member sanctions preventing Russia from actually paying them are lifted because they realize the US/NATO-member sanctions are temporary and will be lifted the moment they become too inconvenient for those countries to sustain for their national/multinational interests.

This breaking point may come sooner for Russian oil/natural gas-dependent NATO countries as the frost approaches.

house stark winter is coming GIF
 
Locksteady said:
Perhaps, but ultimately Russia does not need to occupy the entire territory in order to control its economy and, by extension, the Ukrainians who rely on it to make a living.

I think this is a popular sentiment that is reflected in how badly Putin underestimated the resistance he'd face - and in my assessment his underestimation was understandable given his hubris along with how handily he took Crimea and Georgia before that. However, Russian 'doctrine' hasn't kept Putin from making critical changes to his strategy after those setbacks, and his pivot away from targeting major metro areas and toward controlling and holding key natural resource areas ($12.4 trillion worth) and supply routes will cause Ukraine to eventually crumble absent a serious superpower intervention.
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At this point you sound like a Russian troll, but whatever floats your boat. Putin and his Soviet hoard failed to take Kyiv, they underestimated the Ukrainian's and others (maybe not surprising after Crimea's annexation), their logistics failed and they were forced to withdrawal.
Yes the loss of resources is a significant problem, and Ukraine's economy has or will shrink an estimated 20%. Putin isn't doing a very good job and his brilliant new strategy though has he? The vast majority of the Ukrainian resources in Ukrainian control are within a short distance from the front line, why hasn't he just rolled forward and taken them? Because he's weak and incompetent, yes, not only is Putin a major war criminal, he's also a little bitch.
He was never stronger than he was 24 FEB 2022, that was his best chance and the Ukrainians stopped him. He will not be that strong again, ever. Does that mean he will loose? I don't know, but Ukraine has the will and is getting stronger, and it has some steadfast allies now that will never abandon them, sadly the USA, Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, France cannot be counted among them.
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Gunz said:
Interesting. Here's the Tass article. Initially I'm skeptical. But who knows. If true, and if Dugin's daughter was the target, it makes sense to send a female principle...but I find it hard to believe that she and her daughter would be sent in alone without a surveillance and technical team. There's more to this than meets the eye.

FSB solves Darya Dugina’s murder, masterminded by Ukrainian secret services
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I don't believe she was the target, and I don't believe a thing the FSB/Russia says.
AWP said:
I went over this how many ever pages ago. I respect, and encourage, the Ukrainian's fight against the Soviets. The Soviets as we know them are a subservient people with a vile leader and the sooner they recognize they are actual human beings the better. I am less pro-Ukraine and more anti-Soviet. I think pro-Western foreign fighters complicate the issue because of the (my terminology here is weak) the "state department" or political aspect of things. I think the US has more to gain by supplying the fight than it does by supporting US citizens who made an individual choice to participate.

I think the cause is noble but the repercussions are not.

I'm in a weird place in that I respect the hell out of what you and are others are doing while also believing you are wrong to participate. Tactical picture you are right, strategic position you are wrong, but your individual conviction and bravery cannot be denied.
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Totally understand, and respect your view.
CQB said:
I'll wait that out for more info, it seems too convenient. The media here mentioned an internal dissident group.
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Yeah it's early days yet, we'll see what happens in the weeks to come, I don't think Puty boy is as secure as he'd like to think he is though.
 
pardus said:
At this point you sound like a Russian troll, but whatever floats your boat. Putin and his Soviet hoard failed to take Kyiv, they underestimated the Ukrainian's and others (maybe not surprising after Crimea's annexation), their logistics failed and they were forced to withdrawal.
Yes the loss of resources is a significant problem, and Ukraine's economy has or will shrink an estimated 20%. Putin isn't doing a very good job and his brilliant new strategy though has he? The vast majority of the Ukrainian resources in Ukrainian control are within a short distance from the front line, why hasn't he just rolled forward and taken them? Because he's weak and incompetent, yes, not only is Putin a major war criminal, he's also a little bitch.
He was never stronger than he was 24 FEB 2022, that was his best chance and the Ukrainians stopped him. He will not be that strong again, ever. Does that mean he will loose? I don't know, but Ukraine has the will and is getting stronger, and it has some steadfast allies now that will never abandon them, sadly the USA, Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, France cannot be counted among them.
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I don't believe she was the target, and I don't believe a thing the FSB/Russia says.

Totally understand, and respect your view.

Yeah it's early days yet, we'll see what happens in the weeks to come, I don't think Puty boy is as secure as he'd like to think he is though.
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Cheers @pardus so given the Russian penchants for disinformation a mum & daughter team who exfil in a mini minor…🤨
 
I’m interested to see more on this. I’m not familiar with how most other countries treat their active duty, so them saying he wasn’t on active duty makes me wonder if he was on a reserve status, or if they just mean he wasn’t there on official business.

Statement on reports of death of New Zealand soldier

Edit: The hot link didn’t populate like I thought it would, so it says that a New Zealand soldier was killed in Ukraine.
 
He was on leave without pay which is what I think they mean. I suspect Defence is like other government jobs for LWOP which means you're not actually technically working for them (ie you hand over all your IDd and uniforms and kit) and they only keep your job open for a certain period (usually 3 months though NZDF might have different details in their contracts).
 
SpitfireV said:
He was on leave without pay which is what I think they mean. I suspect Defence is like other government jobs for LWOP which means you're not actually technically working for them (ie you hand over all your IDd and uniforms and kit) and they only keep your job open for a certain period (usually 3 months though NZDF might have different details in their contracts).
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Thank you for that.
 
I'm not teaching this semester, but I guest-lectured a strategic studies seminar yesterday that happened to be a lesson on international relations, which is what I went to grad school for.

We discussed the theories of realism, liberalism, marxism, constructivism, and feminism. I also briefly went over my (extremely limited) understanding of Dugin's "Fourth Theory" of IR, because his name came up during the Current Events portion of the class.

I was listening to various Facebook podcasts yesterday when I was working on my Jeep, and someone (Glen Beck? I don't know, the Jeep was being stubborn so I was out there for a long time and listened to a lot of different 'casts) wondered if the Dugin assassination attempt might turn into an Archduke Ferdinand moment.

I'm thinking about writing and article on that. Any thoughts?
 
Marauder06 said:
I'm not teaching this semester, but I guest-lectured a strategic studies seminar yesterday that happened to be a lesson on international relations, which is what I went to grad school for.

We discussed the theories of realism, liberalism, marxism, constructivism, and feminism. I also briefly went over my (extremely limited) understanding of Dugin's "Fourth Theory" of IR, because his name came up during the Current Events portion of the class.

I was listening to various Facebook podcasts yesterday when I was working on my Jeep, and someone (Glen Beck? I don't know, the Jeep was being stubborn so I was out there for a long time and listened to a lot of different 'casts) wondered if the Dugin assassination attempt might turn into an Archduke Ferdinand moment.

I'm thinking about writing and article on that. Any thoughts?
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No thoughts but I would love to see why you think that.
 
Polar Bear said:
No thoughts but I would love to see why you think that.
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About Dugin-as-Ferdinand?

I'm still mulling it over, but the premise is that Archduke Ferdinand was someone that few people knew about, and fewer cared about, but the terrorist attack against him set in motion a series of events that eventually lead to WWI. Basically, it was a premise that motivated many of the world powers of the time to mobilize for, and go to, war.

So, a potential future COA: Russian (correctly or incorrectly, it doesn't really matter) blames Ukraine for the death of Dugin's daughter, who is already being lionized by the Russian press. They escalate in a series of provocative ways that causes a NATO country, let's say Poland, to get into it with the Russians, thus triggering Article 5 of the NATO charter and bringing the big dogs head to head.

^that's the basic idea. Again, not mine originally, but maybe interesting enough for future discussion.
 

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