Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[JedisonsDad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578653629933703170

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578658967374659586

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578625961868038145

I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.

The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.

 

[RackMaster]

If only they used a bigger truck and more explosives. The fact this happened, shows the Russians weren't devoting the right resources or not enough.

 

[AWP]

I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.

The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.

Yes and no. The Soviets aren't pulling all of their defense forces around the bridge because of the damage. They will surely conduct a BDA and find out how much traffic can pass over it at any point in time, weight, etc. You'll still need forces to defend the bridge and if this is as important as they say, the Sovs might double down on security. Then you have risk-reward. Let's say every troop and system guarding the bridge were pulled out and sent to the front, is the loss of logistical capability worth facing extra men on the battlefield? This also puts pressure on your other MSR's...which means the Sovs may have to commit more troops and systems to guard those routes.

Plus the psychological impact: "someone" or "something" just dropped a major supply line WELL behind the lines in the Ukraine. Everyone within 100 miles of the front will start seeing ghosts now.

 

[Blizzard]

If only they used a bigger truck and more explosives. The fact this happened, shows the Russians weren't devoting the right resources or not enough.

Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.

 

[DA SWO]

Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.

I would go with a truck bomb, or an explosive attached to a rail car.
Psychological impact is going to be huge.

 

[RackMaster]

Soviets day it was a truck bomb but I've read speculation the attack may"ve occurred via watercraft, perhaps something like a drone boat.

I'll have to look for it but there's security camera footage of a truck when the blast occurred.

 

[Blizzard]

I'll have to look for it but there's security camera footage of a truck when the blast occurred.

Yeah, I'm not saying it was, just that it was speculated as a possibility, however, it appears they've walked back that speculation based on the footage you mention:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578635768305967104

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578659339573035008

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578686276240568320

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578748628046270464

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578772733944631299

 

[Gordus]

According to Russian security services, the driver of the suspected truck "bomb" was a citizen of Krasnodar, Russia. Doesn't necessarily seem like the explosion was caused by any vehicle. Maybe the bridge was mined / saboutaged ?

 

[AWP]

Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?

 

[pardus]

I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.

The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.

http://www.hisutton.com/Russia-Kerch-Bridge-Decoys-Gone.html

For some reason Russia removed its own defense barges from the bridge last month, which I found odd at the time. As @AWP says, the Russians will only increase resources to defend the bridge now, as well as their amphibious capabilities which I’m sure they know are highly vulnerable to the Ukrainian mini sub drones.
Once the land bridge to Crimea is cut on the mainland, this is all they have left and they know it.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578756626403631105

 

[pardus]

Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?

Or was it seaborne? I’m very curious. The bridge section that dropped into the sea doesn’t look like it’s received a blast from above to my untrained eyes, but I really don’t know.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578787872102289409

 

[RackMaster]

I'm looking forward to the naval phase of destroying and abandoning Russian equipment.

Paging @racing_kitty for blast analysis.

 

[ThunderHorse]

I read an article a few weeks back about why it made more sense to not attack this bridge.

The author stated that as long as the bridge stood, Russia would devote resources to this area, to protect and secure the bridge. And that if the bridge were to be destroyed, Russia no longer had to devote resources such as anti-air to defend it.

That makes no sense since Crimea is a logistics and staging area for the Southern Axis.

 

[DA SWO]

Was this a suicide VBIED or did they load up an unsuspecting truck with explosives and remotely detonate them?

According to Russian security services, the driver of the suspected truck "bomb" was a citizen of Krasnodar, Russia. Doesn't necessarily seem like the explosion was caused by any vehicle. Maybe the bridge was mined / saboutaged ?

Is the truck driver alive? Knowing who owned the truck is useless if the driver/owner is dead.
@AWP Good question. I'd like to think it is the former, though the latter is also a possibility.
I assume the cars near the truck also vaporized, that sucks.

 

[Gordus]

Is the truck driver alive? Knowing who owned the truck is useless if the driver/owner is dead.
@AWP Good question. I'd like to think it is the former, though the latter is also a possibility.
I assume the cars near the truck also vaporized, that sucks.

No info on the truck driver yet, but reportedly 3 people died, including two in a car driving next to the truck.

 

[pardus]

So in this clip there is definitely something moving under the bridge immediately before the explosion, Whether that has anything to do with it I don’t know, could just be waves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578642054988849153