Ukraine - Russia Conflict

World record free dive is like 430 feet.

World record closed circuit scuba dive is over a 1000 feet. Saturation divers routinely work down to a 1000 feet.

Yes. They'd have to decompress. You'd think that someone, somewhere, could produce pics of ships with decomp chambers aboard. I guess they could have had those ships there and the chambers and dive support be hidden.
 
Thanks for that info. I was aware closed circuit could go lower but didn’t realize to that depth.

Closed circuit in this case is mixed gas, not closed circuit like what the SEALs use. Mixed gas would also require topside support. After I am properly caffeinated I could also figure out bottom time and chamber time (off the top of my head I think chamber time would be somewhere around 3 days or a bit more).

My theory, if we had any participation, over divers is an underwater drone or submersible.
 
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Closed circuit in this case is mixed gas, not closed circuit like what the SEALs use. Mixed gas would also require topside support. After I am properly caffeinated I could also figure out bottom time and chamber time (off the top of my head I think chamber time would be somewhere around 3 days or a bit more).

My theory, if we had any participation, over divers is an underwater drone or submersible.

No. Closed circuit is a rebreather in the case of the record.

Rig used: THE JJ-CCR REBREATHER – JJ-CCR VERSATILE REBREATHER

Also certain submarines have had the ability to utilize saturation divers at depth since at least the 70’s. They talk about it at length in Blind Man’s Bluff.
 
Yes. They'd have to decompress. You'd think that someone, somewhere, could produce pics of ships with decomp chambers aboard. I guess they could have had those ships there and the chambers and dive support be hidden.

Submarines have this capability, and have had it since the 70’s at least
 
No. Closed circuit is a rebreather in the case of the record.

Rig used: THE JJ-CCR REBREATHER – JJ-CCR VERSATILE REBREATHER

Also certain submarines have had the ability to utilize saturation divers at depth since at least the 70’s. They talk about it at length in Blind Man’s Bluff.

Yeah, I fully concede that the entire activity can be underwater. In fact, my theory is that if any divers did it, it could not be via surface supplied support because that is too visible and a linger too long, you know it'd have to be submersible activity.

Re: rebreathers, the lar v is rated to 70 ft, the JJ CCR is adaptable (where the lar v is not). O2 rigs are no bueno at depth. Even a bounce dive to 100 ft on pure oxygen is dangerous. But you play with gas, so I'm sure you know.

All of this is making me think hard, it's been a minute since I've been in dive medicine and worked in hyperbarics. I thought I left physics and math behind me.
 
Closed circuit in this case is mixed gas, not closed circuit like what the SEALs use. Mixed gas would also require topside support. After I am properly caffeinated I could also figure out bottom time and chamber time (off the top of my head I think chamber time would be somewhere around 3 days or a bit more).

My theory, if we had any participation, over divers is an underwater drone or submersible.
Yea, well aware of the issue with gas at depth and as it was early in the morning here my mind was there and not on closed circuit diving.

Sitting here now, theoretically it could have been a free diver. World record for that is over 700 ft. The blast size indicates four bombs were planted using several hundred kilos of explosives, which rules out a free diver and realistically any diver at all.
 
Yea, well aware of the issue with gas at depth and as it was early in the morning here my mind was there and not on closed circuit diving.

Sitting here now, theoretically it could have been a free diver. World record for that is over 700 ft. The blast size indicates four bombs were planted using several hundred kilos of explosives, which rules out a free diver and realistically any diver at all.

Yes a single unsupported diver. But not a saturation diver leaving a submarine..
 
I don’t completely trust Hersh. I don’t trust him any more than any other left wing journalist...But if it’s fiction it’s pretty good.

I’ll wait for one of the frogmen to violate his NDA.
World record dive is 330 some odd feet. The depth of the pipes are around 320 feet deep. Possible to place bombs there by man? Yes. Realistically, no.
Yes a single unsupported diver. But not a saturation diver leaving a submarine..


So- couple things.

320 feet is a cakewalk. Commercial mixed gas divers working simple DECO are working somewhere in the world 500+ right this second, I will guarantee it. It's not that hard. Saturation divers like @TLDR20 mentioned- much deeper. Huge surface supplied ships working ICW with subs and other submersibles can carry, transport and place hundreds of thousands of pounds of equipment. We worked with commercial divers in Scotland that routinely worked 400 feet- one of them worked a project at 900 feet... for 7 months.

The author has definitely published some bombshells that turned out to be true, he's also the guy that alleges the UBL raid was completely fictitious and didn't go the way that you were told, so I have a healthy dose of skepticism for him personally but...


... the timing links up. The fact that the regular Navy (and not SOCOM/JSOC) allegedly did the deed makes sense because JSOC would need express permission from Congress/SECDEF. Regular forces wouldn't. Navy divers are actually the right "tool" for this one- diving in SOCOM/SOF is almost always done for infil, not for salvage. Even for us (PJs) that have a distinct mission to recover... we tap the Navy when it's too deep.

I will hold what I got here- but you got motive, you got capability, you got timing, you got Biden explicitly saying that he was going to kill the pipeline during the exercise when it's alleged the explosives were being placed.
"If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again," Biden said. "Then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
When asked how, Biden said: "We will. I promise you. We will be able to do that."


That was Feb 2022.
 
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The fact that the regular Navy (and not SOCOM/JSOC) allegedly did the deed makes sense because JSOC would need express permission from Congress/SECDEF. Regular forces wouldn't.

I'm not quite following how the authorization wouldn't apply if it was conventional forces instead of SOCOM/JSOC.

I was always under the impression that had more to do with who had mission command than the force elements involved.
 
So- couple things.

320 feet is a cakewalk. Commercial mixed gas divers working simple DECO are working somewhere in the world 500+ right this second, I will guarantee it. It's not that hard. Saturation divers like @TLDR20 mentioned- much deeper. Huge surface supplied ships working ICW with subs and other submersibles can carry, transport and place hundreds of thousands of pounds of equipment. We worked with commercial divers in Scotland that routinely worked 400 feet- one of them worked a project at 900 feet... for 7 months.

The author has definitely published some bombshells that turned out to be true, he's also the guy that alleges the UBL raid was completely fictitious and didn't go the way that you were told, so I have a healthy dose of skepticism for him personally but...


... the timing links up. The fact that the regular Navy (and not SOCOM/JSOC) allegedly did the deed makes sense because JSOC would need express permission from Congress/SECDEF. Regular forces wouldn't. Navy divers are actually the right "tool" for this one- diving in SOCOM/SOF is almost always done for infil, not for salvage. Even for us (PJs) that have a distinct mission to recover... we tap the Navy when it's too deep.

I will hold what I got here- but you got motive, you got capability, you got timing, you got Biden explicitly saying that he was going to kill the pipeline during the exercise when it's alleged the explosives were being placed.
"If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again," Biden said. "Then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
When asked how, Biden said: "We will. I promise you. We will be able to do that."


That was Feb 2022.


Open circuit dive record is 332’. Same article says 951’ for closed circuit. Excludes saturation which is over 2300’.

Scuba diving world records

I’m not going to delete this just to show my own ass. That’s meters not feet. 😂 IR grunt.
 
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So- couple things.

320 feet is a cakewalk. Commercial mixed gas divers working simple DECO are working somewhere in the world 500+ right this second, I will guarantee it. It's not that hard. Saturation divers like @TLDR20 mentioned- much deeper. Huge surface supplied ships working ICW with subs and other submersibles can carry, transport and place hundreds of thousands of pounds of equipment. We worked with commercial divers in Scotland that routinely worked 400 feet- one of them worked a project at 900 feet... for 7 months.

The author has definitely published some bombshells that turned out to be true, he's also the guy that alleges the UBL raid was completely fictitious and didn't go the way that you were told, so I have a healthy dose of skepticism for him personally but...


... the timing links up. The fact that the regular Navy (and not SOCOM/JSOC) allegedly did the deed makes sense because JSOC would need express permission from Congress/SECDEF. Regular forces wouldn't. Navy divers are actually the right "tool" for this one- diving in SOCOM/SOF is almost always done for infil, not for salvage. Even for us (PJs) that have a distinct mission to recover... we tap the Navy when it's too deep.

I will hold what I got here- but you got motive, you got capability, you got timing, you got Biden explicitly saying that he was going to kill the pipeline during the exercise when it's alleged the explosives were being placed.
"If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again," Biden said. "Then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
When asked how, Biden said: "We will. I promise you. We will be able to do that."


That was Feb 2022.

I have a coworker who was a Navy diving officer, he said that their community dove down, special operations dives sideways.
 
I'm not quite following how the authorization wouldn't apply if it was conventional forces instead of SOCOM/JSOC.

I was always under the impression that had more to do with who had mission command than the force elements involved.
Titles, 1. And exposure, two.

We are playing conspiratorial games here my friend. So yea, letter of the law and if we assume that the government 100% abides by what they are supposed to do and never, you know, fake an entire attack in the Gulf of Tonkin to get us into the Vietnam War, then I would agree with you. But that aint the case, so what I am saying is- I would want to include as few people as possible in the process.

*I* was going to do this, I would 100% not make a big "super secret covert op" out of it. No special operators showing up unannounced on a Big Navy ship to do something they never do, no including SOCOM or JSOC commanders, no asking for inputs from any number of people that would say no.

I would tap the subject matter experts (deep water Navy) during a title 10 exercise (like what happened) and I would want the least amount of people involved. The "blacker" you get, the more exposed you actually are, in my opinion.

I want to be clear here too- this is a HEAVY ass lift on conjecture on all sides. I don't believe any one thing more than another. But the scenario where Biden can unilaterally order this to a bunch of regular folks (vs special operations generals that might give pushback) seems pretty plausible to me.

It's all smoke and mirrors and I am not pretending to know anything anyone else doesn't, just putting the pieces together.
 
So let's assume for a second that US SOF carried out the Nord Stream Pipeline attack. Or some other force did it at the direction of / acquiescence of the US. What does that mean to us?
 
So let's assume for a second that US SOF carried out the Nord Stream Pipeline attack. Or some other force did it at the direction of / acquiescence of the US. What does that mean to us?
That's the fun part- nothing, really. Maybe just the first time the general public would be made aware of morally/ethically questionable actions by a sitting president in somewhat real time?

I definitely don't know the "so what", other than something that will hurt the incumbant's chances in the next election cycle, or maybe impeachment?

Outside of that- a cool distraction? A way for the machine to get rid of Biden? Nothing? No clue- you're the intel guy shouldn't you tell us?!
 
I just want to be clear, my talking about the possibility does not mean I think it happened. Im just saying it would be very easy for a sub to pull up, put out divers, set charges and move out…

We did that every 2 months in much more contested waters(minus explosives) for over a decade in the 70’s and 80’s.

I don’t really have an opinion on whether it happened. Sure seems like it could have. Is this something that should upset me? I don’t even know.
 
you're the intel guy shouldn't you tell us?!
Hey man, anything past "BOLO--white Hilux" is beyond my skills as a (former) intel practicioner. ;)

I don't feel like I know enough to speculate on whether or not the US carried out this attack. My sense is still that it wasn't us. But because I did in fact spend a long time in intel, I know that our government does things that we think only other governments do.

That said, this seems... heavy-handed for us to have done. I think we could have accomplished the same result with a lot less... signature... than just blowing the shit out of it. But I haven't done any real intel work in years and I've never been involved in the federal government, so what do I know.

In terms of what happens if it was us? Nothing. Even if we are no longer the global hegemon, we're close enough. If we did it, we will deny it and gaslight the shit out of everyone, COVID-19 style. because what was true in the time of Thucydides is true in our day as well: "the strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must."

Allow me to paraphrase the great sage of my time, Dave Chappelle: "F yo pipeline..."

dave chappelle GIF
 
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