On Nov. 3 I made a post where the Soviets were down 1306 tanks destroyed or captured. 15 days later that number is 1379. Every two days another tank company is destroyed which is the armor capability for 7 battalion task groups.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict
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Definitely a war of attrition. Using the old 3:1 force ratio for offensives, it certainly doesn't appear the Soviets are in a position to advance anywhere for awhile and they're not in complete control of any of the four regions Putin annexed. Even if they had the numbers, they clearly don't have the experience. Winter is coming.
How much longer does Putin have and then what?
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Watching the Ukraine strategy will be interesting. Do they ignore Crimea and the two areas under Rebel control (pre Feb2022)? then go after those areas? Do they retake everything except Crimea? Will Putin allow Crimea to fall?
Putin huffs and puffs as long as the 3 areas are still under Russian control. IMO the real danger occurs when those final three areas start falling.
I kinda doubt it's anything close to 100k KIA. That would mean, the total casualties run in the hundreds of thousands.
Personaly, I think Russia has easily lost more than 100.000 killed, wounded, sick, missing and captured at this point and those include their most combat ready or capable troops. I also believe Russian losses are still higher than Ukrainian. But at the same time I fear, they are not dramaticaly higher. The Ukrainians lost many people in Kherson and Donbas.
Austrian Col. Reisner made a very insightful video ( link ) about what Russian forces were dealing with in Donbas. We are talking defenses and trench systems that are several lines deep, supported by reserves on standby. Terrain and natural obstacles, smartly integrated into the Ukrainian defenses. Bastions and fortifications, similar to WW1, that were built and expanded, since 2014, in anticipation of further Russian incursions and an inevitable war. We have to bear that in mind.
It's not only because the UAF concentrated the bulk of their troops there, that forced the Russians to throw tens of thousands more bodies, including remnants of the failed Kyiv offensive, into that one theatre. They had to reach a decicive strenght difference, to achieve breakthroughs.
Combine that with terrible tactics. On the one hand, deception and flanking maneuvers were employed, which seemed to work very well.
On the other hand, they resorted heavily on using the old Soviet tactic of trying to turn fortified positions into a moon scape and then head on assault them with mechanized infantry. Which, almost every single time resulted in them losing a bunch of troops and heavy vehicles, to entrenched Ukrainian infantry with AT weapons. They do that repeatedly, until they realize it was of no use and then simply keep dropping bombs to win a war of attrition by fire support. Basicaly it seems that the Russians kept losing troops to costly assaults, while the outnumbered Ukrainians were mostly grinded down by artillery. I think the exact reverse was happening to the Ukrainians in their Kherson counteroffensive.
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pardus
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***CONFIRMED***#Ukrainian maritime drone strike on Novorossiysk, far away from Odesa
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) November 19, 2022
It was initially reported in #Russia local media but then denials emerged. These are misinformation. It did happen.https://t.co/hHxeTTyU9k
pardus
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Reports are starting to come come in of a gas explosion in/near St Petersburg.
A powerful explosion occurred near St. Petersburg
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 19, 2022
The fire was caused by an explosion on the gas pipeline between Berngardovka and Kovalev - Governor of the Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko.
According to preliminary information, there are no casualties. pic.twitter.com/jNF1GrwHWu
Anything that happens will be attributed to Ukraine by the people (regardless of actual cause). That is good as it scares the Russian populace. Putin now has more issues on his plate.
pardus
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Geolocated.
GeoConfirmed.
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) November 19, 2022
"Powerful explosion in Russian St. Petersburg"
POV = 60.029157, 30.252806
GeoLocated by @auditor_ya and @trulolol2 https://t.co/XPuzELtoBW
pardus
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Is this is reference to my comment?
No. Post #2297
I agree with you on accountability of funds and materials and we can't fund all of Ukraine and rebuild the military.
Jeez. I get why the Ruskis are obsessed over Bakhmut, but they just keep hurling bodies ( link, link ) at it WW1/2 style, like nobodies business ...
Apparently the Wagnerites are paying a high toll there too.
Some material losses in the Bakhmut battle. One of Russias most advanced fighters among them.
Reminds me of the first 2-3 months.
Apparently the Wagnerites are paying a high toll there too.
Some material losses in the Bakhmut battle. One of Russias most advanced fighters among them.
Reminds me of the first 2-3 months.
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ThunderHorse
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Don't want to fight? To Gulag with Britney Griner you go!
Reminds me of basic training, had a kid refuse to train, 1Sgt calls company formation and has the MP's haul the kid off. I am sure they took him down the street to 30th AG and start his separation... But kinda that "scare tactic" of you refuse you go to jail... I always kinda thought that shit was dumb, who the fuck wants to be in training or combat, with someone who doesn't truly want to be there. Scaring the dude who is on the fence into going through with it, is a liability down the road, IMHO.
Anyway, just brought back an old memory...
