Ukraine - Russia Conflict

Good summation from Janes on potential operations as Winter ebbs.

Ukraine conflict: As spring approaches, what next for Ukraine and Russia?


Well, if we could deliver half the weapons and ammunition that's been authorized from just the US alone...it will be a lot of dead Russians and retaking a lot of territory regained. If we can't even deliver a 10% of that it will be pretty shitty. I can't find the graphic now, but it showed how much has actually been authorized across all of NATO vs what was delivered. We keep promising a lot of shit...but not actually delivering most of ti.
 
Well, if we could deliver half the weapons and ammunition that's been authorized from just the US alone...it will be a lot of dead Russians and retaking a lot of territory regained. If we can't even deliver a 10% of that it will be pretty shitty. I can't find the graphic now, but it showed how much has actually been authorized across all of NATO vs what was delivered. We keep promising a lot of shit...but not actually delivering most of ti.

Pesky logistics.
 
We're up to 8 Leopard 2 tanks and a Buffalo recovery vehicle. I saw recently they are training crews in simulators in Poland, already. We'll see how long they last.

Canada will send four more tanks, artillery ammunition to Ukraine, Trudeau says

How Canadians are training Ukrainian troops to fight back against Russia's dirty tactics

I think they will wait until there are sufficient numbers. Very recently Rheinmetalls CEO announced that they were trying to set up a tank plant in Ukraine to produce the brand new Panther (KF51), right there. Stating that annual output could be as high as 400 vehicles.
But I'm pretty sure, Russia would have a say in that, if they are serious and were to really implement such a venture. They would probably not care, if Germans incl military, were killed in missile strikes. Regardless of wheter they were hitting NATO personnel.
 
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I think they will wait until there are sufficient numbers. Very recently Rheinmetalls CEO announced that they were trying to set up a tank plant in Ukraine to produce the brand new Panther (KF51), right there. Stating that annual output could be as high as 400 vehicles.
But I'm pretty sure, Russia would have a say in that, if they are serious and were to really implement such a venture. They would probably not care, if Germans incl military, were killed in missile strikes. Regardless of wheter they were hitting NATO personnel.

Germans building manufacturing capabilities while under the threat of air attack. Maybe they should think about getting together a bunch of people and put the facilities underground. It will take a lot of labor, and while not all solutions are final, if anyone can pull it off, it's the Germans.
 
Germans building manufacturing capabilities while under the threat of air attack. Maybe they should think about getting together a bunch of people and put the facilities underground. It will take a lot of labor, and while not all solutions are final, if anyone can pull it off, it's the Germans.

Jesus
 
Germans building manufacturing capabilities while under the threat of air attack. Maybe they should think about getting together a bunch of people and put the facilities underground. It will take a lot of labor, and while not all solutions are final, if anyone can pull it off, it's the Germans.

Man. Not sure wheter your comment makes me feel more uncomfortable, or the fact that we named our latest tank "Panther" and can't wait to deploy it in Ukraine for a little Kursk payback to supplment the AFUs tank fleet.
 
Germans building manufacturing capabilities while under the threat of air attack. Maybe they should think about getting together a bunch of people and put the facilities underground. It will take a lot of labor, and while not all solutions are final, if anyone can pull it off, it's the Germans.

I once saw a show where a team of imaginative Germans surreptitiously built a large underground laboratory under a commercial laundry facility. They did construction mainly over night burrowing into packed earth and bedrock using drilling and even explosives at one point.

Put together this whole ruse to keep the locals in the dark as to what was going on. Pretty good show.
 
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I once saw a show where a team of imaginative Germans surreptitiously built a large underground laboratory under a commercial laundry facility. They did construction mainly over night burrowing into packed earth and bedrock using drilling and even explosives at one point.

Put together this whole ruse to keep the locals in the dark as to what was going on. Pretty good show.
Not kidding, I'm curious as to what show this is.
 
Germans building manufacturing capabilities while under the threat of air attack. Maybe they should think about getting together a bunch of people and put the facilities underground. It will take a lot of labor, and while not all solutions are final, if anyone can pull it off, it's the Germans.

Mike. Drop.
 
They are apparently claiming it was a pro-Ukrainian group of 6, including two divers, that rented a yacht through a Poland-based company, and then dropped the explosives onto the pipe.

Sounds far fetched, or over simplified for the sake of the reader. But the first thing I thought of when they said the explosives were dropped onto the pipe, was that plexiglass game in old Taco Bell’s where you dropped a coin onto the shelf in the aquarium to win free cinnamon twists.

 
What are the odds of dropping it close enough to the pipe with the currents?
It's gotta basically be 0, right?

Unless they're just going WWII and mass dropping depth charges, I can't see it working.

Now if they were guided munitions maybe that'd be more believable that they "dropped them overboard" but that would heavily imply they got training and gear from a state actor.

I'm not sure of any UUVs in the civilian market that could be turned into ieds the way we've seen with UAS, but maybe that could be a possibility as well?
 
What are the odds of dropping it close enough to the pipe with the currents?
The same odds as a team of six dudes without agency or state sponsored help of any kind renting a yacht with fake names and aliases acquire dive gear (if diving), military grade explosives, timers, detonators, marking equipment and whatever else they needed without making it on an international watch lift. Then they would need to make movement to the pipeline RIGHT in the middle of a massive naval exercise that was HUGE (BALTOPS22) where a civilian yacht would be interdicted at the very least, boarded at most likely. Then this yacht full of six bros somehow (after constructing said time delay charge) has to Taco Bell (great ref @JedisonsDad ) that shit so it blows up Nord 2, but so precisely that it doesn't go 3.1 miles off course and hit Nord 1, or miss altogether.

And then, accepting all the above, we would just have to agree that Jennifer Neuland and Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken were just bluffing when the said that there was an "opportunity" to take the pipeline out and that "we can make the nord stream no more if Russia continues."

The odds are exactly even. It's zero.
 
Check your misogyny @amlove21 one of the six “bros” was a female.

They article does say two divers, so there is the potential for tri-mix or ccr taking them to the 260-360ft depth, but both would require significant hang time for deco. The “several hundred kilos of explosives” adds a different aspect. Sure, they could have scooters and lift bags, and maybe the buoyancy changes once in the water.

But like amlove states, that would not be a small yacht that could be ignored during an exercise once you fit the explosives, the dive gear (multiple tanks/rebreathers/sorb aren’t small), and the personnel. Also, the pipeline was attacked in four separate locations. The depth, bottom time required, and exertion needed to emplace the charges would not be capable by “two divers” as the article states. At least not in a realistic timeline, without them dying of the bends or taking a massive CNS hit/ox-tox.
 
Check your misogyny @amlove21 one of the six “bros” was a female.

They article does say two divers, so there is the potential for tri-mix or ccr taking them to the 260-360ft depth, but both would require significant hang time for deco. The “several hundred kilos of explosives” adds a different aspect. Sure, they could have scooters and lift bags, and maybe the buoyancy changes once in the water.

But like amlove states, that would not be a small yacht that could be ignored during an exercise once you fit the explosives, the dive gear (multiple tanks/rebreathers/sorb aren’t small), and the personnel. Also, the pipeline was attacked in four separate locations. The depth, bottom time required, and exertion needed to emplace the charges would not be capable by “two divers” as the article states. At least not in a realistic timeline, without them dying of the bends or taking a massive CNS hit/ox-tox.
If that chick was hard enough to be included on this Title 50 op, she's a bro. Plus you don't know her pronouns, so you're cancelled.
 
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