Ukraine - Russia Conflict

ThunderHorse said:
Russia hasn't been at a negotiating table since they were outside of Kiev. I don't see them coming to the table until they've been beaten out of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts.

A diplomatic solution requires a relatively willing partner, right now Lavrov and Putin ain't going to no table. So I don't understand the posts about Ukraine must do nothing when they don't acknowledge the genocide and other war crimes committed by Russia. Ukraine would come to the table if there was a serious offer, even when the Russian Army was miles outside Kiev and the offers weren't serious (Russia wanted half of Ukraine), Ukraine was at the table.
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You have an odd way of putting words in someone's mouth. Nobody has said that "Ukraine should do nothing"🤨

I said Ukraine needs to get right with Crimea and eastern separatists region becoming autonomous governments, with Russia within the Russian border, and that Ukraine needs to take a neutral position between NATO and Russia, if they want to survive as a country and not become a nuclear dump.

For fuck sake, the sensationalism you're projecting is ridiculous. Nothing new about genocide by Russia or many other eastern European countries, over the last century. I am not excusing it or saying it doesn't matter, we have ways of dealing with that post conflict, nothing new there. Nuclear war, kinda a different fucking story.

Again, the point is a third party, who could negotiate a non-nuclear war, and bring an end to this mess, is in the Ukrainians and Russians best interests...

I mean what are you arguing for? They killed massives amounts of Ukrainian citizens, so we should not intervene and allow it to turn nuclear, so more Ukrainians can die? Russia should pay in blood? NATO should go to war with Russia?

Russia is a fucking nuclear power, and willing to use them... Get real dude, we are not burning the globe down for Ukraine...FB_IMG_1669333976001.jpg
 
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Russia won’t use nukes. They are rattling sabers and postering because they know it will get our attention.

But chemical or biological weapons? We showed the world what our red line was in Syria. We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.) Putin would totally use those while we’re distracted by the threat of nukes.
 
AWP said:
We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.)
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I don't even think it'll get into a demographic reason to ignore it.

How much did we hear about the chemical attacks in Syria through mainstream channels?

A week or so at best?

It seems like chem/bio weapons are in a narrative blindspot for some reason.
 
Diamondback 2/2 said:
You have an odd way of putting words in someone's mouth. Nobody has said that "Ukraine should do nothing"🤨

I said Ukraine needs to get right with Crimea and eastern separatists region becoming autonomous governments, with Russia within the Russian border, and that Ukraine needs to take a neutral position between NATO and Russia, if they want to survive as a country and not become a nuclear dump.

For fuck sake, the sensationalism you're projecting is ridiculous. Nothing new about genocide by Russia or many other eastern European countries, over the last century. I am not excusing it or saying it doesn't matter, we have ways of dealing with that post conflict, nothing new there. Nuclear war, kinda a different fucking story.

Again, the point is a third party, who could negotiate a non-nuclear war, and bring an end to this mess, is in the Ukrainians and Russians best interests...

I mean what are you arguing for? They killed massives amounts of Ukrainian citizens, so we should not intervene and allow it to turn nuclear, so more Ukrainians can die? Russia should pay in blood? NATO should go to war with Russia?

Russia is a fucking nuclear power, and willing to use them... Get real dude, we are not burning the globe down for Ukraine...View attachment 40984
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Am I putting words in your mouth? If anything my posts have been counter points. You said to remove emotion from this and Ukraine should just concede and be willing to live with the results but that Russia should pay reparations. I have acknowledged them and I said that if Russia withdrew to pre-war borders and paid reparations this would be over in days. Yet I also pointed out the tremendous cost that Russia has exacted on Ukraine. I've used the word genocide several times, and this is important. They have murdered Ukrainian civilians and soldiers en masse. They have removed children from their parents in Ukraine and put them up for adoption. So for Ukrainians, this war will not be over until they've retaken all of their lost territory. Crimea will not be a serious objective until they've retaken all of Donetsk. This will be at least 6 months from now, for as much as they've regained there remains almost 32,000 square miles of territory to regain before they even think about invading Crimea.

Yes, Putin has nukes. But if he hasn't used them now, why would he need to use them?

As I said, he's mobilizing tens of thousands of conscripts to throw rights into the meat grinder that is this war. He is creating a lost generation of Russians. He has no intent to stop, except for using that last thing in his arsenal which is Nukes. Not that he needs those. Mariupol basically doesn't exist anymore because he had his armies shell it into oblivion. The same goes for several other Ukrainian cities. He's currently using long range ballistic missiles to target all of Ukraines water and power infrastructure.

So here we are, a conventional war which will last into next Summer.

On the Russian Army modernization front, that was under the previous defense minister. He was run out of town and gets to supervise helicopter engine construction. Shoigu reversed many of those programs that were meant to professionalize the NCO Corps and upgrade equipment. Basically, the corruption within the Russian Army continued. Many times in this thread we've gone over the losses of the Russian Army. The thing is basically toast. Just a matter of time. Ukraine? Morale is high and they have a noble cause.

ETA:

AWP said:
Russia won’t use nukes. They are rattling sabers and postering because they know it will get our attention.

But chemical or biological weapons? We showed the world what our red line was in Syria. We’d actually offer a response if a bunch of white Europeans are killed? ( Don’t hate on me, that will be the narrative and you know it.) Putin would totally use those while we’re distracted by the threat of nukes.
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Actually, this was the exact criticism of the West's response to Rwanda in 1993, under the UNAMIR mission. The poor response was directly compared to the NATO Intervention mission to Bosnia in 1992. So it's likely that there would be a different tact taken by the west if homie let loose some nukes. But, why does anyone think he'd only target Ukrainian cities if he launched nukes?
 
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That is also true.
Remember how many times since 24th February, Putin threatened the West with serious consequences if they decided to get involved, be it only with weapons, not to mention heavy weapons deliveries ? They even rolled out some of their Topols for a night, to make "implications“.
Well the West decided to get involved knee deep regardless and turns out, that it has been one giant Russian bluff so far. Will it remain one, down the road ? Lets see. The US say they closely monitored any changes in their nuclear posture.

Consider something that might support this: Russia is willing to deploy nukes if they were to ever be invaded. From Russian POV, with the recaptures as a result of the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives, Ukraine has literally conquered and occupied Russian territory. This is seen as such, not only by propagandists, but also gov & public. All that happened in both cases, was an "organized withdrawal". All that came back from Peskov was, that ppl should just remember, those were Russian lands.
Putin doesn’t seem ready to use nukes for his annexed separatist enclaves, that he himself now legally considers part of Russia, the same way as Crimea.
 
Atrocities are just tactical options for Russians, especially when things start to go south. Add into that raw conscripts—and Putin is said to be sending convicts now to help fill the ranks.

I’m in agreement with those who think Putin might resort to tactical nukes if Russia proper is breached, although I think that’s unlikely.
 
Gunz said:
Atrocities are just tactical options for Russians, especially when things start to go south. Add into that raw conscripts—and Putin is said to be sending convicts now to help fill the ranks.

I’m in agreement with those who think Putin might resort to tactical nukes if Russia proper is breached, although I think that’s unlikely.
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Russian territory is not getting invaded, NATO would cut Ukraine's aid off in a day, and that would kill any hopes of a UK victory.
 
Gunz said:
Any incursion on to Russian soil would be a grave mistake in any case, regardless of NATO.
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The point I was trying to make earlier was how will Crimea and the Eastern separatists be viewed? Putin has already recognized them as autonomous governments/territories/whatever. Will he view them as Russian territory?

I whole heartily agree, if Ukraine pushes 5 kilometers into Russias border, the birds fly...period.
 
Diamondback 2/2 said:
The point I was trying to make earlier was how will Crimea and the Eastern separatists be viewed? Putin has already recognized them as autonomous governments/territories/whatever. Will he view them as Russian territory?

I whole heartily agree, if Ukraine pushes 5 kilometers into Russias border, the birds fly...period.
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I'd have to look for it but I believe Putin already declared all held territory as Russian territory.
 

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