Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Gunz]

Could be propaganda but one hopes not.

Ukraine hits 'Wagner HQ' in weekend of fighting - BBC News

Everybody’s running with it internationally and every version quotes the same exiled governor and nobody else.

The TASS version leads me to believe there may be some truth in it. It at least confirms the HIMARS strike on the hotel.

Dec 10 strike on Melitopol was expected to show Kiev still has MLRS — public figure

 

[Gordus]

Georgians and Wagnerites seem to be in a downright feud. Wagner declared a hunt. In return the Georgians attacked ( this time ambushed ? ) another Wagner position, killing 11 of them. (link) - Warning, graphic.

Meanwhile, the AFU engaged and disabled another T-90M. With 9 so far, that's nearly 10% of their total number.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603095789768769536

More US weapons deployed by the AFU

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603060017858494467

A tank-on-tank, ending in favour of the AFU.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602030183694860288

 

[AWP]

6 weeks after my last post w/ numbers and we've jumped from 1306 destroyed or captured tanks to 1455, a delta of 149 or an average of almost 25 per week.

At that rate, a year from now the war will have cost them a total of 2748 tanks. Russia will literally have almost zero front line tanks and depleted much of what's in storage. Think of the corners her depot soldiers and civilians will have to cut to refurb all of those old T-72's, -64's, and -62's for the front, only to have a life expectancy measured in days.

I won't even begin to estimate where critical systems like armored vehicles, artillery, and prime movers stand, but those numbers have to be ghastly.

 

[AWP]

If you assume 12 fixed wing a/c per squadron and 20 helos per squadron (the best numbers I can find though you may have better results)
1 squadron of SU-30M (Roughly equivalent to our F-15E Strike Eagles or F/A-18 Hornets)
2 squadrons of SU-25 (Roughly equivalent to our A-10)
1 squadron of SU-34 (Also roughly equivalent to our F-15E Strike Eagles or F/A-18 Hornets)

A US Fighter Wing has 3 squadrons and a US Carrier Air Wing typically has 4 strike squadrons. Go to Mountain Home, Seymour Johnson, or Lakenheath and fly every a/c and their crews into a mountain. OR, reduce an an entire carrier to a token force of strike aircraft. If you tack on various other strike aircraft losses you have another squadron of mixed airframes.

Helos, roughly 2 squadrons of their Apache equivalent models or 2 battalions/ squadrons in the US. When you add their transport losses, you have essentially an entire US Combat Aviation Brigade.

 

[Gunz]

6 weeks after my last post w/ numbers and we've jumped from 1306 destroyed or captured tanks to 1455, a delta of 149 or an average of almost 25 per week.

At that rate, a year from now the war will have cost them a total of 2748 tanks. Russia will literally have almost zero front line tanks and depleted much of what's in storage. Think of the corners her depot soldiers and civilians will have to cut to refurb all of those old T-72's, -64's, and -62's for the front, only to have a life expectancy measured in days.

I won't even begin to estimate where critical systems like armored vehicles, artillery, and prime movers stand, but those numbers have to be ghastly.

Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently they've been upgraded a number of times to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right they're not doing the job.

 

[AWP]

Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently they've been upgraded a number of times to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right they're not doing the job.

I’m pulling my loss data from Oryx and overall strength numbers from the most reputable sources I can find. The numbers in this war are almost unlike anything in modern times, including the Gulf War.

With that said, if anyone can run down better numbers for pre-war unit and equipment strength, I’m happy to stand corrected.

 

[Blizzard]

Soon, the Soviet's motherland will be defended solely by spear chuckers and pitchforks.

It's a remarkable decline by any measure.

 

[RackMaster]

 

[ThunderHorse]

I’m pulling my loss data from Oryx and overall strength numbers from the most reputable sources I can find. The numbers in this war are almost unlike anything in modern times, including the Gulf War.

With that said, if anyone can run down better numbers for pre-war unit and equipment strength, I’m happy to stand corrected.

It's why he's doing missile barrages now, doesn't have the ability to reach much beyond the front. Which shows he thought he'd be welcomed as a liberator of some kind and wanted to keep infrastructure. And now they're using their doctrine as it relates to artillery but getting nowhere since their competent soldiers are all dead.

 

[Gordus]

Two interesting twitter threads.

Footage of Russian trenches being hit with very lethal effect.

( Link ) - Warning, graphic.

There seems to be an ongoing debate wheter they were struck by airburst or more likely, cluster munition and from what country, US, Spain etc.

The other one is this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604514157239275520

 

[ThunderHorse]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604952012092624896

 

[Totentanz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604952012092624896

I've seen this one before - you assemble an army of panserbjorne and go fight the Tartars.

 

[Gordus]

"Buying".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604540346700300288

 

[Gunz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604952012092624896

Anywhere from 13,000 to 260,000 children, the latter figure according to DoS.

Russia’s “Filtration” Operations, Forced Disappearances, and Mass Deportations of Ukrainian Citizens  - United States Department of State

"Buying".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604540346700300288

Fucking pathetic.

 

[BlackSmokeRisinG]

Most of the Russian tanks have defense systems which were developed back in the 80s. Apparently they've been upgraded a number of times to "protect" against Javelins, etc; but if your numbers are right they're not doing the job.

Doing the job like a Takata airbag!

 

[Jaknight]

"Buying".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604540346700300288

Where’s your dad?
He got blown up in Ukraine but look at this sweet phone I got long love Putin!!!! Takes selfie

 

[DA SWO]

Watching and reading, are tanks "safe" from Javelin type systems anymore?

 

[AWP]

Watching and reading, are tanks "safe" from Javelin type systems anymore?

I don’t see how. Google says it can penetrate approximately 30 inches of rolled homogeneous armor. I’m not a tanker, but the countermeasures you’d have to apply to the top of a tank are probably prohibitive.

 

[Gunz]

There’s been a lot of hoopla over the T14 in trade shows and mags etc, Russia’s newest battle tank. But apparently, despite it’s advanced protection system, it can’t defend itself against top-attack munitions.

And the whole program seems to be stalled. For many reasons. Not the least of which is cost to maintain with sanctions in place, tank losses in Ukraine, the incredible expense of the war etc.

And of course they’ve sent none to Ukraine. Might as well be a tortoise on it’s back.

 

[BloodStripe]

Couple of Ukrainian early 20 something’s were starting at our hotel. Turns out for the last 8 months they’ve been touring Europe by Porsche. They could be financing something and maybe that’s their contribution, but I imagine there’s a lot more out there doing something similar.