Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Locksteady]

Attaboy, Amb. Melnyk!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576977000178208768

 

[AWP]

I'm starting to wonder what Russia will run out of first: men or tanks. Doing some digging, the tank numbers (total before the war and total lost in the war) are all over the place, but you could make a case that a tenth of all tanks have been lost and well over that if you look at active tanks vs. those in storage. A tank in storage needs work to be operational...and time is finite. Some of those stored tanks will never run again AND you need them for parts thanks to sanctions hindering your ability to make new spares.

At some point Russia's operational units will be paper tigers if their armored vehicles are sent to the Ukraine to recoup losses. Russia's robbing Peter (or Pytor if you prefer) to pay Paul. Russia is flat out losing material faster than it can be replaced.

I don't know if his numbers are accurate, because this guy paints a pretty bleak picture of Soviet armor. Completely out of tanks in less than 3 years? I also hadn't considered the manpower issue: training and quality. Anyway, this guy has something like half of all active tanks being destroyed in the Ukraine.

 

[pardus]

Rory was a member of my old unit, though I didn’t know him. An American who I won’t name ( and I also didn’t know) will be pronounced KIA soon as well from what I’ve been told.
They died during a difficult but successful assault that ended with every man in the element being either KIA or WIA.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577652555340988424

 

[pardus]

I don't know if his numbers are accurate, because this guy paints a pretty bleak picture of Soviet armor. Completely out of tanks in less than 3 years? I also hadn't considered the manpower issue: training and quality. Anyway, this guy has something like half of all active tanks being destroyed in the Ukraine.

Starting to see a lot of T-64s on the battlefield now, I can't imagine it gives crews a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing they are using tanks that old, that were probably bought out of storage due to the newer/better tanks being destroyed.

 

[AWP]

Starting to see a lot of T-64s on the battlefield now, I can't imagine it gives crews a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing they are using tanks that old, that were probably bought out of storage due to the newer/better tanks being destroyed.

If Wikipedia can be believed, the T-64 is also rather complex to operate and maintain which led to the mass adoption of the T-72. Sure, some have been "modernized", but you still have a tank designed in the late 50's/ early 60's. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a bunch of them broken down on the side of the road before this year is out.

 

[AWP]

@pardus are y'all seeing a lot of tanks with reactive armor?

 

[pardus]

@pardus are y'all seeing a lot of tanks with reactive armor?

Yeah, but a lot of it is fake, filled with rubber, cardboard etc... or just empty. I don't know if they used to have reactive armour and it was pilfered, or there was never any installed. There is some real reactive armour out there, but not a lot in my experience.

 

[AWP]

Yeah, but a lot of it is fake, filled with rubber, cardboard etc... or just empty. I don't know if they used to have reactive armour and it was pilfered, or there was never any installed. There is some real reactive armour out there, but not a lot in my experience.

If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.

Also, stop misspelling "armor."

 

[pardus]

If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.

Also, stop misspelling "armor."

I know AT-4s are there, but I never saw one, we had the "new" M-72s, NLAWs, RPG-18s, the Spanish C-90.
Do not disparage the King's English you uncouth Colonial!

 

[JedisonsDad]

If you told me AT-4's were killing tanks, I wouldn't be surprised.

Also, stop misspelling "armor."

King’s English requires them to hold on to as many “U”s as possible, ever since they lost the last U to the U.S.

 

[SpitfireV]

I think that was more like "U can fuckin' have it then."

 

[amlove21]

I think that was more like "U can fuckin' have it then."

To quote Chris Brown- “these MF hating from outside the club… y’all can’t even get in!” Kidding, I don’t wanna talk about visas for 12 hours, dork.

And it wasn’t a ‘U’ y’all held, it was a permanent uppercase L.

 

[SpitfireV]

We weren't part of things then that's all someone else's L.

*dusts hands* Where's my fucking tea?

 

[Totentanz]

*dusts hands* Where's my fucking tea?

You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.

 

[AWP]

If only House of the Dragon had this level of writing.

 

[Marauder06]

You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.

You win the Internet for the day.

 

[Devildoc]

You can fish it out of the fucking harbor.

I just spit my coffee all over my laptop. Best post ever. I declare thee King Post.

 

[pardus]

Seems like a hell of a lot, I’d like to see some more verification of this.
The loss of gear when the Russians have to cross the Dnipro is going to be huge though as it’s basically going to be a Dunkirk situation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577951710592618496

 

[AWP]

Even at 25% those are unsustainable numbers for Team Orc.

 

[Devildoc]

A friend sent me this (brief) article: Maneuver Warfare

@pardus and anyone else; any sense that the Russians are doing a 'strategic withdrawal' to prepare for a massive counteroffensive/large-scale ambush? I have no idea.