Ukraine - Russia Conflict

[Gordus]

I don’t like that answer because I think the Crimea belongs to Ukraine. I don’t like or agree with appeasement.

I hear you AWP. My mind is with you on this, although a bit reluctantly. I'm just fed up with their bs and my heart really wants Ukraine to retake it. I still hold on to the belief that it was was possible and they can pull it off. No basis, just pure gutt feeling. Maybe the Ukrainians will surprise us a few more times yet. I am more concerned about Putins response tbh, if it ever get's that far.

 

[pardus]

I remember watching the inprocessing of a detainee in Afghanistan shortly after I took over the exploitation process with the Task Force. Tough Afghan fighter. Started crying when we ordered him to strip as part of his intake. Very standard procedures to make sure they're not hiding anything, and to document any injuries or marks they have so they can't say how we abused them in captivity.

Turns out he and his comrades were told that the first thing the Americans would do after capturing someone is rape them. He thought that it was about to go down.

Another detainee thought that 9/11 was the Taliban/Afghan response to the American invasion of Afghanistan.

"Ignorance is a helluva drug..."

I know the exact place you’re talking about I believe, I spent some time there myself.

I agree, but we need to be pragmatic. The Ukraine lacks the ability to drive to, and conquer, the Crimea. The two “separatist” areas? I see that happening, but not the Crimea.

I don’t like that answer because I think the Crimea belongs to Ukraine. I don’t like or agree with appeasement. Maybe the most likely scenario where the Ukraine takes back the peninsula is Putin’s overthrown and the new government cedes it to the Ukraine. A military solution is unlikely to impossible and Vlad will not give up that piece of land.

I agree with your thoughts regarding Putin and his views on Crimea, however IF Ukraine can cut the land bridge to Crimea (which I think is entirely plausible) then the problems of logistics for defending Crimea against an assault by Ukraine will rapidly overwhelm Russia’s already shitty logistical system. Russsia will have no choice but to abandon Crimea. I believe they’ll have a better chance to retain the eastern portions of the Donbas by simply parking masses of men and material there and digging in, but I’m not sure that it gives them much benefit beyond a buffer zone as I’m sure the industry there is probably quite degraded now and would be vulnerable going forward.

To my mind the only way this war goes into some Cold War stand off is if the West blackmails Ukraine into a peace deal (threatening to cut off arms etc…) and forces us into another 50 year stare down. Knowing the US in particular with plenty of industrial military complex lobbying, I could totally see this happening, which is why Ukraine needs to go hard and fast to kick Russia out before things get bogged down. Just my .02c

Yep. Appeasement never works. It only encourages worse things later on.

100%

 

[pardus]

 

[ThunderHorse]

I know. But you'd expect more from pro-Western ones.



I'm not even surprised there. CNN isn't even able to simply quote something, they literaly just played on their own channel.

Think of General Milley's statement what you like, but the man didn't exactly say anything controversial. All he suggested, was that the chances for Ukraine to push so hard militarily, that they regained control over Crimea any time soon, weren't high. So Ukraine should at least try to negotiate from a position of strenght, after another Russian defeat. Just for a chance, however slim, to try solve it politicaly.

CNN hosts on the other hand claims he said, it was unlikely for Ukraine to achieve an outright military victory against Russia. Not what he said. At all.

They could probably retake Crimea. It would either be a blood bath or it will fall as easily as it did the first time. Life in Donetsk isn't exactly a paradise under Separatist rule. But Crimea is not a near objective either. Retaking Kherson, Zaporizhzia, Luhansk Oblasts will take time. Then they will retake the remainder of Donetsk. If Ukraine is able to make significant gains before the deep winter starts it will be important for momentum. Considering the Russian Army does not have winter clothing, Ukraine might attempt to push through the winter and if they can force several strong points to collapse it will get interesting. One thing is for certain, that bridge needs to come down.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595130495012306944

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Just a personal opinion, so I'm not going to support my views with astronomical amounts of google-fu.

The only way I see a peace deal, where Russia saves a little face and Ukraine can feel somewhat vindicated. Would be Russia withdraw to its borders, Crimea and the disputed eastern (border) become autonomous republics, and war reparations through some third actor.

Russia isn't gonna go away and just lick their wounds, they spent way too much on their bridge to Crimea, on this whole war, etc. Just being taken down off the pedestal of being one of the baddest dudes on the block, infront of the world, is bad, booting them back into their borders and retaking Crimea and the eastern region, will be a boiling point, at which I believe we will see tactical nuclear weapons used by Russia.

Ukraine needs to win this, but in a manner where they can return to something. "We won but we can't occupy our land" is foolish. They will need to be compensated for the war damages, costs in repelling the invasion and loss of life, etc. Ukraine need to get right with the idea of an autonomous republic in Crimea and the east.

Is Russia gonna pay? Not directly, but again some form of a third actor "we seized xyz funds from Russia" and gave it to Ukraine for damages caused, etc.

Ukraine needs to agree to becoming a neutral country, with a treaty from Russia of no further military actions within their borders and or autonomous/disputed regions. But good luck with that, and Russia honoring such a treaty.

That would be a direction towards a peaceful ending. I don't foresee that happening, and would say that this will inevitably turn into a low level tactical nuclear war, leaving Ukraine completely fucked, and Russia becoming the whipping boy of this century. Russia uses nukes, Ukraine is fucked, the world responds, Russia becomes disarmed and spends half the century being the world's bitch, is most likely what will take place.

Putin really put himself, his country and their future in a bad corner.

 

[ThunderHorse]

So, the past two days Putin has been executing a missile barrage of Ukraine to take out power and water.

Russia hits Ukraine with new missile strikes, knocking out power and water

Putin's missile strikes for whatever reason have also targeted Moldovan infrastructure?

Most Moldovan power supplies restored after Russian strikes on Ukraine

Figured out he's losing ground and all he has is long range weaponry.

Just a personal opinion, so I'm not going to support my views with astronomical amounts of google-fu.

The only way I see a peace deal, where Russia saves a little face and Ukraine can feel somewhat vindicated. Would be Russia withdraw to its borders, Crimea and the disputed eastern (border) become autonomous republics, and war reparations through some third actor.

Russia isn't gonna go away and just lick their wounds, they spent way too much on their bridge to Crimea, on this whole war, etc. Just being taken down off the pedestal of being one of the baddest dudes on the block, infront of the world, is bad, booting them back into their borders and retaking Crimea and the eastern region, will be a boiling point, at which I believe we will see tactical nuclear weapons used by Russia.

Ukraine needs to win this, but in a manner where they can return to something. "We won but we can't occupy our land" is foolish. They will need to be compensated for the war damages, costs in repelling the invasion and loss of life, etc. Ukraine need to get right with the idea of an autonomous republic in Crimea and the east.

Is Russia gonna pay? Not directly, but again some form of a third actor "we seized xyz funds from Russia" and gave it to Ukraine for damages caused, etc.

Ukraine needs to agree to becoming a neutral country, with a treaty from Russia of no further military actions within their borders and or autonomous/disputed regions. But good luck with that, and Russia honoring such a treaty.

That would be a direction towards a peaceful ending. I don't foresee that happening, and would say that this will inevitably turn into a low level tactical nuclear war, leaving Ukraine completely fucked, and Russia becoming the whipping boy of this century. Russia uses nukes, Ukraine is fucked, the world responds, Russia becomes disarmed and spends half the century being the world's bitch, is most likely what will take place.

Putin really put himself, his country and their future in a bad corner.

Ukraine was neutral, for a very long time. Heck it still was before the invasion. "Neutral" for Putin means pro-Russian. And you mention the costs that Putin put Ukraine through. Ukraine will never become "neutral" ever now. The things you say they should consider are things that are not negotiable. Except Crimea, but with conditions.

Putin and his men will never pay for their crimes. So you need to start there. They committed mass genocide across Ukraine. This is important in understanding where Ukraine will go from here. They will modernize and become very pro-western. The US SHOULD treat them like we have been with Poland and rotating full brigades to conduct mass training exercises near the border just like we have done with Poland.

There is no turning back and many of the things you advocate for "autonomous" republics would be akin to surrender for them.

We have not suffered a land invasion since 1812. We are not really people who should dictate to these people what they should do. Russia is a clear enemy of ours and if it only costs us a quarter trillion to destroy their entire warmaking capability for the next 50 years, then so be it. What it definitely will not cost is American blood.

@pardus probably has a lot of thoughts from having been on the front line amongst them.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

So, the past two days Putin has been executing a missile barrage of Ukraine to take out power and water.

Russia hits Ukraine with new missile strikes, knocking out power and water

Putin's missile strikes for whatever reason have also targeted Moldovan infrastructure?

Most Moldovan power supplies restored after Russian strikes on Ukraine

Figured out he's losing ground and all he has is long range weaponry.




Ukraine was neutral, for a very long time. Heck it still was before the invasion. "Neutral" for Putin means pro-Russian. And you mention the costs that Putin put Ukraine through. Ukraine will never become "neutral" ever now. The things you say they should consider are things that are not negotiable. Except Crimea, but with conditions.

Putin and his men will never pay for their crimes. So you need to start there. They committed mass genocide across Ukraine. This is important in understanding where Ukraine will go from here. They will modernize and become very pro-western. The US SHOULD treat them like we have been with Poland and rotating full brigades to conduct mass training exercises near the border just like we have done with Poland.

There is no turning back and many of the things you advocate for "autonomous" republics would be akin to surrender for them.

We have not suffered a land invasion since 1812. We are not really people who should dictate to these people what they should do. Russia is a clear enemy of ours and if it only costs us a quarter trillion to destroy their entire warmaking capability for the next 50 years, then so be it. What it definitely will not cost is American blood.

@pardus probably has a lot of thoughts from having been on the front line amongst them.

Detaching from the emotional state of things, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to become a nuclear waste land so that we can keep Russia pinned down for the next 50 years. Is it better for the world as a whole, sure, for Ukraine, not so much.

I understand your POV, but what you are stating, leaves Ukraine fucked...period. Being pro-western in a country that you can barely occupy, is simply stupid.

But anyway, I was just giving an opinion. Not looking to spend hours defending it, or supporting it. At this point Russia has two options, go full retard and throw every last bit of military strength and hope they win, or go nuclear. Either scenario are terrible for Ukraine. Its time to start seeing a bigger picture, avoiding catastrophic destruction and planning for the future of Ukraine, before there is no Ukraine.

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595398679975936000

 

[pardus]

 

[pardus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595731169731280902

.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595740942186708993

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595745767096033280

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595658066644590592

 

[pardus]

Who is calling for a “peace deal” in Ukraine? Russian, Belarus, China and their ilk.
There will be no peace while Russia occupies Ukrainian land, the torture chambers and mass graves attest to that.
“It’s for Ukraine’s own good!” Really? Do you think Ukraine hasn’t thought about this, deeply, every single day since they were invaded? They are spilling their blood willingly for freedom.
What truly has me shaking my head is that patriotic freedom loving Americans, who with tears in their eyes have preached for decades, “it’s better to die free on your feet rather than live on your knees!” are now all for enslaving and murdering the Ukrainians, for their own good of course.
Well guess what, Ukrainians are prepared to die rather than be slaves.
The Ukrainians love the USA, Canada, and Europe, so as an American I’m ashamed when I hear Americans pushing appeasement in Ukraine, but should I be grateful because it shows a true democracy with diversity of views, just like the tens of thousands of Americans who supported the Nazi party? I guess I should. The fact that the most predominant voices of appeasement are from the right of the political spectrum, has me incredulous, we are after all talking about a fight against our arch enemy Russia, who the right vowed to destroy since around the time Gen Patton first voiced it in 1945. The right (and I want to be clear it’s not all right leaning people, by far) is joined on its path by the radical left, who denounce the Ukrainian Nazi govt (a Jewish lead government it has to be said, but let’s not get confused by facts), what strange bedfellows we have here, the American right, alongside communists, leftists, fascists, all pushing the same message. What happened America?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595539076165386241

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595736150047887360

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595654696789647360

 

[pardus]

Forget the twitter comment, read what the Russians are saying, openly advocating war crimes, and that they were hoping for a good result for Russia from the American midterm elections. Russia our enemy is hoping for the right wing of American politics to come to their rescue and allow them to continue their slaughter and kidnapping of men women and children in Ukraine.
Politics in this country disgust me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595609859906756608

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

First off nobody is advocating for a Russian occupied Ukraine. Russia needs to be back in their borders and should face devastating consequences. How that happens, I am not sure.

Trying to turn this into a "the United States is fucked up b/c xyz" is dumb. Ukraine would've been walked right the fuck over if it wasn't for the military aid that we have given over the past 7 years. Training, weapons, equipment, etc.

Ukraine agriculture is important to Europe, its important for national sovereignty to be respected and defended. War crimes and war damages need to be accounted for and Russia should absolutely be punished.

However, if you think Ukrainians and their national territory should be completely destroyed to accomplish that, or are willing to see that happen, to beat the big red bear, I am sorry we simply disagree. Russias ace in the hole is nuclear, the world as a whole is not going to have a full on response to Russia, unless they use them, Russia knows this, so the only real way the rest of the world jumps into this war "officially" is if/when Ukraine gets nuked. At which point we have WW3 and a nuclear conflict in Europe. I am sorry, but I don't see how the fuck that is good for anyone on this planet, much less the Ukrainians. I am simply advocating for a more peaceful solution, where Ukraine comes out holding their heads high and independent, Russia goes home with their tail between their legs, and the world doesn't have a nuclear wasteland in Eastern Europe.

Idk, I guess that pretty un-American of me...

 

[DA SWO]

First off nobody is advocating for a Russian occupied Ukraine. Russia needs to be back in their borders and should face devastating consequences. How that happens, I am not sure.

Trying to turn this into a "the United States is fucked up b/c xyz" is dumb. Ukraine would've been walked right the fuck over if it wasn't for the military aid that we have given over the past 7 years. Training, weapons, equipment, etc.

Ukraine agriculture is important to Europe, its important for national sovereignty to be respected and defended. War crimes and war damages need to be accounted for and Russia should absolutely be punished.

However, if you think Ukrainians and their national territory should be completely destroyed to accomplish that, or are willing to see that happen, to beat the big red bear, I am sorry we simply disagree. Russias ace in the hole is nuclear, the world as a whole is not going to have a full on response to Russia, unless they use them, Russia knows this, so the only real way the rest of the world jumps into this war "officially" is if/when Ukraine gets nuked. At which point we have WW3 and a nuclear conflict in Europe. I am sorry, but I don't see how the fuck that is good for anyone on this planet, much less the Ukrainians. I am simply advocating for a more peaceful solution, where Ukraine comes out holding their heads high and independent, Russia goes home with their tail between their legs, and the world doesn't have a nuclear wasteland in Eastern Europe.

Idk, I guess that pretty un-American of me...

I don't see Europe responding with nukes after a Russian Tactical Nuke strike.

NATO release procedurens are more restrictive then ours, and Biden isn't launching ICBM's after a strike on Ukraine.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

I don't see Europe responding with nukes after a Russian Tactical Nuke strike.

NATO release procedurens are more restrictive then ours, and Biden isn't launching ICBM's after a strike on Ukraine.

I agree, however, I do think we will 100% end up in direct armed conflict with Russia if they use nukes and if they are already whipped to a point of using nukes on Ukraine, why wouldn't they with a NATO member...?

But again, my point is why allow this shit to go that far? How about we stay with no nuclear weapons get used, Russia goes back within their borders with egg on their face, the world sanctions the fuck out of Russia and gives it to Ukraine to rebuild.

Well atleast it's an idea, regardless how fairytale it maybe.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Detaching from the emotional state of things, it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to become a nuclear waste land so that we can keep Russia pinned down for the next 50 years. Is it better for the world as a whole, sure, for Ukraine, not so much.

I understand your POV, but what you are stating, leaves Ukraine fucked...period. Being pro-western in a country that you can barely occupy, is simply stupid.

But anyway, I was just giving an opinion. Not looking to spend hours defending it, or supporting it. At this point Russia has two options, go full retard and throw every last bit of military strength and hope they win, or go nuclear. Either scenario are terrible for Ukraine. Its time to start seeing a bigger picture, avoiding catastrophic destruction and planning for the future of Ukraine, before there is no Ukraine.

Not really for a tit for tat on this one, but neutrality didn't serve them in the past and it won't serve them in the future. I think the only country where neutrality served well has been Switzerland. But even then they made concessions to the Nazis and only avoided invasion because of the gains we made in North Africa and the invasion of Italy.

Ukraine gave up its Nukes on the promise of non-aggression from Russia. How bad of a decision was that? If anything only having Nukes keeps you protected.

Forget the twitter comment, read what the Russians are saying, openly advocating war crimes, and that they were hoping for a good result for Russia from the American midterm elections. Russia our enemy is hoping for the right wing of American politics to come to their rescue and allow them to continue their slaughter and kidnapping of men women and children in Ukraine.
Politics in this country disgust me.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595609859906756608

Generally the pro "Russian" politicians in the US don't exist. What are we talking one person who doesn't hold any credence? And don't give me any of the "Lauren Boebert or MTG said this" nonsense either. Compared to the Squad they're barely catching up. Yes that's a whataboutism but I ask we apply the same level of scrutiny on them...which hasn't been done as the media other than Fox is a liberal institution. So those people are never held accountable.

There was no anti-Ukraine congress ever coming into the fold. So their pundits are pretty brainwashed. What many people are asking for time and again is that we fully deliver and account for aid before passing another aid bill. Or at least get to 80% of fulfillment. Or just do better projections. However, I suppose the more war crimes we uncover and the more multi-day missile barrages that target water treatment plants and pump stations, the more ammo our politicians have to grant aid.

This congress told the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Jonathan Sopko, to shut his mouth and color inside the lines instead of finding out where our trillions of dollars went.

ETA:

I agree, however, I do think we will 100% end up in direct armed conflict with Russia if they use nukes and if they are already whipped to a point of using nukes on Ukraine, why wouldn't they with a NATO member...?

But again, my point is why allow this shit to go that far? How about we stay with no nuclear weapons get used, Russia goes back within their borders with egg on their face, the world sanctions the fuck out of Russia and gives it to Ukraine to rebuild.

Well atleast it's an idea, regardless how fairytale it maybe.

Russia has been whooped to the point where Putin needs to "strategically withdraw" from everywhere except Crimea and the half of Donetsk and portion of Luhansk they controlled ante bellum. But he won't. He's mobilizing more men, giving them two weeks of training, and sending them to their death. He is creating a lost generation. Every day is another chance to pull back, would that make him weak? Would that get him deposed? Possibly on both. But considering they're committing genocide in Ukraine every day while they get beaten back (interesting, maybe have those guys at the front instead of raping and murdering civilians), I get your point of view. Yet it does not acknowledge the crimes being committed. And that's why this won't end until the Russian Army sounds retreat.

In a previous post you also said Russia needed to pay reparations, honestly if full withdrawal to pre-war lines plus reparations was on the table, this would be over in a couple of days. Alas, it is not.

 

[Diamondback 2/2]

Ukraine trying to join NATO for well over a decade, is not what I would consider neutral. I am by no means defending Russian actions, they're appalling to say the least. But to state that Ukraine was neutral after what happened in Georgia, is stretching it a bit. Also to act like the United States didn't have their dick in the mashed potatoes for the last decade is a bit far fetched as well.

The bottom line is the United States is using Ukraine as a proxy force to fight Russia, and Russia is getting its ass kicked. Russia doesn't like having it ass kicked, and has no problem upping the stakes, that is not good for Ukraine, not good for Eastern Europe and has a high likelihood of putting the US and or NATO in direct open conflict with Russia.

Russia has been revamping their military for years (obviously not well), but they have invested into modernization. They have been attempting to establish themselves as a regional super power, Georgia, Syria, Ukraine, etc. They're not likely to have the world view them as a military incompetent foe, by being beaten by a NATO supplied Ukraine.

Without some form of peace/seize fire deal, Russia will use nuclear weapons. They will have to inorder to maintain some form of stature of a dominant regional power. That doesn't do anyone in the world any good. So again, my point is that, some smart people need to step in and cool this fucking thing down, before it gets to that point. Give Ukraine a win "we got the Russian invader to leave and defended our territory, give Russia an out where they don't look completely foolish to the rest of the world, and sanction the fuck out of Russia to pay to rebuild Ukraine.

Or just fuck it, burn this bitch to the ground and we can all deal with the effects of a nuclear war... Not like our kids will have to deal with the consequences of our stupid inability to find a solution to elementary school problem.

 

[Gordus]

I think we all agree, that Russia should return to its borders and nukes remain on their launchers.
But Russia isn’t even ready to give up their occupation of main land Ukraine, calling it unrealistic demands. Let alone Crimea.
On the other side, Ukraine is not willing to ever give up any of the occupied regions, including Crimea, voluntarily.
I suspect that the negotiations are equally stubborn and completely fruitless. There simply is no kind of common ground right now and let’s be honest, the mediator, you know who, is mostly acting in their own interests. Diplomatically, this is currently looking like a complete ****show. I don’t like where this could be heading either and really wish it won’t escalate to that level.
In any case, just wanted to say that despite some disagreement, I believe we all have our hearts in the right place on this.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Russia hasn't been at a negotiating table since they were outside of Kiev. I don't see them coming to the table until they've been beaten out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts.

A diplomatic solution requires a relatively willing partner, right now Lavrov and Putin ain't going to no table. So I don't understand the posts about Ukraine must do nothing when they don't acknowledge the genocide and other war crimes committed by Russia. Ukraine would come to the table if there was a serious offer, even when the Russian Army was miles outside Kiev and the offers weren't serious (Russia wanted half of Ukraine), Ukraine was at the table.