Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[SpitfireV]

If on a scale on 1-100 in difficulty (for either side) if this is a, say, 50, Taiwan/PRC will be 100+. 200 miles long, almost 80, 90 wide, 15,000 square miles, 100+ miles of water between them. Glad I'm not in plans and ops.

UK has greased the way for volunteers to go.

In other news Shell has pulled out of Russia, ceasing it's operations, and Maersk is considering not delivering to/from Russia or transporting Russian goods.

That difficulty and those details are the reason I don't think China is going to use this as a cover for an invasion because of the amount of equipment and men that will need to be assembled- and that would be seen by all sorts of people, govt and NGO, very quickly. That's not to say a blockade couldn't happen to choke them.

 

[CQB]

So if Ukraine joins NATO now, does that automatically trigger Article 5?

 

[Marauder06]

So if Ukraine joins NATO now, does that automatically trigger Article 5?

I don't think that's the way NATO membership works. IIRC you have to have uncontested control of your territory, plus you have to get voted in... which would trigger Art 5 and Europe clearly isn't ready for that.

 

[ThunderHorse]

FIFA and World Rugby Suspend Russian Federations.

World Rugby confirms sporting sanctions for Russia and Belarus | World Rugby

FIFA/UEFA suspend Russian clubs and national teams from all competitions

 

[CQB]

I don't think that's the way NATO membership works. IIRC you have to have uncontested control of your territory, plus you have to get voted in... which would trigger Art 5 and Europe clearly isn't ready for that.

Ok cheers.

 

[Archangel27]

Yesterday I got a message from an officer who used to work from me when she was a captain. She was on a plane to Europe to support... whatever it is we're doing there right now. It was an interesting feeling being the one back in the rear when other people are heading out. I felt anxious and uncertain in ways I never did when I was the one doing the deploying.

Don't worry too much. She will be fine.

 

[Gunz]

Ukrainian sailor sinks Russian boss’s $7.7 million luxury superyacht

I hope that boat-owning, arms-dealing tycoon isn't the one I get my good Russian steel-case ammo from.

 

[RackMaster]

I hope that boat-owning, arms-dealing tycoon isn't the one I get my good Russian steel-case ammo from.

I think the prices of Russian ammo is going to skyrocket as it's not imported any more.

 

[Marauder06]

An assessment of Russia's campaign, from the Institute for the Study of War.

 

[pardus]

As Devil Doc said…

Consider the source but…

 

[Marauder06]

The reported losses seem... extreme to me. Pardus what do you think?

 

[Ranger Psych]

if those numbers are right, then they've like lost, what... the Entire Iraq war/occupation's worth of manpower/material losses, in like 2-3 days?

I mean, I would LOVE for that to be right on a geopolitical level, because then that means that Ching su yong over in north korea (or whatever his damn name is) is higher on the adversarial list, save numbers.

Seeing the amount of chucklefuckery that is obvious with regards to all the first person published videos of disabled vehicles due to stupidity, etc?

I'd love to hear the big bad bear spent too much time on it's ass than in the gym.

 

[pardus]

The reported losses seem... extreme to me. Pardus what do you think?

Yeah I think there’s a touch of optimism in there lol
It is a fairly conventional conflict so far, which will include losses significantly higher than what we’ve experienced in the GWOT, but one of Ukraine’s biggest weapons right now is PR, so their propaganda machine is working overtime and that must be taken into account. My .02c

 

[pardus]

Login • Instagram


Ugh I’m having trouble doing this on my phone. It’s a video of 30 rotary wings coming in from Belarus.
Putin is yet to really squeeze Ukraine, it will hurt when he does. Electricity and gas for heating seems to be intact so far, life is really going to suck when that is cut off…

 

[Ranger Psych]

I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what,
about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving. I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.

Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning.

I mean, I like rooting for an underdog and Ukraine has that in spades anyway. I genuinely don't understand the mindset that fueled this whole shitshow... at least our own shitshow started off with us getting suckerpunched. Of course one of our wild swings hit a neighbor and got us into a 2 for one fight down the line, yadda yadda..... but this is just plain wtf.

Putin needs someone to hook him up with some polonium or something.

 

[Devildoc]

I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what, View attachment 38945
about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving. I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.

Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning.

I mean, I like rooting for an underdog and Ukraine has that in spades anyway. I genuinely don't understand the mindset that fueled this whole shitshow... at least our own shitshow started off with us getting suckerpunched. Of course one of our wild swings hit a neighbor and got us into a 2 for one fight down the line, yadda yadda..... but this is just plain wtf.

Putin needs someone to hook him up with some polonium or something.

I dig ricin, but yeah, polonium works fine, too.

I have also been amazed and how myopically forward-looking AND blind in hindsight we've been. When this started and people started clutching their pearls I was asking, "are you really that surprised?", and often the answer was 'yes'. What in the hell have you been doing for the, oh, I don't know, past 30 years? 20? 10? Not paying attention to anything past CNN or Fox News.

This also goes for our friends in the intelligence community, those guys who just swore that the Red Menace of the 50s-80s were both large in number and so technologically advanced and we found out neither was really true, and have fallen in the exact same trap today. What's that axiom about the definition of insanity? Yeahhhhh.......

 

[ThunderHorse]

So a couple of things that's going on. There's a division sized column approaching Kyiv on a road out of Belarus. Putin is committing the second echelon after getting bogged down. Hopefully some javelins and Bayraktar TB2's can be deployed to cause some havoc. That long of a column without air supremacy is ripe to getting hit. Hopefuly UKRA has some forces to maneuver to harass it.

I just watched the French PM's speech in Parliament this morning, basically what occurred almost never happens in French Parliament. There were three standing ovations for the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian Ambassador to France was invited in attendance as a VIP. It was effectively a war speech. He did stress diplomacy in it and direct messaging to the Russian people. BUT, my gut tells me the longer this goes on the higher chance of it going kinetic with NATO forces increases significantly.

 

[Devildoc]

So a couple of things that's going on. There's a division sized column approaching Kyiv on a road out of Belarus. Putin is committing the second echelon after getting bogged down. Hopefully some javelins and Bayraktar TB2's can be deployed to cause some havoc. That long of a column without air supremacy is ripe to getting hit. Hopefuly UKRA has some forces to maneuver to harass it.

I just watched the French PM's speech in Parliament this morning, basically what occurred almost never happens in French Parliament. There were three standing ovations for the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian Ambassador to France was invited in attendance as a VIP. It was effectively a war speech. He did stress diplomacy in it and direct messaging to the Russian people. BUT, my gut tells me the longer this goes on the higher chance of it going kinetic with NATO forces increases significantly.

France has come out as bellicose as they ever have. They are frosty, and in many ways leading Europe.

RE: the column, I understand that Russia owns Anatov Airport, which can support the column. Now, drone strikes....

 

[ThunderHorse]

I don't think that the "Soviet" style of warfare that Putin grew up with, is really the in thing these days. This is going to go south for them in the public opinion, especially since they're fighting over a territory that's what, View attachment 38945
about the size of Texas? Not trying to shit on Texas, in the end it's a piece of territory that you can get across in one day's of driving. I... Maybe it's because it's Europe and therefore denser, but I'm still like really dissappointed at this point with the amount of sabre rattling has gone on over my lifetime (as one simple example) about the big bad red menace and then the only thing they really seem to have going for them is numbers, nothing else.

Especially about something that's right next door. That's ineptitude on the level of the ATF, with regards to their intelligence apparatus and just planning.

I mean, I like rooting for an underdog and Ukraine has that in spades anyway. I genuinely don't understand the mindset that fueled this whole shitshow... at least our own shitshow started off with us getting suckerpunched. Of course one of our wild swings hit a neighbor and got us into a 2 for one fight down the line, yadda yadda..... but this is just plain wtf.

Putin needs someone to hook him up with some polonium or something.

Tactical Road Marches are not thunder runs, those things were kinda lucky when you think about it. He actually tried to do a bunch of "Thunder Runs" and believed his own bullshit that Ukrainian people would take them with open arms. And then they started getting rockets to the dome.

As Devil Doc said…
View attachment 38942
Consider the source but…
View attachment 38943

Based on what we've seen with how bogged down the advance has gotten and the lack of protection log convoys have had, the number of fuel trucks hit seems woefully low.

 

[Devildoc]

Tactical Road Marches are not thunder runs, those things were kinda lucky when you think about it. He actually tried to do a bunch of "Thunder Runs" and believed his own bullshit that Ukrainian people would take them with open arms. And then they started getting rockets to the dome.

And he outran his log train. I mean, that's never happened in the history of war /sarc.....