Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Diamondback 2/2]

I would honestly say the last evolution of warfare that we saw like this, IMPO, would be WW1 with introduction of modern IDF and the machine gun. Granted UW aside, when we are talking large scale conventional forces, I can't think of anything that I can point to more shifting in warfare than that, that is comparable to what we are seeing now.

That said, lessons learned of WW1 we learned to fight in smaller dispersed units, warp speed into armor and the use of mobility. I would say that those lessons learned are still prevalent today. Smaller units, speed and mobility (not getting caught into opposing lines when possible) and a virtual armor to protect fixed positions. Where or how that comes into play is better left to the people in the know, working that problem.

For your basic grunt, these are super scary times.

 

[Gunz]

I don’t think “basic grunts” will have a place on the future battlefield. Unmanned applications will proliferate and eventually dominate.

 

[ThunderHorse]

You will always need someone to take and hold ground, how they do that is up for debate.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I don’t think “basic grunts” will have a place on the future battlefield. Unmanned applications will proliferate and eventually dominate.

I tend to agree with you as far as your "basic" (dare I say leg) infantry. However, I foresee a resurgence in in Airborne and Mech Infantry. If you view what's taken place in Ukraine, it's rapid pushes by both sides. They only real way to do that is with mechanized infantry and airborne assaults. Essentially use of airborne operation to prep for armor/mech advances.

Again, the mobility being the key to "boots on the ground" the problem is maintaining the fixed position once established. This is nothing different than WW2/Gulf1/OIF, We have and have maintained that capacity/capability. The problem isn't really the drone warfare while conducting the assault, it's the drone threat of fixed positions. I mean you established a patrol base, with some form of hardening, but your deny/disrupt patrols, your security sweep's, of known controlled areas of operations, is where IMPO your "basic grunt" becomes most vulnerable to the drone/digital threat.

Similar to the IED/VBIED threat of OIF/OEF, just in a battlefield that takes on another area of unknown, above, the major prob being the inexpensive and mass attack (swarm) capability being open sourced readily available.

Once you have the ground, we will always need to secure and maintain it. As in any other war, that is always where the biggest threats to our forces has been. Now it's gotten incredibly complicated and and dangerous. Where is we the US has enjoyed a fairly low death toll in recent years, our next war, is going to be incredibly different in numbers of loss. IDK if we solve that before it happens, or if our people are willing to deal with that level of loss of life. But I tend to feel we will mass produce Terminator type drones before we are willing to lose hundreds of thousands of people...

 

[CQB]

This is a great question- something I thought of during an earlier post (I think @talonlm ) asking about fallout from the intel agencies and other Russian NatSec agencies missing the drones and what the fallout would be, which is another great question.

I think something that plays in here is a bit of assuming that their best agencies are on par with ours. If the entire Russia/Ukraine war has shown me (personally) anything, it's that I feel I was a bit gaslit by our own IC and their estimations of military strengths and capabilities.

"Russia is a near peer! China is a pacing threat!" ... oh, word? Cause all the available information at my disposal leads me to believe that Russia is a gas station with nukes and a GDP less than Cali, Texas, and NY, with a military inventory that's 50 years old, completely devoid of innovation, and like 15 5th gen fighters.

Ukraine bought some drones off Amazon, flew them directly over Russian bases, and destroyed 30% of their fleet. The surprising thing about this isn't the "sophistication" of the Ukranian attack, it's the opposite. The astonishing thing is Russia's inability to stop the very obvious single tool Ukraine has to damage Russia.

So that's fun.

In short, it’s only a Middle Power.

 

[amlove21]

In short, it’s only a Middle Power.

Agree.

 

[Devildoc]

Word on the street is the A-50 AEW AC were airframes from which the Russians used parts as spares, and not active AC. No idea if this is true.

 

[Gordus]

Russian defense industry CEO's opinion on captured Western hardware.

A point that I always found interesting, was the streamlined amphibious capability, mainly to ford rivers. But I've read and heard that the Soviet vehicles needed hours or longer of preparation / "sealing" before they were able to perform such a task. That it was generally a very risky undertaking because so many things needed to go right, not least because of poor maintenance. Probably includes finding a proper spot in the first place, to be able to get back on land.

 

[AWP]

Russian defense industry CEO's opinion on captured Western hardware.

A point that I always found interesting, was the streamlined amphibious capability, mainly to ford rivers. But I've read and heard that the Soviet vehicles needed hours or longer of preparation / "sealing" before they were able to perform such a task. That it was generally a very risky undertaking because so many things needed to go right, not least because of poor maintenance. Probably includes finding a proper spot in the first place, to be able to get back on land.

We need to consider that the US vehicles were designed with US doctrine in mind. US armor/ mech infantry units have very robust engineering support, including mobile bridge laying equipment. Kind of apples and oranges between US and Russian designs across the board.

 

[amlove21]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1932223299347767372

 

[Gordus]

Bit late, but for ppl who may have missed this.

 

[amlove21]

Uh, welp...

American citizen killed in Russian attack on Kyiv, State Department confirms

 

[Cookie_]

Uh, welp...

American citizen killed in Russian attack on Kyiv, State Department confirms

Seems he was a 62 year old US citizen.

imagine he was an aid worker of some sort. Shit sucks.

 

[Gordus]

Casualties as of June 2025:

Ukraine:
Over 77,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 80,000 - 100,000.
Over 67,000 missing.
Over 400,000 wounded.

Total: Over 544,000 - 567,000

Russia:
Over 111,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 165,000 to 250,000.
Over 50,000 missing.
Over 750,000 wounded.

Total: Over 911,000 - 1.050.000

Sources for KIA and MIA figures:
For Ukraine: UA Losses Project
For Russia: Mediazona

Its probably not "millions" like Trump suggests right, but he isn't wrong about the scale of human tragedy.

 

[DA SWO]

Casualties as of June 2025:

Ukraine:
Over 77,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 80,000 - 100,000.
Over 67,000 missing.
Over 400,000 wounded.

Total: Over 544,000 - 567,000

Russia:
Over 111,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 165,000 to 250,000.
Over 50,000 missing.
Over 750,000 wounded.

Total: Over 911,000 - 1.050.000

Sources for KIA and MIA figures:
For Ukraine: UA Losses Project
For Russia: Mediazona

Its probably not "millions" like Trump suggests right, but he isn't wrong about the scale of human tragedy.

Does this include civilian casualties?

 

[Gordus]

Does this include civilian casualties?

Those are only military casualties. Yeah should have added that, my bad.

 

[amlove21]

Casualties as of June 2025:

Ukraine:
Over 77,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 80,000 - 100,000.
Over 67,000 missing.
Over 400,000 wounded.

Total: Over 544,000 - 567,000

Russia:
Over 111,000 confirmed by name KIA. Estimates range from 165,000 to 250,000.
Over 50,000 missing.
Over 750,000 wounded.

Total: Over 911,000 - 1.050.000

Sources for KIA and MIA figures:
For Ukraine: UA Losses Project
For Russia: Mediazona

Its probably not "millions" like Trump suggests right, but he isn't wrong about the scale of human tragedy.

Just from these numbers- it's 1.5M total casualties, is it not?

 

[DA SWO]

Those are only military casualties. Yeah should have added that, my bad.

1.6M, if you take the upper values, add how many civilian casualties?
So saying millions isn't a stretch.

 

[Gordus]

Just from these numbers- it's 1.5M total casualties, is it not?

1.6M, if you take the upper values, add how many civilian casualties?
So saying millions isn't a stretch.

For total casualties yeah, but Trump claims that millions were killed. I hope to God that ain't true, though I suspect there was just a misunderstanding maybe ? Perhaps he thought casualties meant deaths ? Idk, but I had that with ppl in the past.

According to OHCHR there were over 46,000 verified civilian casualties, but real numbers could be higher.

 

[Marauder06]

For total casualties yeah, but Trump claims that millions were killed. I hope to God that ain't true, though I suspect there was just a misunderstanding maybe ? Perhaps he thought casualties meant deaths ? Idk, but I had that with ppl in the past.

According to OHCHR there were over 46,000 verified civilian casualties, but real numbers could be higher.

I have no idea what .mil to .civ deaths are in this case. However, there tends to be more civilian deaths than military in many if not most big conflicts. Sometimes there are multiple-times .civ deaths than .mil in most major, long-duration conflicts. If those numbers are accurate, it's an anomaly.