Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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ThunderHorse
Verified Military
Russia intends to seize all of Southern Ukraine. Have fun with that guys.
Ukraine war: Russia 'plans to seize southern Ukraine'
Additionally, AFP reports that Russia won't allow Ukrainian Army to surrender in Mariupol. So, went from a Surrender or Die Ultimatum to a just die ultimatum.
So far Ukrainian Army soldiers were refusing to surrender. This is turning into some viking level glorious way to die type shit. The Ukrainian BoB mini-series on HBO will be next level when all this shit is over.
Ukraine war: Russia 'plans to seize southern Ukraine'
Additionally, AFP reports that Russia won't allow Ukrainian Army to surrender in Mariupol. So, went from a Surrender or Die Ultimatum to a just die ultimatum.
So far Ukrainian Army soldiers were refusing to surrender. This is turning into some viking level glorious way to die type shit. The Ukrainian BoB mini-series on HBO will be next level when all this shit is over.
Last Stands play well in the West. To say you'll make one is a lot of good press; to do it is immortality. It also plays well into the Ukraine's broader IO plan. "We fought to the last man, woman, and child. Where were you? Why didn't you help?" kind of stuff. You have modern geopolitics, a mostly internationally recognized bad guy, a metric butt ton of history, and the Western press on your side. Why not say you'll never surrender?
;)
I have a feeling tractors are cruising the neighborhoods like 22 year olds cruising high school parking lots.
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Some interesting comments from the Soviets (I'm picking this term back up too thanks to @AWP):
No real surprise, but after 60+ days with massive Soviet losses reported, it's abundantly clear Putin has absolutely no interest in any negotiations with Ukraine. These little talks we occasionally here about aren't at all serious.
This fight appears ready to go to the distance because Ukraine isn't ready cede any territory. So, what about the other former Soviet territories? At what level are they willing to participate? If Putin is somehow able to make it past Ukraine, they're obviously next. Seems Kazakhstan may be having second thoughts.
No real surprise, but after 60+ days with massive Soviet losses reported, it's abundantly clear Putin has absolutely no interest in any negotiations with Ukraine. These little talks we occasionally here about aren't at all serious.
This fight appears ready to go to the distance because Ukraine isn't ready cede any territory. So, what about the other former Soviet territories? At what level are they willing to participate? If Putin is somehow able to make it past Ukraine, they're obviously next. Seems Kazakhstan may be having second thoughts.
And after 60+ days, this is what Putin's "blitzkrieg" has accomplished: military control of areas that were significantly pro-Russian to begin with and slow progress expanding penetration on a 600-mile+ front.
If this rate of advance keeps up, Putin's looking at a very long war. Every day Ukraine gets stronger militarily, Ukrainian resistance will flourish in areas not under Russian control. Just the task of investing all the major urban centers--considering the Russian performance to date--might be a nightmare.
He also has no way of sealing all the border areas, and this IMO, will be the nail in the coffin. Ukraine will continue to be resupplied, rearmed, reinforced through NATO countries to the West. Poland will be Ukraine's Pakistan, Ukraine's Ho Chi Minh Trail.
Three, four, five years from now--unless the situation drastically changes in Russia's favor--this ShadowSpear thread may still be relevant.
If this rate of advance keeps up, Putin's looking at a very long war. Every day Ukraine gets stronger militarily, Ukrainian resistance will flourish in areas not under Russian control. Just the task of investing all the major urban centers--considering the Russian performance to date--might be a nightmare.
He also has no way of sealing all the border areas, and this IMO, will be the nail in the coffin. Ukraine will continue to be resupplied, rearmed, reinforced through NATO countries to the West. Poland will be Ukraine's Pakistan, Ukraine's Ho Chi Minh Trail.
Three, four, five years from now--unless the situation drastically changes in Russia's favor--this ShadowSpear thread may still be relevant.
@Gunz the problem I see is that Ukraine may be getting better equipment but it's equipment with a steep learning curve. Also, Ukraine is definitely distorting or outright hiding their losses. Without a major influx of manpower, how long can they sustain?
How long are we delaying the eventual world wide conflict? Putin isn't going to back down. Either way, we have an eventual worldwide nuclear war. Everyone is forgetting all the other assholes in the room, with itchy button fingers.
How long are we delaying the eventual world wide conflict? Putin isn't going to back down. Either way, we have an eventual worldwide nuclear war. Everyone is forgetting all the other assholes in the room, with itchy button fingers.
Devildoc
Verified Military
RE: all the military equipment and weapons, read this in an article earlier:
"While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”
Sooooo......is it working, or no??
"While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”
Sooooo......is it working, or no??
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Agree, the devil is in the details. Getting the equipment is just one part of the equation...the easy part. How about spare/replacement parts? The logistical cycle is the hard part. Who will maintain the equipment and implement a training program beyond the initial delivery?
I read an article that said Ukraine needed 500 Stingers and Javelins **per day**. Those are precision weapons, and they're not cheap. I also read an article that indicates Raytheon is having trouble keeping up with Stinger production, which is concerning because we might need those weapons against
However we slice it, this is VERY concerning.
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Agree 100%, especially on this point.
What if Ukraine eventually falls? What happens to those weapons? Did we just rearm the Soviets?
I'd like to think the smart people have thought this through but based on the train wreck of an exit in Afghanistan, I'm not confident that's the case.
I've seen videos of Ukrainian's, almost everyone in a section was carrying some sort of shoulder fire AA or AT system. I'm sure plenty have been wasted.
RPGs and AT-4s work against a lot of kinds of armor too. So do shaped-charge IEDs. So I've heard. Seen. ;) I imagine they're also a lot easier and cheaper to acquire/produce and don't damage our strategic readiness
It appears that we have already introduced into Ukraine several times the number of AA and AT missiles that Russia has committed aircraft and armored vehicles. Even understanding the combat math that includes spoilage, missed shots, and having enough weapons to have them in the right places at the right times, the numbers don't seem to add up.
Maybe the ass whipping that all of this money and equipment is helping the Ukrainian coalition is worth it strategically. But for now I have many questions.
I'm dumb, and looked up the Soviet Air Force numbers on Wikipedia. Ballpark, you have about 750 multirole fighters, 450 ground attack, and 1400 or so helos of various types. These are very rough numbers, I looked at what they were likely to use and ignored heavy bombers, transports, one-offs, etc.
So...2,600-ish frontline aircraft that routinely operate in a Stinger's envelope. If each a/c took 5 missiles to kill, you'll need 13,000 Stingers.
Or 26 days at Ukrainian numbers. That's assuming that every frontline Soviet a/c was committed, attacked, and destroyed.
10 missiles per kill is 52 days @500 missiles at day.
The Ukrainians are out of their goddamn minds. I am all for Team Ukraine, but someone needs to slap them upside their heads and ask hard questions.
List of active Russian military aircraft - Wikipedia
So...2,600-ish frontline aircraft that routinely operate in a Stinger's envelope. If each a/c took 5 missiles to kill, you'll need 13,000 Stingers.
Or 26 days at Ukrainian numbers. That's assuming that every frontline Soviet a/c was committed, attacked, and destroyed.
10 missiles per kill is 52 days @500 missiles at day.
The Ukrainians are out of their goddamn minds. I am all for Team Ukraine, but someone needs to slap them upside their heads and ask hard questions.
List of active Russian military aircraft - Wikipedia
...and that doesn't count the SA-7s and Cheetahs that the Germans sent in, or the AA that Ukraine presumably had in its inventory pre-war.
I haven't seen hundreds of downed aircraft videos. Lot of videos out there, but not enough to justify 200-500 (depending on whose numbers you believe) launches/day.
ATGM's seem to be very effective, which makes me question flooding the Ukraine with ManPAD's.
What does the Ukraine plan on giving us (the West) after it's all over?
If it's like the rest of the world, what they're likely to give us is a bunch of grief over "not doing enough," and a hard time over "colonialism."
